Egypt, turn to Lebanon

Written by Nasser Kandil,

On the shores of the Mediterranean Sea the movement of history is revolving by the strength of geography. Where the major conflicts are, the elements of the original strength emerge, and all the elements of exaggeration which resulted from money and media disappear. As in the competition of the Operative voices it starts without sound effects or playback and the microphones are taken from the competitors, as the countries, people, and nations become a pure ability at the ring of conflict; a geographical site, distance, borders, shores, rivers, and wealth on one hand and population, capacities, armies, intelligence, minds, and management on the other hand, with an additive value and an aura among them that is given or taken by the near or the far history. What the shores of the Mediterranean witness today  is not like what the near history is recording of events, that belonged to the phase after the emergence of Israel as “a military entity in the center of the region” Perhaps this is the first historic proof that the Israeli phase which dominated over the Mediterranean scenery and its shores for more than half of a century began to fade, it does not look like what is going on today in the near history except only the Napoleon’s military maneuver between Egypt and Acre, and in the far history the maneuver of the Alexander the Great on the Mediterranean coast to reach Persia, and the movement of Ramses toward Phoenicia and down to Cadiz

No one who reads the historical movements can neglect the opposite scene of the two West and East allies on the basis of the spread wars that started from the supporting of the West to Al-Qaeda Organization in Afghanistan against Russia to the invasion of the Americans of both Iraq and Afghanistan, towards the crucial event which is represented by Syria, after Israel had exhausted its functional role in the losing wars which it waded between the two wars of Iraq and Syria. At the historical moment of this crucial event the two opposite alliances crowd with all of what they have to decide the fate of the global system and the regional system, the real identities become clear, Turkey becomes the decisive West front as at the days of the Franks’ invasions which are named falsely Crusades, Here are the troops of Al-Qaeda Organization and the Muslim Brotherhood are wading the last chapters of the West wars, the Orthodox Russia and the Shiite Iran are positioning behind the civil Syria. These are the last expressions of the religious and popular association of the political sense in the region, the war is predicting in its consequences because the Eastern player has withstood in all the tours through his negative energy, he is sufficient with the steadfastness of his players on the ring, barely, he is announcing now the starting of his reverse attack after he has mastered all the arts of maneuver, positioning, readiness, and preparation, while the magicians of the West did not leave any  snakes or birds to get out of their sleeves, they have exhausted all the elements of the self, borrowed, and rented power.

The West is longer have but to follow the Eastern campaign by determining the losses and putting the controls to protect the last castles which have been represented by Saudi Arabia and Israel. On the other hand, Turkey looks reeling and after the succession of a cascade of rationality and political geography which will be active, there will be elections followed elections, a pipeline project followed by another, so in a short time it will be, according to the bilateral of history and geography the dynamic range that is consistent with an effective background that is encircled it from all its borders Russia, Iraq, Iran, Syria all the way to Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Greece. Therefore, there will not be any new roles on the Mediterranean except a traditional player that still maintains the balance of the game, it is the Egyptian player the biggest winner from the departure of the Muslim Brotherhood out of the equation of Turkey and the Mediterranean, this Egyptian player has all the elements of the ability to play a role among the major powers of the Mediterranean by the force of history and geography and the depth of the institution of the country.

Egypt is preparing itself because it is the substitute player which it cannot be interfered except in the time of settlements, it has been given for a period a distinguished relationship with the two parties of the engagement the Russian and the American, and in the main arena of the settlement in Lebanon where the positioning on the West and the East banks is surrounded by the fences of sects, doctrines, and the complexities of the roles of the consuls and embassies since the time of protections. A year ago the qualitative Egyptian maneuver was in the center of its traditional role when it led the settlement in Dar Al-Fatwa , but with the expected Saudi retreat for the coming months despite all the persistent attempts to prove the presence, the role of Egypt will proceed by the Saudi convention  and disregarding and after the Turkish elections to Syria and then to Lebanon, Egypt will turn to Lebanon but from the Syrian gate, is not that what has begun to emerge for months?