What is missing for some of the observers of the region’s issues?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The region’s events are being dealt in general according to their scenes which are separated in form, while all of them are linked organically with the scenes of the wars which extended from Syria to Yemen, Iraq, and Libya, based on the settlements’ conflicts and the difficult caesarean projects for the birth of consensual governments, along with inactive regimes without appealing that face the dangers of terrorism and the economic decline as Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, in addition to regimes and entities that suffer from the retreat and the regression, they launch noise and scream that replace their expressive silence in the days of power, they wage wars without horizons and settlements without courage compared with their ability to have control over the wars of others and their settlements in the days of glory, in this scene each of Saudi Arabia and Turkey participates. In the region there is an entity that dominated long on the platform of the decisive speech in the war, and has constituted a reverence of deterrence and overlapping network for the relations of the hegemony on the regional and the international arenas, but it feels the loss of place and prestige, it entered the aging of the inability of the war and peace together, moreover it became afraid of every coming event, so it shudders worrying from the peace of the weak and the war of the scared,  this is the situation of the occupation government.

In the same regional scene, Al Qaeda organization has appeared with its formations as a public fighter in the heart of alliances that it did not dream of, they include direct and indirect coalitions  that are extended from Washington and Tel Aviv and got the blessing and the support of each of Ankara and Riyadh, they invest on the example conflicts for their growth and which enable them to win so they affect deeply the social structure of each of Syria and Iraq, as well as the oldest parties of the political Islam which is represented by the Muslim Brotherhood has tested the opportunity of its arrival to the rule in the most important countries in the region Turkey and Egypt along with Tunisia and some of Libya, Morocco, Syria, and Jordan holding the flag of the resistance in Palestine, and above all a sufficient degree of satisfaction of Washington and Tel Aviv, but it could not dream of what is more or better, and despite that it is no longer possible to describe its experience but as the resounding upright falling which there is no rise behind, it struggles to keep what is left of it in Turkey and some of its remnants in the other countries.

On the other hand, regionally there is an equation that says that Iran is moving from being an isolated country which is chased by the name of the defector country to become a part of the equation in the club of the major powers and where its enemies are admitting of its status. Iran through the behavior of the capable country proves its eligibility to renew its political life vividly, it leads a collective attraction to its experience, and it proceeds in the scientific accomplishments and the economic growth. Syria as well appeared after it witnessed the most harsh wars, where many countries including armies, intelligence, funding, and media have conspired it, it was persecuted, punished, and banned, and despite all of that it appears as a coherent country that is able to overcome the calamites, as an eligible army that is able to achieve accomplishments in the field, as a wild force that is qualified to lead the war on terrorism, and a community that is far from the sectarian and ideological integration and far from being in the era of strives and the civil wars, despite what was plagued against it of tribulations and deformities and what some of its segments were affected with as charlatanry and clannishness, In the heart of the Iranian Syrian bilateral the resistance in Lebanon emerges as a surprising force in its capacity in managing the multi battles politically and militarily, it is a decisive force in the war of Syria without its deterrence balance against Israel being affected any more, it is occupied in the considerations of Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. It knows everything regarding the Lebanese presidency and the debates of the corruption’s scandals, suggestions of election laws, and the alliances of the municipalities, it was able with a miracle that was beyond estimation to achieve the two victories, its victory on Israel and its victory on the mysterious Al Qaeda organization which has prepared to fight it one day, and this day occurred.

Behind this regional scene there is an international scene that is no less apparent according to its variables, where the greatest country appeared to be losing its prestige and descended from the throne of individuality after years of obstinacy and stubbornness and after it tested all kinds of weapons from mobilizing the fleets to sanctions, mobilizing the allies, and the alliance with the devils and the goblins, the soft and savage wars towards the war of prices accompanied with the Atlantic alliance and an alliance of who wants, but opposed by Russia which is proceeding slowly to regain lost its status, and China which tries slowly to reserve a prominent seat in the economics of the new world, but during five years the scene has changed radically. Washington admitted of the Russian leadership of the settlement and the war in Syria. It is enough for reading the international equation to hear the speech of power and confidence of the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the speech of pretexts and justifications of the US President Barack Obama, and hearing the facts, conditions, and the solutions of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov and the speech of repudiation,  the foot dragging, tardiness, retrocession and the crying of the US Secretary of State John Kerry, the speech of clarity versus the speech of mystery, the speech we want versus the speech of what we wish, a speech that is proud of what it did versus a speech that is proud of what it did not.

