Saudi Arabia and the adventure of Istanbul

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Washington would rejoice if Saudi Arabia was able to issue a final statement of the Islamic summit in Istanbul that meets its aspirations by condemning what it called as Iran’s support of terrorism and naming Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, as it rejoices if Turkey succeeds through supporting the armed groups in the northern of Syria in forming a military balance against the Syrian army and its allies, as it exactly rejoices if Israel succeeds in imposing new engagement rules in the equations of deterrence with the resistance which is led by Hezbollah, but this differs from Washington’s reading.

Washington which is standing behind the Saudi Israeli understanding in its future economic dimension which presents to Israel an opportunity for bartering the retreat of the military influence with a pivotal economic role in the markets of transit and oil through playing a role of the Mediterranean gate between the Gulf and Europe  is  aware that this is related to the ability of the government of Benjamin Netanyahu of presenting the recipe of settlement for the Palestinian cause which the Saudi King can present it to the Arabs and Muslims as a title for acceptable historic solution for the Palestinian clause even in stages.

Washington is aware that the obtainment of Saudi Arabia of an Egyptian Turkish Pakistani support to confront Iran and setting a balance against it may not happen for many considerations most notably  is the complexity which is presented by the presence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Second, the magnitude of the Egyptian reactions at the level of elites and the street which confronted the issue of giving the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia. Third, the Egyptian, Turkish, and the Pakistani assessment of the meaning of the Saudi engagement in the settlement of Yemen and its implications of the size of the Saudi inability to continue the war. Fourth, the intergradations of the borders’ interests against the Kurds between Iran and Turkey and against the extremist organizations such as Baloch and Aloston between Iran and Pakistan. Fifth, the economic interests which link Iran with each one of Turkey and Pakistan in oil and trade markets especially the Iranian oil and gas pipelines across Pakistan toward China, in exchange of what Turkey is aspiring to play a role of mediator between Iran and Europe at the post-sanctions phase. These interests are not compensated by Saudi aids to the treasure of each one of the two countries.

Washington does not miss observing the size of offers which each one of Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan gets from different resources for the revenues of the unique positioning on the path of settlements, and the turning positioning of its allies as long as the end of this path will be at Saudi Arabia which will  leads them all, Egypt is receiving Russian proposals, Turkey is receiving Iranian proposals, and Pakistan is receiving Chinese proposals, all of that is drawing questions- marks about the extent of achieving the Saudi hopes from Istanbul summit, despite the personal effort of the King Salman and what might happen at the level of boycotting the Summit by the Egyptian President under political and popular pressures which constitute an indicator of the difference between the expectations and the promises on one hand and the facts on the other hand.

Washington is positioning at the level of what it accomplished in the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program and what it included of an admission of the status of Iran as a first regional country, it observes and encourages the Saudi positioning in the Yemen settlement, it observes, encourages and manages the Saudi Israeli rapprochement, in addition to the preparation for an insurance economic policy to Israel that is paid from the Saudi and the Egyptian accounts, but it does not take an adventure in putting its account in  a new struggle with Iran because it knows its consequences through the confrontations of the region which extended from Syria to Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon, where Al Qaeda organization is spreading in its various formations particularly  ISIS, and where Iran and the allies alone constitute the impregnable barrier against this progress, and where the Iranian response to the settlements alone grants the Americans an honorable exit from their failed wars, so Washington will not involve in practicing any sign or suggestion to keep up with the Saudi escalation towards Cairo, Ankara, and Pakistan repeating what it did on the day when Saudi Arabia announced its leadership for an Islamic alliance against the terrorism, it just blessed it but kept silence leaving the other capitals forming their considerations, so Egypt welcomed but it did not join militarily, Turkey said it will support remotely , Pakistan announced that it is outside that alliance, but when Saudi Arabia has broken up its diplomat relations with Iran, Washington took a similar position, while Turkey and Pakistan have emerged out to talk about a mediation.

Washington seeks for an alliance that includes all its allies in the Islamic Summit, this alliance  ensures its ability to form a balance power with Iran, but it wants that through the ability of negotiation and engagement into the settlements amid the complicated situations of each one of them with Iran on one hand, and the competition among them for being the negotiating partner with Iran on the other hand, and what this may require of the engagement of some of them in the game of encouraging each other for escalation in order to be involved more, and not out of  the seriousness of the going on into the escalated choices in the light of reading the track of the international and regional relationships of Iran and its growing position, because the competition is not based on leading a war that will not occur and its results are known, but the competition is based on the attempt to be at the end in the souvenir photos of the negotiating tables, and the escalation is just a quick recipe that ensures the transition into a negotiating paper but it does not necessarily make a negotiator.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,