Washington between the settlements and the dual engagement -1-

Two decades ago, the Americans have innovated a military political strategy, they called it the dual containment, it based on the cooperation with a team in one field and fighting it in another field, to cooperate with it in one geography and fighting it in another geography, they have applied this strategy on their relationships with the opponents that fight other opponents, they have used this as well with Al-Qaeda Organization, they have fought it and used it to fight the Soviets, moreover they applied this with the former Iraqi rule and the President Saddam Hussein after they fought him, but at the same time they encouraged and supported his war against Iran. The dual containment strategy has become one of the most prominent approved strategies in the world where the pure allies and the worst enemies constitute less than a half, while the rest is distributed among adverse friends and friendly opponents.

With reference to the developments of the region, especially what is going on in the Syrian arena, the question arises here about the way through which the American administration will behave after the end of the two months of the transitional phase, and what it will witness of preparations for opposed platforms in shaping the coming developments between the open escalation and paving the way for settlements. If the American administration will be in a strategic transitional loss then it is something understandable and has clear indicators. It devoted itself since the signing of the nuclear understanding with Iran to ensure the winning of implementation for the interest of the President Barack Obama whatever was the resolution of the majority of Congress, then to practice this right,  this stage will last till the mid of October, then it will be followed by the stage of revealing the position and the attitude of Turkey in the coming stage after the early parliamentary elections, and the development of its political and governmental consequences till the second half of the next November. During these two months, the capacities, features, and the chances of the success of the opposed platforms in the region will be developed. A platform which Russia and Iran try to set it through their importance, and another platform for which Saudi Arabia, Israel are preparing themselves, in addition to the Muslim Brotherhood in Qatar, Turkey and Al-Qaeda Organization,  thus the outcome of the competing platforms is for having the attention of Europe  and its government towards them.

It is clear that Russia is doing its best to enhance advocated military messages and political and media perseverance to prevent any thought of the escalation against Syria, this is the significance of the sign through which the President Vladimir Putin has linked  the shipments of the weapons to Syria with the agreements of 2010 which everyone knows that at their forefronts the air defense missiles  SS-300, then the announcement of the advanced air defense missiles SA-22, suggesting that these deterrent messages are addressing the countries that have an air force, such as Israel, and Saudi Arabia which still has high degree of hostility against Syria during a talk about a Saudi Israeli alliance where the features of its future plans will be clear, in addition to the maneuver of the missiles which Cyprus has announced that it had been notified its details from the Russian troops which are stationed in Syria. It is a message of power that does not address the groups of Al-Qaeda organization in so far as, it is directed to the countries that are equipped with missiles and heavy artillery, accompanying this a Russian media bombardment, its title is no for a political solution without the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, and no war against terrorism if the Syrians country through its institutions is not a basis for it and a pivot of the surrounding alliances.

Iran puts all its political and diplomatic capacities to open gaps into the track of escalation and to facilitate the engagement of more countries in the region and the world in endeavors to reach a Syrian political solution, which will form a launching base for the retreat of the near and the far countries which have implicated in positions and in hostile procedures against Syria, after the Syrian bleeding wound has become a reason for crises that their damages are surpassing the borders of Syria by the confession of the whole world. On the other hand, Iran puts its human resources, economical, and military importance to send a message for the concerned that the fall of Syria and its overthrow are prohibitions and Iranian national security lines. Despite of all of that Iran behaves after the nuclear understanding as a superpower that bears its responsibilities in building the regional stability and confirming its openness to all active parties in the region except Israel, it does not hesitate to grant Turkey and Saudi Arabia the appropriate opportunities to go down of the tree of escalation and war and its high demands.

While Turkey went to its elections which their consequences seem clear in advance,  with the inability of the party of the Muslim Brotherhood to draw the Turkish foreign politics especially the continuation of the policy of the war against Syria, each one of Saudi Arabia and Israel prepares itself to meet the Syrian merit with more concern and willingness of confrontation of another kind, instead of being accustomed to the variations which the understanding about the Iranian nuclear file has opened their phase. The swaying Saudi Arabia between the attempt of controlling over Yemen if it can  and the entry in a settlement that does not exceed its being as a long- term truce,  it puts its priorities to continue the war against Iran through Syria, and talks about a devotion to what it called as the Decisive Storm which targets it, it crowds the militants groups from all over the world for this purpose, so it considers the exit of the Yemeni merit entirely through a controlling plan or partially through an exit of a settlement or a truce an opportunity to concentrate over Syria, moreover it considers the Russian and the Iranian messages  an anticipation for this devotion.

In tomorrow’s episode what about Israel and Europe and how will America act?

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,