Erdogan wins the war of leadership against Bin Salman

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Over the eight years of the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have rivaled for the Islamic leadership. In the first quarter, Turkey made a progress when Qatar and Al Jazeera Channel were making “revolutions”, forming the governments in Egypt and Tunisia, and leading the war on Syria. The new Ottoman was a project that Washington was betting on to have control on Asia as its bets on the European Union to inherit Europe in the former Soviet Union. In the second quarter, Saudi Arabia preceded through the project of bringing down the project of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Tunisia, the return to the former regime under announced Saudi support, and through betting on Al-Qaeda organization under Saudi funding and sponsorship to win in the war on Syria. In the third quarter, Saudi Arabia and Turkey lost the bet of partnership on the nuclear understanding with Iran as they lost their contrary and common bets on the war on Syria through IISIS organization. The fourth quarter is approaching its end with the progress of the Saudi Crown Prince who put the Saudi money in the basket of the US President Donald Trump; it seemed that he will become the leader of the Islamic world, while Turkey seemed to be in a state of financial, political, and military decline.

By the end of the last quarter, Saudi Arabia loses and Turkey wins the leadership. Iran reserves the role of the peer and the partner, Israel reserves a regional role supported by Washington, while Egypt retreated from the leading. The Saudi Crown Prince seems stuck in the war of Yemen, while the Turkish President gets the Russian bill of insurance to get out of the war of Syria. And while the Saudi Crown Prince seems the title of the crimes against humanity in Yemen, the Turkish President is leading Idlib settlement which spared the region more blood. Saudi Arabia seems the partner of the US failure in “the deal of the century” which was born dead under the title of Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, while Turkey was able to deal rationally with the American-Iranian tension, knowing that the ultimate goal of Washington is the negotiation, and that the parallel leadership to Iran will be for the country which will be able to address it after the end of crises and in settlements. So it kept its sale of oil and gas from Iran despite the US sanctions, While Saudi Arabia did not hide its incitements of sanctions. Iran will not forget the positions. While Saudi Arabia is sitting in the bosom of America, Ankara succeeded in showing its alliance with the NATO and building its best relationships with Russia independently.

The issue of the disappearance of Jamal Al Khashoggi and the possibility of his death puts Saudi Arabia and Turkey face-to –face. Turkey acts rationally, its enhances the international indictment of Saudi Arabia on one hand, and prevents the provocation of a bilateral crisis with Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Arabia seems in a state of confusion after it committed the deadly mistake, it deludes  that the media campaign will get it out of the impasse. The western newspapers meet on the impossibility of the trust in the Saudi Crown Prince as a partner who represents the Islamic World in making politics, especially because the Pakistan elections came contrary to the Saudi desires in the light of the status occupied by Pakistan in the future of Afghanistan, and in the light of the status of the Pakistani and Afghani issues in the American considerations and in the Chinese-Iranian relationships.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,