Written by Nasser Kandil,
As the War of July 2006 symbolizes the open confrontation between the resistance as a project of liberation and the occupation entity as a project of aggression, every subsequent round of this confrontation can be described as the new aspect of the War of July. This can be applied also on the rounds of the Lebanese internal exhaustion of the resistance between the War of July 2006 and the Doha Settlement in 2008 which ended the presidential vacancy and the abnormal governmental situation, after the last quarter of the internal decision of the government of the Prime Minister Fouad Al Siniora about uprooting the communications network of the resistance, and which was ended on the seventh of May 2008, when the resistance was obliged for the first time to deal with the internal differences not from its additive value, rather from its surplus power in the field even for few hours.
In his pre-last speech the Secretary-General of Hezbollah Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah described the war launched on Syria for eight years as the Great War of July, after everything became very clear, and after it was clear the presence of the project of the alliance of the American-Israeli-Saudi War of July, that aims at achieving the same goals of the War of July but in new geography, trying to benefit from the lessons of the War of July, most importantly to be away from the direct confrontation, to tamper with the internal structure, to ignite the sectarian strife, to spread chaos, and to make use of the takfiri terrorism as a reserve army, so this enables administrating the war without the involvement of waging it directly, and provides the negotiating opportunities to impose the conditions of this axis on the forces of the resistance as an only way to stop this destructive war on Syria and the region countries.
The resistance axis succeeded in embracing the Great War of July in its internal Syrian dimension due to the strength and solidity of the Syrian state, the political, cultural, and historical dimensions of the collective conscience of the Syrian people in their different segments, and the solid ideological composition of the Syrian Arab Army and the impossibility of dismantling it, according to the red lines of sects and doctrines. Moreover the axis of the resistance succeeded due to the surplus power of Iran and Hezbollah to achieve the needed military balance against the surplus of power of the external intelligence military forces along with hundreds of thousands of the fighters of Al-Qaeda Organization and its branches, so the required deterrence balance for overthrowing Syria has been achieved. Later, the axis of the resistance succeeded due to the strategic decision taken by Russia and the Syrian state to purge Syria of the foreign presence and the terrorist groups through adopting the opposite attack to restore the unity and the sovereignty of Syria over its entire geography without giving any concessions at the expense of Syria’s constants and its geostrategic identity. Therefore the project of dividing Syria and the sharing of its parts as security belts for Israel and Turkey has fallen. The Great War of July has become in its last quarter after the failure of every negotiation for a settlement that achieves some of the goals of the war, as the last moments of negotiation which accompanied the last days of the War of July 2006.
It seemed that the events of the last year have been planned to meet this last quarter by the leadership of the war axis to undermine the additive value of the victory axis in Syria represented by Hezbollah. The US withdrawal from the nuclear understanding and the return to the severe sanctions on Iran became a project to weaken the sources of strength of Hezbollah, after the Americans conceded the impossibility of Iran’s siege of reducing the ceiling of its positions or to spread the chaos in it. Furthermore, the supportive American procedures to Israel regarding the fate of Jerusalem or the talking about the deal of the century seem without any goal except, igniting the hostile force of Israel in order to weaken Hezbollah for a decisive confrontation if its circumstances were provided, thus Yemen, Iraq, and Palestine become arenas for waiting till the Lebanese scene becomes clear, where the detention of the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri in Riyadh to tame him and to make him ready for the next round is just a round of the last quarter of war.
Between Idlib and the east of Euphrates, the military and the political hours of resolving are passing very quickly, where America is seeking to disrupt them in order to pave the way for the round which must preceded it, where Lebanon is its arena. Therefore, the obstruction of the birth of a government with unattainable demands will not be mere an exaggeration of internal sizes, rather a needed waiting for the resolution of the international tribunal which the preparation for it have become an entry for the criminalization of Hezbollah and the call to exclude it from the government. The plan would not be complete in Washington, Tel Aviv, and Riyadh without the cooperation of those in Lebanon. Therefore, the governmental process has become related to the concept of the national security of the axis of the resistance, while the international tribunal has become a direct tool of war. This is the meaning of the words of Al Sayyed Nasrallah “Do not play with fire” “This is not negotiable. Period” because this playing in the last quarter of the last round of the Great War of July is recalling what happened in 2008 in the last quarter of the small War of July and will ignite a regional fire as the seventh of May, where the tribunal and the government will fall as long as the wisdom has fallen before… This the meaning of the warning of Al Sayyed of playing with fire ‘to return to wisdom, before some Lebanese will turn into just fuel for an Israeli war which is not desired by the resistance but it does not fear it, because it is aware that it will change the face of the whole region in the twenty-first century if it occurs.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,