Written by Nasser Kandil,
At the end of the third year of the Russian position in the war on Syria, Russia tries to protect and to fortify the meaning and the outcomes of this position resulted from its decision of taking the first strategic initiative in the history even during the days of the Soviet Union to intervene militarily through its armed forces in a war outside its borders and in a traditional American working area, that is bordered by Atlantic Turkey, Israel, and the American presence. Moscow had already put its weight to prevent any American intervention in it two years ago, although the American fleets reached off the Syrian coast, during organized successive, high ceilinged American words about the future of Syria and the future of the Syrian President in particular, whom the Russian forces came to support. Therefore this grants the Russian military initiative a qualitative position in the strategic considerations, at least the readiness to impose a fait accompli by force on the opposite major country represented by America.
Many observers and analysts do not know the magnitude and the kind of considerations and alliances made by the Russian leadership before taking such a decision, and with the progress of this track. It is wrong to think that we are in front of an ordinary Russian file. It is the first strategic file on the table of the Russian President. The achievement of its desired results depends on drawing the position and the role wanted by the Russian President in the international game, in other words; the western and the Arab recognition of the legitimacy of the rule of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and lifting the sanctions on the Syrian country.
The political solution in Syria, the fighting of terrorism, the return of the refugees, and the reconstruction are important vocabularies in the context of the Russian movement for Syria, but they are preceded by other vocabularies that their advanced position in the Russian discourse on Syria needs accurate considerations like how to improve the international and the regional variables resulted from the repercussions of the position in Syria in order to serve the desired end. These variables are related to the Russian concept of settlement and the political solution; entitled; the legitimacy of the Syrian country, its sovereignty, and unity under the leadership of the President Bashar Al-Assad.
Those who think that there are Russian interests in the talks held by the Russian leaders about the international position without Syria or those who think that any search for Syria is governed by an understanding of the Russian interest without a legitimate rule of the President Bashar Al-Assad during these three years are doing wrong. Those who follow-up the international and the regional position about Syria will discover easily a standard to judge the Russian success and failure, entitled the degree of the change of positions towards the rule of the President Bashar Al-Assad and the recognition of being an undeniable stable fact. The pressing problems have been exaggerated in the world due to this denial and obstinacy, where the spread of terrorism and the problem of refugees are just some of its outcomes.
Some people consider the Russian decision of the military position in Syria simple; they do not consider it a strategic shift of high risk, knowing that its risk is the direct and the indirect confrontation with Washington. Those also ignore the worrying tracks of the Russian-Turkish relationship due to this step and later the Russian-Saudi relationship and the Russian-Israeli one. The most notable ignoring is the size of the strategic agreement between Russia and each one of Iran, Syria, and the resistance led by Hezbollah, especially the understanding that in this process no one is left alone until achieving the common victory and in a way that preserves every party that is exposed to pressures and temptations or intimidation that are enough to tempt it to leave the alliance.
In front of these dazzling Russian successes in reaching advanced stages of the planned track, which some of them will be shown through the Russian-Turkish-German- French summit, many people think that the Russian-Iranian relationship is exposed to bargaining, and that Russia is disturbed and confused due to the American sanctions which targeted it when Turkey was against it in Syria. Now it targets Europe and Turkey the two former allies of America in Syria. Everyone who is concerned with the international equations in Moscow confirms that the strategic decision of Washington of getting out of Syria has been resolved, and the alliance which was formed for the war on Syria has been dismantled, while the winning Russian card is the alliance which it led to support Syria. Therefore the smooth investment of the achieved victories does not mean to abandon this card rather to protect it to gain more allies through the power of credibility shown by Russia in the Syrian war and in its alliance with Iran where it showed that it does not leave its allies. The summit which ended a few days ago about the Caspian Sea under Russian-Iranian leadership is still fresh, and the emergence of Turkish and Pakistani changes which were historic dream of Russia are achieved. Thus the Pakistani-Iranian-Turkish line that links Russia with China in the warm waters and which was dreamt by the Caesar Nicholas II two centuries ago became true, after the alliance which was made by Washington between Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and Baghdad half a century ago was the alliance that confronted the Russian movement during the days of the Soviet Union.
If it is true that the world changes from Syria as the Russian President Vladimir Putin said few years ago, then it is true too that Russia with Putin decided to play the leading role in changing the world from the Syrian gate, and now it is reaping the fruits of its sucess.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,