Sources of power between Trump and Putin and their allies

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Russian President Vladimir Putin and his administration seem in a state of relaxation in dealing with any indicator of US escalation, or sanctions, or changing the rules of engagements, this relaxation reflects on Putin’s allies, as Iran which forms the title of a US campaign that its implications have not stopped, but Iran did not reacted, it did not consider the US threat serious or capable of imposing new rules for the existing balances. Syria which was affected in the field with what was called by the Americans and their allies as changing the rules of engagement through military US direct actions, and even its President has got escalated speech from the US President it seems reassured for what it does while it completes the progress of its forces in the field breaking what are supposed to be the US red lines, either regarding what is related to the military balance against the armed groups which their sites surrender in front of the Syrian army especially in Damascus, the countryside of Homs, Hama, and Aleppo, or regarding what is related to the seeking to reach the borders with Iraq and to meet the Popular Crowd across it, the Syrian army and the Popular Crowd have overcome the dangers of the ability to meet across the borders, moreover the recent words of Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah after the summits of Riyadh were to mock the talk about a change in the balances, asserting that the scream does not change the balance, and that the resistance axis is stronger than before.

We may not find an interpretation for this confidence by any of the four references in the confrontation axis with America; Russia, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah as what was presented by Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah in his recent speech, in which he presented three criteria for power: the will and the clarity in vision, the coherence of the relationship between the leadership and its followers and the vitality of their contribution in its battles. The cohesion of the front allies on common visions and solidarity in the face of challenges. By measuring these criteria it seems that the situation of Russia, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah is ideal, and at the best situations and indeed it is stronger than ever before, while it seems that America and its main allies in the region as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel are in their worst situations and weaker than ever.

America faces an unenviable internal situation, especially with the judicial reviews which reached to extracting confessions from his son- in-law and his closest advisor about his seeking to establish a secret intelligence channel with Moscow in the light of popular division, a retreat in prestige, the reluctance of the traditional institutions, and the absence of the partisan cover. While Erdogan faces crises from the interior to the relationship with Washington, Europe, and Saudi Arabia, and the loss between the positioning with Russia and Iran or to stay in an alliance which works against him and collapses in front of him. Saudi Arabia is facing an internal aggravated financial political situation either in deficit of budget and the decline of the oil incomes, or in the repercussions of the war of Yemen, or the conflict between the Crown Prince and the Crown Crown Prince on the throne, and the seeking to have the blessing of America or in the popular interior which moves towards sectarian war. While Israel faces its historic confusion between the two choices: the interest of the openness on a settlement through which it wins an ally financially, militarily, and politically that puts it in the face of Iran and inside the Gulf, but it provokes the Right wing and the religious extremists and between meeting what the Right wing wants as the escalation that will lead to wars which it knows its inability to bear its consequences.

The Russian President has got an unprecedented popularity, the Iranian President has emerged from the elections in which participated three-quarters of the voters, he got a high ratio of votes, while the Syrian President is reaping the fruits of his steadfastness and his vision of the war on his country with more cohesion of the popular block which supports him and the Syrian army, and which engages more in favor of his vision along with achieving more of the political and military victories, while Hezbollah has a firm control on his background, it succeeds in overcoming the obstacles which made in order to affect its relation with his ally the President of the Free Patriotic Movement, either in the file of the relationship with Saudi Arabia or in the file of the electoral law. It seemed that the quartet is united around the unified vision and around the content of the sticking to the common alliance and its protection, while the opposite alliance seems fragile, dismantled, and incapable of solving a small problem comparing with what is said about the alliance goals, as that resulting from the role of the Kurds in the war on ISIS, or that which ignited the Gulf between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as the recent consequences of the historic summits of the US President.

A little bit of checking for what is coming will show many things, we are in the first diagram of the dazzle, resulting from the first half of the year of the term of new president, he will show what he has then the dramatic collapse starts and reveals the most painful facts, either regarding the future of the US-Turkish relationship, or the future of the Saudi-Qatari relationship, or the future of the Syrian- Iraqi borders, or the future of the war on ISIS and its balances, the future of Jordan, and the turning of contradictions to the extent of explosion regarding the future of Libya. Let us wait and see.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,