The world and the region are changing radically, some are thinking of their previous analyses they imagine that Washington, Riyadh, and Ankara and who are with them are still young, and have a solution for every dilemma and a recipe for every problem, and if they kept silent or stammered then they would hide something that we do not know, from this point many people approach the war of Aleppo, some imagine a Russian Syrian conflict that its center is the abstaining of Russia to wage the war of Aleppo and its call for Syria to wage the war of Raqqa and Deir al Zour for pleasing Washington’s desire for the priority of the war on ISIS, or a reverse endeavor from Washington to make Syria and Russia involving in Aleppo to be alone in the war of Raqqa and Deir Al Zour, and since it is the war on ISIS so it is America’s own war. Some  imagine that it is a Turkish control of the matters and see that the Syrian loss will approach if the war does not reach to Turkey and if Turkey has not been treated the same under the slogan “let the missiles fall”, it is enough to remind that we heard repeatedly such of these analyses and calls before, on the day before the Russian veto in 2012 and then in Geneva negotiations, in each time there was an accumulation of the military and political accomplishments, there was a similar speech on Vienna path then on the day of the armistice, but the Russian military positioning has proceeded them and changed the war and its track, then they were followed by the war of Palmira. Between this and that the records of Syria are full of victories with the partnership of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah but they are slow, and through a solid gathering of politics and the filed. Turkey changes as others will change due to the wisdom, maturity statesmanship and the perfection of the rules of the regional and international game, and the realization of that the nervousness and the excitement as an expression of anger  of pain are acceptable but they do not benefit in making decisions.

Clearly it is the war of A Nusra,  it is the bottleneck which seems painful for Washington and it is difficult and semi impossible for its allies to pass it after a postponement for years, however the entitlements of Vienna Path, the resolutions of the Security Council and the content of the truce’s provisions have become ready, so where is Al Nusra it is the question of Lavrov to Kerry, if Al- Nusra was excluded of the armistice while it is the biggest force in Syria among the armed groups and for that you suggested it as your allies as an ally for the war on ISIS, so where this giant mouse would hide and in which sleeves, if the war against Al Nusra was a part of the truce’s provisions and its goals, so do you stay away from it to complete this fight or will you choose joining it? Thus the settlements will fail, if you do not tell this to your allies then what kind of your partnership in making the war on terrorism and leading the political settlement in Syrian?

The decision of liberating Aleppo and its countryside has been taken, it is the decision of Syria, it was approved by all the allies after Al Nusra emerged to the public from the coverage of the group of Riyadh from Geneva to the field, so what is going on is a conflict of the political coverage, it is closer to be the decisive chess move, “checkmate” so if it refused, the king would die and if it accepted then it would driven away after he became clinically dead.

In the background of the international and regional scene no one can forget the time, during this year Washington must complete the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan, and must devote itself for the presidential elections and the requirements of the foreign politics to serve the electoral game. Saudi Arabia ends a year of the big failure in Yemen, it needs to accelerate the getting out with less losses. While in Turkey half of the mandate of the ruling party is without achievements, and its second half seems to be melancholy, on the other hand, there are no imminent entitlements in the calendar, but a slowness in dealing with time and bearing the consequences of the slow move, in spite that it is a stable toward the victory or toward the honorable settlement. In Lebanon it is enough to measure according to simple equation that after a year of the end of the extended mandate of the parliament it is not possible to re-extend it according to the results of the municipal elections and what is going on to be in the region during this year, so those who depend on postponing the confrontation of the hour of truth have to be ready with their sand-glass, because the elections according to the law of sixtieth without understandings or comprehensive consensus after the new variables and alliances will be a scandal, while the search for a new law means other consensus, and a president from this parliament means a consensus before the end of the year, while a president from the coming parliament will mean surprises.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,