The Lebanese ambiguity and the non –politics The whole world is waiting for Turkey

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It is easy for the observer of the Lebanese political reality to remember the stations that gather the Lebanese forces which were about to collapse but suddenly hidden forces interfered to keep them alive, and it is easy to remember the reverse stations where there were settlements that were about to emerge but hidden forces have interfered and prevented their occurrence, so it is enough to  remind that the government through its two parties which are concerned in clash; Al-Mostaqbal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement has exposed to a threat of collapse and the preparation to go forward in it, but suddenly the Prime Minister has retreated of his decision of resignation as the Ministers of the Free Patriotic Movement who have retreated of their resignations, Conversely,  before many months everything was showing the arrival of a dialogue between the Blue and the Orange Movements to the understanding, its center is the presidential file, its parliamentary and governmental branches and the election law. Suddenly everything has suspended till the promised understanding disappeared, furthermore, before days the modest settlement which tried to postpone the demobilization of the Brigadier Shamel Roukos in order to provide a positive charge in the political and the institutional life, there was an effective intervention which has prevented that. All of these do not mean but one thing telling the Lebanese that the explosion of their country is forbidden and the launching of the settlements’ choice is forbidden too, the ambiguous Lebanon and the non–politics Lebanon is required.

The attrition, scoring points, and the progress till the red lines are available choices for the Lebanese and regional forces, but it seemed clear that scoring certain points in longer –term settlements has not come too soon, and the escalation to enter into a confrontation that pushes the country to the unknown is not yet possible. Lebanon is summarizing number of characteristics that permit for whom check them to seize the elements which make the referential  titles in the Lebanese consideration, in Lebanon the two parties that possess the sources of power for movement are meeting mainly the resistance led by Hezbollah in one side and on the other side Al-Mostaqbal Movement which possesses with its allies through their impact on the Deputy Walid Jumblatt by the Saudi pressure the opportunity of forming a parliamentary majority, and the ability to disable the forming of an electoral quorum for completing the maturity of the presidency if Jumblatt has decided to stand with Hezbollah and its allies. Conversely Al-Mostaqbal Movement represents the only ally of Saudi Arabia which is not made by the direct Saudi presence, after it was clear that the influence of Saudi Arabia in Yemen is zero before the Saudi intervention, this is through the evidence of exiling all the Saudi groups outside Yemen in a recoded time that is no more than a month before their return back on Saudi battleships. In Iraq an composite government has been constituted without a favor of Saudi Arabia, and all the attempts of disrupting have failed to say that without Saudi Arabia it is impossible to form a government,  this is what Saudi Arabia has tried repeatedly to say in Lebanon. When its opponents have opposed it and a government of the Prime Minister Najib Mikati has been formed, those have regretted for what they have done. In Syria Saudi Arabia does not have but only what can be borrowed by the influence of others where Al-Qaeda organization is fighting, so each one of Saudi Arabia and its regional allies such as Turkey and Israel is borrowing a branch of Al-Qaeda. Therefore, it becomes resolved that the political and the military formations of the opposition which Saudi Arabia and its allies are sharing the influence on them, are mere television interfaces that have neither voting power if it is resorted to the ballot boxes, nor a fighting capability if the guns and the domination areas have been calculated. Only from Lebanon, Saudi Arabia can send messages.

If Saudi Arabia wants according to its considerations and its logic to send messages to Iran which it considered the enemy number one, then Lebanon is the arena, and if it wants to fight Hezbollah which it considered the cause of its loses in all the arenas as showed by all those whom it pays the cost of their articles then Lebanon is the arena, and if it wants to translate its alliance with Israel practically then Lebanon is combing new allies through the history of their ancient alliance with Israel, Israel puts Lebanon under microscope, where according to its experts and leaders, there is a power which constitutes the source of strategic danger against it, If Saudi Arabia wants to raise its price at the American decision-maker then the only place which has the ability to facilitate and disrupt the solutions is Lebanon, and when it wants to present a real contribution in the escalation in Syria so nothing can be provided but by its different allies in Lebanon, if it wants to go on in its alliance with Al-Qaeda till the end to turn the table against the Russian role as the way of Afghanistan before thirty five years then there is no Pakistan where it can play the role despite the partnership with Turkey, if the Justice and Development Party remains ruling then its participation will not exceed the soft war, thus the Northern of Lebanon will be a substitute of Waziristan in Pakistan which has formed the background of AL-Qaeda organization  to wage the war in Afghanistan,

The question is what is awaiting Saudi Arabia to decide where it spends its influence in Lebanon the settlement or the confrontation, and what is the element which it wants to be certain of its development in order to decide?

The Russian positioning and the Western dealing with it show two facts, first ,the flow of the victories of the Russia Syrian Iraqi and Iranian coordination does not leave too much time, the Yemeni stalemate and the international pressures to produce a settlement has no much time as well, so the first fact it that the time is imminent,  the second fact is that there is no  American decision or a western one to have a clash with Russia but the negligence and the pursuit to improve the conditions of the negotiation. There were opportunities and tests but the most important of them is the confirmation of a resolution of taking back the Patriot missiles from Turkey at the end of the current month and the starting of implementation, which means there is no intention for a military obstruction of the Russian positioning, and there is no intention for military repositioning with the military forces despite the Turkish scream out of threat and danger.

Nothing can explain the Saudi postponing which causes the freezing of the mysterious Lebanon to prevent the fall and at the same time to prevent going on into settlements, but only the Russian acceleration in the military positioning, and this is explains the American Russian moving to have relationship with the Kurds, it means here surely the approach of the departure of the Justice and Development Party in two weeks where the parliamentary elections will be held and that the observers are agreeing after the failure of the Turkish President in forming a buffer zone and his failure in hitting the Kurds on that the party will be charged of the defeat and the failure in gaining a majority that allows it to reconstitute the Turkish government and to draw its foreign policies. While the whole world is behaving on a basis of how the situation will be in Turkey with a consensual government where there is no majority for the party of the Turkish President and a crucial role in drawing its policies, the Saudis have decided to gamble by going reversely by granting the Turkish President and his party with the support of the intelligence Israel an opportunity of new victory, through the Saudi money with Israeli planning, to grant the Turkish Saudi Israeli triangle the opportunity of managing a long attrition war in the region, after the Russian positioning has resolved the attitude of Egypt in favor of this positioning according to Egyptian vision that considers the danger against its security is from one main source represented by Turkey, and after Saudi Arabia has resolved that the only ally which has to have an understanding with is Turkey in particular, even if the cost is the loss of Egypt, the deal has been accomplished.

Waiting for the Turkish elections, the world is waiting and the region is waiting, the local changes will impose their rhythm but in both cases they will not change in the major balances because Turkey through its president was aiming but it will return to what was before, after it was at the peak of its strength and it did not change. Lebanon is at the top of the waiting list between the détentes or the explosion.