Putin brings the world to his plan in Syria

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Those who see the military Russian intervention in Syria by the attitudes of the West and its allies which are full of criticism and skeptic, and those who see the criterion of success or failure of this intervention by the degree of the Western welcoming and the announced convention are committing mistakes. Russia did that not to make a show, neither to prove presence nor to reserve a seat in the Syrian future or at the negotiating tables which will be held about the conflicts of the region, nor to protect its Syrian partner from possible dangers. Russia has waited a long time, it has studied patiently, set up all the considerations, and made within integrated plan a timetable and geographical maps that allow it to draw the future of the two tracks of the war on terrorism and the political solution in Syria, and through them the future of the strategic security in the Middle East, in a way they grant to the people of the region and their forces, including the opponents of the Russian role and their allies as well as to the world powers at their forefronts those who antagonize Russia and object its role and performance a single available guarantee to restore a balance and stability for a region where the spread of chaos is threatening the international security and peace.

The decision of the Russian President Vladimir Putin has an estimation stems from the stalling in  place which Washington and who stands with it have reached in the region, they adopt a political solution to Syria starts with the stepping down of the Syrian President, this will not happen as it is contrary to the rules of the international law so it is unrealistic, in addition they do not have a mechanism to impose it so this leads to the suspension of the political solution, they admit of the failure of their war against terrorism because it does not have an ally that is capable of moving on ground, thus their war becomes aimless , while Russia is adopting a political solution starts from a Syrian Syrian dialogue among the agreed powers with the Syrian government on the priority of the war against terrorism, towards a government of a national comprehensive partnership for all those who agree on this priority. Moscow adopts a concept of the war against terrorism in which participated a capable distinguished army in the ground war, it is the Syrian army, Moscow breaks the deadlock which the West imposes by its bankrupt means, but it imposes an equation of real movement by targeting the armed groups which the West classified them with the terrorism, but it aliened them from targeting because they are open allies of its allies and from under the table, and because they take the responsibility of delaying and disrupting the chances of victory of the Syrian army by exhausting its capabilities, thus the Russian field role becomes obligatory to the West and its allies on a unified classification of terrorism, and aliens the opposition which may be useful for the political solution, so the preparation for the war becomes available, because  it has both the aerial coverage and the ground force along with a political solution which its forces and tracks have been cleared.

The decision of the President Putin stems from an estimation of an attitude, that Washington and the capitals of the West are aware of the need of not let time pass without resolving the Syrian crisis because the two crises of the refugees and the expansion of the terrorism to Europe will become out of control unless responding quickly,  and that the negligence under the pretext of the inability to annoy or  to be frank with the regional allies of the West, who are driven by the hatred of Syria, and insist stubbornly on depending on the terrorist organizations to prolong the war against Syria will bring disasters to the whole world, therefore there must be an initiative by a major power that stops the standstill and dots the I’s and crosses the T’s which the West is taking it as a pretext to justify its inability to stop it in front of its allies, this force is Russia.

The decision of the President Putin stems from an estimation of an attitude that based on reading the chaos and the division as inevitable option, because the war on terrorism does not approach to a close victory, this decision and that chaos threaten the allies of Moscow and Iran in Syria and Iraq, but they threaten as well the West’s allies in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This result will be difficult to Russia but a tragic to the West, because this division and chaos means the emergence of loyal entities to Iran and Russia on the Mediterranean Sea and on the banks of the Gulf that are opposite to Iran and what it preserved of oil. All of these are strategic features which Washington as well the West will lose, while the protection of the unity of the region’s entities will make them all have the equation of winner to winner.

The decision of the President Putin stems from an estimation of an attitude, it’s basis is that the chaos which in its beginning may tempt the West will not continue and the matter will be under control, Iran which may be at the most winners side within an equation that all are losers as a result of division and fragmentation, it will be at the winners side within the equation of chaos that produces the equation of loser loser that will lead the region to destructive wars whether the opposite part of it and its allies is Saudi Arabia or Israel, but the West will be the biggest loser, because keeping stability and balances and preventing the radicalization of chaos which will drag the region into open wars later will be in coordination with Iran, because it wants it within its supporting option of the resistance, as an option in Palestine and not of the wars, and its support of the peaceful opposition in the Gulf countries and not the civil or the regional wars, but the West is in need of this Russian initiative which will ensure the stability and keeping of the balances, and which the West does not have. So Russia which the West is used to scream at it becomes its salvation.

The decision of the President Putin stems from his consideration of the energy’s equations in the world which the Turkish and the Qatari projects have failed in serving them by assumptive pipe lines that require the control on Syria, this has not achieved and will not be achieved. The West does not bear the instability in this market which its serving needs the keeping of the future wealth in the Mediterranean Coast, and ensuring a smooth flow of its resources which come from the Gulf and which Iran and Iraq possess its largest strategic stocks of oil and gas and their future lines will expand towards the West across Syria. The securing of all these organic interests for each parties of the energy’s equation of producers and consumers, needs a guarantor party of the size and the position of Russia which will benefit from the revenues of this role more than the other, but its allies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran will benefit as well, while regarding its opponents, Europe will be at the forefront of the beneficiaries, but the illusionists such as Turkey and Qatar will bear the loss and will lose gradually the reasons of their strength in preparation for the exit of the regional equations.

Russia supports its allies and it re-takes the lead of the initiative with them in the current wars, it accelerates the victory of Syria and the resistance alliance, but it will get rid of the worse in the West, so its plan will be under the implicit demand despite the public opposition, and it becomes a secure for the world from a comprehensive risk, and a vision of a rare strategic equation that achieves in an accurate meaning the concept of the international security and peace.