Putin to Obama…. the era of Afghanistan has passed “Checkmate”

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There was no debate about the balance which the Soviet Union has formed against the American policies in the world over the past half of a century, it separated between the date of dividing Berlin and the date of the fall of the separated wall despite the variation degree of Moocow’s usage of its power at the negotiating table, it resorted to Khrushchev’s boots to show its preparation of confrontation, and it was compelled to mobilize the elements of power to oblige Washington to review its considerations. Despite the diversity of the confrontation arenas along the world, this diversity was not Soviet-American, but most of it was a direct clash between Washington and the movements of the national liberation that struggle to regain the independence of their homes, while Moscow was supporting these movements but to the extent of not interfering directly in the field just in order to avoid the collision. Although the defeats of Washington were granting Moscow a chance of victory but the strategic fact in all of these confrontations is that Washington was still taking the initiative, and having the ability of the major maneuvers, on the contrary Moscow withstood and insisted on its refusal of the American interventions, moreover it did not hesitate to offer the support for the movements of people and their resistance of the American occupation as in Vietnam, Cambodia, Angola, and elsewhere, but at the same time, it remains  prudent  not to interfere, it means that the intervention of Moscow militarily to protect its ally was rare, while Washington was sufficient in providing the remote –support to its groups in order to avoid the direct intervention and what it may threaten of collision.

The crisis of the Bay of Pigs has occurred in the early of sixties, it was about to lead to an America-Soviet collision as a result of an American threat of invading Cube and a Soviet threat of putting nuclear missiles in it in return, this has actually produced a negative balance between the major poles in the world, but it ended by a settlement in which it guaranteed a protection of Cuba on one hand, and the return of the Soviet missiles on the other hand, this experience was the highest initiative done by Moscow.

Afghanistan has witnessed alone a unique state of a Soviet military intervention on the day of the creeping of the Red Army to provide the support to the rule of Babrak Karmal who was an ally to Moscow against a guerrilla war waged by the groups of the armed opposition which were supported by Washington. At the end of the war, with the withdrawal of the troops of the Soviet Union and the collapse of Karmal’s rule the war has revealed two facts; Washington’s dependence on a pivotal force which will become a dangerous global player since that date, where Al-Qaeda organization constituted it solid nucleus on one hand, and how Washington has responded to its numerous and repeated defeats in front of the liberation movements and the resistance with a similar crucial defeat of the Soviet Union with the same kind and with the same way, ending the legend of the Soviet power, and the start of the era of the possession of the international decision and paving the way for the emergence of terrorism which will form the dilemma of the world at its forefront the capitals of the west especially Washington which remained betting on the equation of the dual containment by using the terrorism of Al-Qaeda where it needs an  opponent that fights opponents by proxy, and fighting Al-Qaeda when it approaches the American bedroom, which means the red lines of the American interests.

After three decades of the Afghanistan war. Moscow was able to understand the lessons of history and geography, while Washington was free because of its anarchic interventions in everything at the time of the appropriation in drawing the world maps, so it has freed of all the controls, it repeated in Afghanistan and Iraq its failed experiences in Vietnam and Cambodia, it was exhausted of the losing interventions while it was at its aging time, while Russia was young it emerged from the womb of the aging Soviet Union, it rearranged its papers and forming its strategies, it has learnt the valuable lessons, it left Washington depleted of its choices and its strengths, it sank in the swamp of its crises, moving from one losing war into more losing one, while Moscow was waiting the appropriate time and place to have a strategic shift resembles in the world of chess the ambushes of the professional players with the shift “Checkmate”.

It was clear that the war of Syria which offers Washington a chance to compensate all the loses of its wars, it offers Moscow the chance of making the decisive victory by a soft knockout without involving as in Afghanistan, the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is surrounded by its people, army, and allies that are difficult to defeat, and the terrorism which is represented by Al-Qaeda Organization is no longer according to the world “the  mujahedeen of freedom industry”  as it was in the war of Afghanistan, when Washington supported publicly the terrorism to overthrow the Soviet role at that time, now it justifies its intervention and its interference in Syria by the war against terrorism.

Russia has a intrepid historic leader who masters the art of steadfastness, he has bear the attrition war which was waged against him in Ukraine, the prices war has exhausted the economies of his country and government, but in the first war, Crimea has been kidnapped from his hands from the first moment, but he stayed maneuvering, in the second war, he has become stronger so he sharpened the knives, he is a commander that perfects the shifts of chess as he masters the internship of his prey, he masters dealing with opponents without shedding their blood, challenges his opponents in the games of dual epee. Thus this Russian leader has bear the rudeness and the asperity of the American President who was enough to approach the theatre of his processes to enter within direct war, this is how the President Vladimir Putin has bear the era of the President George W. Bush without a reaction that recalls the confrontation. So Washington has been offered a president who perfected the art of retreat to prevent the comprehensive defeat, therefore the first maneuver of Putin was when the American fleets came to the Mediterranean Sea to wage a war in Syria, Putin has announced the dropping of the first two American missiles, he put his military arsenal to support Syria in confronting the danger of war. Thus the American response was the political solution of the chemical weapons; the fleets have left as they came, while the second maneuver of Putin is by checking the ability of Washington to come to the direct engagement line, when Crimea issue was resolved to Russia, so he was certain of his considerations of the accurate equations. The announcement of Washington of the return of the negotiations with Iran towards signing the nuclear understanding with it is to prove the readiness of the theatre for a qualitative Russian shift, that imposes American involvement in negotiations on a new schedule that is put by Putin, its title is “these are the terms of the war against terrorism, respecting the sovereignty of the countries and the international law”. In Syria, Washington has to choose between leaving the theatre of war or accepting this equation.

At an American dead-time of choosing between continuing the dual containment with Al-Qaeda organization or the involvement in terms that fix the shield of victory to the Syrian President whom Washington’s allies and its president have volunteered to put deadlines for his departure, Putin has resolved his qualitative and strategic shift in the field before his visit to New York to present the terms of negotiation, granting the American president the honor of the fair partnership in the war against terrorism, regaining the lead as a first player on the international theatre, and announcing the end of the American hegemony concerning the military and political decision in the world, from the most sensitive and dangerous areas “the Middle East” and in the most dangerous and sensitive war “ the war on terrorism”  saying after a long wait, the matter belongs to me,  inaugurating the time of the great victory which follows every great patience.