Moscow changes the rules of the Israeli aircraft

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Those who did not concern about the Russian successive statements regarding the fall of the Russian military plane in the Mediterranean but to wonder whether Israel notified Russia of the raid before its occurrence wanted to drive the attention away from the true meanings of what has happened and what will happen. It is not new that the Russians have announced that the engagement rules which they settled when their forces deployed in Syria in the fall of 2015 prevented the collision with the Americans and the Israelis in the Syrian airspace, through the prior notification of any movement in the Syrian airspace. Moscow’s commitment did not include any confrontation with America and Israel in Syria; it has determined one mission in Syria during it’s positioning; to support the Syrian country by restoring its unity and sovereignty in its confrontation of the armed terrorist groups. Syria has understood the course of the Russian mission, appreciated its importance, and it is ready to bear the consequences of the confrontation with America and Israel without beholding Russia any of these consequences.

Concerning the cause of the targeted plane which was shot down by the Syrian S-200 Sukhoi defense missile, The Russian Ministry of Defense talked about an Israeli ambush to shot down the plane. The ceiling of what was expected to announce by Moscow after the confirmation that the plane was fell by a Syrian missile was the fact that the confusion resulted from the Israeli raids which caused that incident, but Moscow announced that it was notified lately deliberately and it was not granted the needed time as agreed to evacuate the airspace from any planes that might be affected by any confrontation. The issue here is not about will Moscow notify Damascus of that or no? Every time the Americans and the Israelis notify Russia of their prior movement in the Syrian airspace, but the Russian accusation based on the factor of time which was not reached a minute before the incident, and it is based on the sheltering of the Israeli planes by the Russian fuselage due to the Syrian missiles, which the Russians know very well as an exporter of these missiles that they track the fuselage thermally and were not from the modern models which track multiple technical encodings in the flying target. The Russians accused the Israelis of making this incident deliberately to affect the relationship between Russia and Syria and spread the suspicions between them through this incident on one hand, and at the backdrop of creating suspicions by the political and media means which are close to Israel that Sochi understanding about Idlib is a deal made by Russia at the expense of Syria on the other hand.

The level at which the Russians raised their accusation is not intended to reach collision. It is enough that Moscow thwarted Tel Aviv’s attempt to affect its relationship with Damascus, so it drove away the responsibility of Syria, it put a new context entitled the movement of the Israeli aircraft in the Syrian airspace, which its final title was the Russian statement issued by the Kremlin, it described the Israeli movement for the first time, as an illegal violation of the Syrian sovereignty. This has led to a political intrigue that was not considered by the Israelis in drawing the future of their role in the region, after they had drawn their plans by considering that the red lines which obstruct their flight are those which they accuse Russia of their drawing through  developing the capabilities of the Syrian Air Defense, and which succeeded in making most of the Syrian airspace forbidden to the Israeli aircraft, with the exception of what can be reached from sixty kilometer from the sea or from the Lebanese airspace, knowing that this issue is under the discussion too. Russia intended to change the rules of movement in the Syrian airspace, in order to make it forbidden to any flight that is not allowed by the Syrian country.  If this led to new rules of engagement accepted by the Israelis, they would be on a date with Russian –Syrian ambush to pay the cost of all the foolishness which they already committed, including causing deliberate shooting down of the Russian plane.

From the beginnings, many people did not believe that the Russian positioning in Syria which is based on the seeking to avoid any collision with America and Israel will lead in itself to a political and military dynamism that restricts the American and the Israeli movement, to the extent that Moscow goes beyond the abidance by rebuilding the Syrian defense in a way that enables it to protect the borders of this sovereignty.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,