Written by Nasser Kandil,
In the speech of the General Michael Aoun and among the claims of the uprising which occupies the arenas, there is what cannot be seen realistically, such as the call of the General Aoun to adopt the poll in electing a parliament for the President of the Republic, or the call of the uprising to overthrow the regime, it is a call that has not a content or identification, it is just nonsense. So it is enough to ask three of the activist leaders and not the ordinary participators about how to translate that motto, so you will find different answers that do not resemble the motto, moreover in the speech of the Gerneral Aoun and the claims of the uprising there is something that cannot be applied such as the call of the General Aoun to elect the president directly from the people, and the call of the uprising for the resignation of the government and the parliament. It is known that holding new parliamentary elections instead of the resigned parliament calls for the remaining of the government, but the formation of an alternative government of the resigned one calls for a President of the Republic, but there is a point of intersection between the speech of Aoun and the claims of the uprising that can no longer be ignored, it is an evitable maturity sooner or later, to put an electoral law on the relative basis and to go on in electing a new parliament accordingly.
The maturity of the law of relativity and the elections can be delayed, but it cannot be escapable, whereas the farer opportunity to postpone is the month which followed the election of a President of the Republic by the current parliament, those who postpone it are postponing a real coming confrontation, so if they are confident that they will lose the magnitude of the partnership which they represent through the current parliament, the intention here is Al Mustaqbal Movement and its allies so this is why they refuse the call of Aoun which precedes the presidential elections by a campaign against the legitimacy and the legality of the parliament, which calls for the elections on a relative basis that separate a new parliament that will elect the illustrious president, whose confidence stems from having a majority with his allies that enables him from winning the presidency, and they share with him this confidence, so what is the scenario which they follow practically and to where it will lead them?
The presence of the law of relativity and a parliament on its basis, in addition to the certainty of the wining of the General Aoun and his allies by the majority, according to Al-Mustqbal Movement means the bet on excreting pressure on the vacancy to alienate the General Aoun of his commitment to the nomination, so in return he will disrupt the quorum to reach for a conciliatory president, this is uncertain matter according to what is going on now, or the acceptance of a settlement that leads to make the General Aoun a president by this current parliament, and to have a government that lives months through which an electoral law emerges, where cannot escape of the maturity of the relativity, then there will be a new parliament and a new government. If the result of the presidency was a conciliation that alienates the General Aoun then the majority which Aoun and his allies got will have the role in nominating the new prime minister and the new government, so this will be actually what Al-Mustaqbal Movement has done to exclude itself from the presidency of the government and from the government in a country that is governed by constitution, where the government is constituted by the executive power and not by the presidency of the Republic, if the presidential choice is conciliatory in favor of the General Aoun then implicitly it would be through a deal that ensures for Al-Mustaqbal Movement a presidency of a government and an important share in the new government.
If Al Mustaqbal Movement does not feel worried of an electoral system that based on the relativity and it is confident that the current members will not change radically concerning the role of blocks in electing a new president and nominating a new prime minister as well as forming new government’s balances, so it is better for it to proceed in the matter immediately and to put the uprising and the General Aoun in front of a challenge to answer what’s next? It will have a pledge in advance from the General Aoun to stop disrupting the quorum after electing a new parliament on the relative basis, this would not take more than the end of the year if the intentions are pure, and this is less than the duration which the presidential vacancy needs as the optimists expect, this is according to the current deadlock. After elections on the relative basis there will be a parliament where it is not allowable for the two teams of the presidential deadlock to have the majority, and no one of them can disrupt the quorum, thus the conciliatory president will be obligatory to the General Aoun, and Al Mustaqbal Movement will have the opportunity towards less harsh conciliation, because the nomination of the Prime minister and the obtainment of confidence by the government does not need more than simple majority while the quorum for the presidential session cannot be achieved without a need for two-thirds conciliation of the deputies. The conciliation here will bring a president but not the General Aoun, thus he will ensure for Al Mustaqbal Movement as the situation with the current parliament the nomination of the prime minister and having the control over the most of the portfolios and having the majority surely.
If Al- Mustaqbal Movement is sure of the winning of the General Aoun and his allies by the majority according to the system of relativity, and goes on in approving the law and holding the presidential elections form the new parliament within positive equation, then the wining of the General Aoun of presidency will pave the way for making Saad Al-Hariri a Prime Minister even if he and his allies have not got the majority, therefore the balance of the two presidencies will be the demand of the allies of the General Aoun and under their guarantees, so the new government will be balanced too by the strength of concern about the national unity, which it is not possible to doubt about the concern of the allies of the General Aoun or to doubt about the liability of Aoun of it, at least after his arrival to presidency.
Al Mustaqbal Movement can address the General Aoun through a speech which its content is the continuous call for conciliation and electing the president from the current parliament, even if this parliament has lost some of its representative strength as a result of extending its mandate twice, whereas the legal argument is strong for those who say; how can the parliament be legitimate to adopt the electoral law, and not legitimate to elect a president? In this case Al Mustaqbal Movement has to wait for a long time to see what is going to be regionally and internationally, till his bet will be achieved by the pressure of outside on the local forces to terminate the presidential deadlock, this will be according to the bet of Al Mustaqbal Movement by turning the General Aoun from a presidential candidate, where the elections are disrupted because he is not elected, into a main voter who has the right of naming and the right of veto, but it may be contrary to this bet and according to the bet of the General Aoun by making the General Aoun a president, and to put pressure on Al Mustaqbal Movement to facilitate that according to Aoun’s speec; how can our party win internationally and regionally but defeated locally? And how will Hezbollah have a huge surplus power from its role in the war against terrorism and its victories in it, but does not have the right to spend this surplus in ensuring a president that supports it in this war. In this case this equation may include giving the position of the Prime Minister to the Head of Al Mustaqbal Movement but within an equation that is similar to the governments of the Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri in the era of the President Emile Lahoud.
If I were a politics-maker in Al Mustaqbal Movement then I would take all these considerations and take the initiative towards one of two matters, either to have an understanding with the General Aoun to occupy the position of a President in return of occupying Saad Al-Hariri the position of the Prime Minister for a conciliatory government, and the remaining of this equation throughout the new era whatever were the results of the parliamentary elections which will be held according to the law of relativity, and to prepare for the elections on this basis, if I am sure of winning then I will go on challenging, and if I am sure of the loss I will go on in conciliation, in any case this initiative will have a big effect in meeting the presidential demand on which the forces which support the uprising meet, either which have good intentions and which believe in the relativity and consider it a key for the solution and reform, or the forces which have bad intentions which raise the slogan of relativity formally and aim to embarrassing, so the country will be invited to an electoral workshop where the activists of the uprising must apply it at the ballots not in the arenas to show their legitimacy before suffering from the reactions which they direct against the current parliament after the elections. It is enough to imagine the announcement of the conciliation on the law of relativity according to the table of dialogue, and the magic effect which will cause to the country whether the law is approved and the parliamentary elections have taken place before the presidential elections or after them.