Al-Assad and the strategy of patience to agitate the forces of history and geography

Written by Nasser Kandil,.

The story of the Syrian President starts with the surprising and the miracle by adopting the patience as a philosophy to wade the war since the first days of war which Syria has exposed to, he has described it from the beginnings with the plot, but he has dealt with it as a reformist protesting movement apart from what his opponents want to describe him with, everyone who experienced the Syrian crisis from the beginnings can witness two facts: the first is the refusal of the Syrian President to permit the security members who are responsible to keep up with the gatherings and to deal with them from using weapons, and to punish everyone who caught along with ammunition for his personal pistol, without showing that there were not any events that the Syrian security was their initiator or allurer to violence, but on the basis of decision, the officials know the degree of restlessness and discontent in the structures of the security institutions from this strictness by the President Al-Assad in showing the maximum flexibility with the protesting gatherings, moreover the refusal of taking the Syrian army to the cities and the rural areas and assigning it to maintain the security throughout the first year of crisis. The President Al-Assad has adhered this policy despite what the police and security’ centers and some units of the army have exposed to through different attacks, he was always calling them to restraint and bear the harm, while he passed half of his time on reception of the groups from which the local leaders who confront the country were formed, he had a dialogue with them and consulted with them in the exists and solutions, they were mostly of low cultural degree of running such a dialogue. On the other hand he was insisting on renewing and repeating the attempts of the political dialogue with the symbols and the opposition figures, he has presented the initiative that followed by another to meet the demands of these groups despite their refusal of having a dialogue and be sufficient by calling for his departure, so he repeated the issuance of the amnesty’ decrees which most of their beneficiaries were retuning back to the battlefield, he had gone further than the demand of the opposition by amending the constitution and  abolishing the Article III  of the constitution. When he paved the way for parliamentary and presidential competitive elections, the opposition has refrained to interact by just turning the debate as described by them of not being serious to an opportunity to win a media battle that proves by facts the useless of the bet on negotiated solutions, so the opposition has refused to present its conditions to prevent the seriousness of the competition in  the election which considered it its plea to boycott and to try to win the round by imposing its conditions or showing that the country is not ready to ensure the conditions of this seriousness as is assumed by any opposition.

Since the beginnings it was possible for any observer of the behavior of the President Al-Assad towards the war to verify easily the president’s certainty of the useless of the procedures or the decisions which he takes in the pursuit of a negotiating solution, and his certainty that the coming is greater, and that the war is bigger than a battle with a local team that has his contrary vision to Syria as a country and as a regime, but he waded his indirect war which is based on the philosophy of patience through this first stage of behavior and managing by providing  the opportunity to his people, party, army, and his allies to form an understanding that corresponds with his understanding for what is going to be and what will be, because of his parallel certainty  that they are the basis on which he will depend when the negotiating phase is fallen, so he will go out of it accompanied with the majority of people, party, army , and allies with similar certainty of the useless of the negotiated solutions. Whenever the level of the disclosure increases in the backgrounds and the behaviors of the military camp which is determined with a timetable for its war, the level of certainty will increase that what is going on is a war and has no other description.

In the second phase of the war, when the weapon has become the decisive tool, and when Hilary Clinton has said in 2012 for those whom she called the rebels “Do not accept to lay down the weapon and the political negotiation”, and causing the failure of UN envoy Kofi Anan’s mission, the military administration which the President Al-Assad has drawn its lines has based on the steadfastness and protecting sites and strategic lines from falling at the grip of the armed groups, so the philosophy of war according to him was based on a new patience equation that aimed to reveal the deep dimensions of the war as long as it becomes a blatant war, then  it has been revealed that it is a foreign war not a civil one, and the terrorism has appeared as a governing and crucial component  in forming the structures which fight against the Syrian country, so he has granted the second opportunity for the people, party, army and allies to meet him on this basis to understand the war, and has restricted  the duties of the army and the security militarily in a way that permits the highest degree and the broadest range of steadfastness within a political non military goal, it is a clarification and confirming of these two backgrounds governing dimensions of war; the external dimension and the magnitude of the terrorism’s role, when this has been achieved the phase of the third patience has started, it is the showing of the ability of Syria through its people, army and the cooperation of its allies by depriving this exterior and that terrorism from achieving victory. Instead of achieving victory the fleets have come and deported, the bet on the falling of the major cities has been failed. Syria has surpassed the examples of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen and has succeeded in luring the enemy to the theatre and entering it in deadlock where half victory means an attrition war and the danger of division. However, Syria is capable of more steadfastness till  the external motive of war is certain of its desperate tampering character of achieving victory by continuing it on one hand and the danger that stems from leaving the terrorism building the foundations of its own project, and invests on its mobilizes rather than making them suggest that they invest on it on the other hand, thus the admission of all including the enemies of the danger of the reconciliation with the lines of the geographical division of Syria because it will cause the vibrating of the cohesion elements in the entities such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey where the war’s decision–maker cannot bear such a vibrating, and it is impossible to stop that as long as the tampering in the cohesion of the geographical entity of Syria remains.

At this point the forth patience of Al-Assad starts, it is the providing of a platform of the opportunities of the historic victory in front of the allies through a global war that is waded against Syria which withstood and prevented the victory of its enemies which equal half of the world and more. Thus the decisive victory has one recipe it is a fair global war against terrorism which threatens all of allies and opponents, and which the conditions of war against it are consistent with the standards of international law, the criteria of human morals, the national interests of the countries and above all in politics, this is the terrorism which the enemies of Syria have made, brought it, provided the war the feature of divinity, and made it their slogan, they have violated the sovereignty of Syria by its name, it is the terrorism which facilitates today considering the war against it  by the allies of Syria their case, to protect their security and the security of the world without the need of any permission, after the enemies have plowed the land there is nothing left but to throw the seeds, so everything is ready in front of the failure of the other international alliance to see a new alliance  that achieves victory and wins the cane of the head by drawing the map of the new Middle East and through it a leading role in the new world system.

Al-Assad has betted on the strength of history and geography of the Syrians by an amazing confidence expecting in advance his victory in the first and in the second patience war, and he has betted on the strength of history and victory of his allies but by more confidence that causes the surprise expecting in advance his victory in the second and the third patience war. Now he ends the forth patience war to start his real military war towards the victory.