Written by Nasser Kandil,
A European security official who is still visiting Syria throughout the years of the crisis says that the issue of the Syrian refugees as far as it is an ethical Gulf scandal and a European human responsibility; it is a security political issue. It is a mistake to lose the compass in understanding this issue, it is like an inbox which the Turkish President Recep Erdogan has chosen to use it harshly in order to put pressure on Germany, since it is the first power-maker of the policies in Europe and the traditional partner economically and militarily for Turkey, in anticipation of any qualitative transitions in the German approach towards what is going on in Syria, which will change the equations and will afflict the Turkish policies in the depth.
The story begins with the security official who calls to observe the map of the conduct of the European railway and to regard attentively at the idea of releasing this stream of the Syrian refugees from Turkey, which will mean automatically the reach of the majority of them to Germany. The question is how Lebanon and Turkey despite the differences in distances, capacities and the difference in claiming the role towards Syria and the Syrians are two countries which are located on the Mediterranean Sea and facing Europe, are accommodating approximately the same number of the Syrian refugees, while the ratio of the attempts of going by sea to Europe from Lebanon constitutes compared with its similarities such as Turkey one to twenty-five or four percent. The logic says that as Turkey has involved in Syria, the magnitude of its intervention in the Syrian opposition and its geographical and economic size, it is supposed that it must accommodate at least ten times of what Lebanon is accommodating, or the ratio of the adventure by sea to Europe from Lebanon must be ten times of its similarities such as Turkey but not vice versa.
The European security official finds out that the direct Turkish role in creating the crisis of the displaced is through the continuous security escalation in the areas of the high population in the Northern of Syria including the raids against ISIS and the war against the Kurdish groups, without presence of any change in the military balances behind this escalation. The occupation of Idlib and Jisr Al Shogour by Al-Nusra front, the battles of Mare’ between Al-Nusra and ISIS, in addition to the brutal bombarded on Aleppo’s neighborhoods and most recently on Al Hamdaniya yesterday have only produced a quarter of million dislodged on the Turkish Syrian borders who are accompanied by security patrols till the borders of Greece. These have constituted the main reasons for the flood of the Syrian immigrants to Europe, in conjunction with a Turkish project that is presented to Europe and its governments in a threatening tone under the item of explaining the threats and the positive reasons, so this project displays in an indirect language the bet between the support of Turkey for establishing a buffer zone and an air embargo area and the threat of throwing the stream of refugees into the heart of the European capitals as a result of failure of establishing the buffer zone and its consequences.
In the early of August, when there was no way for the Turkish President to constitute with his party a new government and his need to call for early elections, he knows the impossibility of winning in it without an occurrence of a fundamental change in the Turkish political map, so he moved towards two goals, the first one is to meet the American calls to join the alliance of the war against ISIS in return of a green light to crush the Kurds, their political party and their military flank to deny them from gaining the parliamentary representation which pushed Erdogan and his party to lose the majority. Germany which constitutes the most important Kurdish demographic tank in the Diaspora outside the Middle East was the suspended force of this Turkish endeavor. The second goal is achieving an impressive external political accomplishment for the Turkish interior, where there is no way for expectation or bet except in Syria, therefore was the quick return for the theory of the buffer zone and the air embargo zone, and the goal was a Turkish domination on an important part of the Syrian geography by the power of the Western support, and through Patriot missiles which are erected on the Turkish borders with Syria, and which belong to each one of America and Germany. In the core of the project which Erdogan has explained there was an opportunity of accommodating one million and a half refugees whose destinations will be Germany if Turkey is not supported in establishing this zone.
During an entire month, the Turkish American German negotiations have taken place where the final word is granted to Germany, no for a buffer zone and no for an air embargo because this matter is an adventure that will lead to a comprehensive war as the German reports say about how Iran and Russia will interact with the resolution if this decision was taken, conversely, this zone will not have any outcome or an influence in accelerating the military solution and destabilizing the domination of the Syrian army, in addition the remaining of the Syria country and its powerful structures under the control on one hand, or in accelerating the political solution that allows its adoption as a option on the other hand. The Turkish reports were accusing Germany of the preparation to adopt a concept that based on the engagement with the Syrian country and its president as a way for the political solution, thus it cooperates with its Russian and Iranian partners, but the Germans do not deny this but they have explained their positive reasons such as that the Turkish intervention is responsible for the growth of the terrorism. As a result of the high tension in the speech, the negotiations have been turned into a confrontation ring through which Germany decided to announce its decision of taking back the Patriot missiles from Turkey at the end of the coming October, and it is followed by America, the deadline is the eve of the Turkish elections. Therefore, it is a harsh message to Erdogan, it encourages as well the Kurds whose their electoral room is in Germany.
The European official calls for following up the agenda of the flaming volcano of refugees and the accompanied politics. He wonders; Are not we in front of flood that is caused by the loose of turbines of the huge tank, it is our right to wonder who has opened these turbines and caused this flood, since it is known the mouth of water which flows heavily, and where it stops. He added that Erdogan was trying to drown Germany with this stream of refugees as a result of the failure of the buffer zone and the plan of hitting the Kurds. Germany has accepted the challenge with a smile, it greeted successively through the declaration of Austria the closer country to it in the external policy with the partnership of Spain, the call for a dialogue with the Syrian President in order to ensure the stability of Syria and Europe together. After that, the German Ministry of foreign affairs has taken the initiative to announce its satisfaction that the political solution and its transitional phase require a partnership with the Syrian President. The European security official sees that the areas of the Northern of Syria and maybe some areas of the countryside of Damascus where the Turks have influence will witness a security escalation till the end of the next October, which has no goal but throwing dozens and hundreds thousands of the refugees to Europe in general and to Germany in particular.
In each of his visits to Syria the European security official who visits Beirut talks with concern about the camps of the Syrian dislodges and their gatherings in Lebanon, fearing of the activation of the smuggling mafias which are financed by Qatar on behalf of Turkey, or that there will be events that oblige the Syrian refugees to leave because the tank of dislodging in the Northern of Syria is almost empty, while the Lebanese tank is the fullest and the most tempting to be at hand quickly.