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China and Iran: The Century’s Most Important Geo-Strategic Transformation

by Nasser Kandil

The Sino-Iranian “understanding” has become the predominant preoccupation for the strategic planning elites in the United States represented by its deep state, open think tanks, and numerous study centers, and has overturned  balances formerly relied on in their thinking and  planning. This “understanding” will guarantee the flow of Iranian oil to China at a lower cost and in quantities exceeding oil production in the years preceding the embargo, in exchange for an Iranian resurgence financed by China and executed by Chinese and Iranian companies.

 

Such resurgence will be encompassing and will include development in a large number of areas. It will involve the development in the manufacturing of means of public, clean energy, and commercial transportation: civilian planes, trains, railways, electric cars, commercial vessels and oil tankers; the development of quarries and mines and the manufacture of basic industrial materials: steel, iron, and marble; the building of hospital networks and a modern pharmaceutical industry; the improvement and upgrading of scientific centers for research; the building of electronic factories for the production of computers and smart phones; the building of a new network of giant airports and ports; and large housing projects for new cities. Militarily, it will pave the way for an understanding about the development of Iran’s encryption capabilities and its building up of new encryption systems, building up of bases for building solid fuel and missile manufacturing, and building-up of air-defense systems and satellites.

 

The Americans estimate that the value of this “understanding” in today’s world price market is 4 trillion U. S. dollars, in spite of its announced value of 500 billion dollars by the China and Iran.  They believe that the proclamation of this understanding is, on one hand, the announcement of the death of the American policy of economic sanctions targeting Iran and China, and on the other, the presence of China and its readiness to progress towards the Mediterranean, the Gulf, and the Sea of Oman, through building an advanced political, economic, and services base in Iran.

 

The Americans anticipate a 500% growth in the purchasing power of the Iranian currency, and a 300% growth in individual income in Iran within the first 5 years of this “understanding.” They believe that Iran will have an economy similar in status to that of Germany and Japan in the 1960’s. They also believe that it will become the first and uncontested military power in the Middle East based on the significant military power it currently possesses, and which (in view of the “understanding”) is expected to dramatically increase.

 

Some American experts have compared the “understanding” with the agreement between Egypt in the time of President Jamal Abdel Nasser with the former Soviet Union, and believe that the Sino-Iranian “understanding” carries tenfold the danger which the Cairo-Moscow agreement had carried in its golden days. There appears to be a consensus that the “understanding” will lead to the rise of a world giant, namely China, and a regional giant, namely Iran, with only two ways of damage mitigation to the American presence and interests.  The first is a quick diffusion of tensions in the Middle East through a speedy resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict, in which the United States magically appears as the friend of the Arabs and isolates them from Iran. The second is an American-Russian strategic understanding which includes joint solutions for the crises in the area, and comprehensive joint cooperation in economic, political, and strategic spheres.

 

They point to the petrification in the American strategic and political mind, which has the surface appearance of being pragmatic and not dogmatic, as a definitive obstacle preventing from any step towards mitigation of the serious damage anticipated to result from this “understanding”. Evidence of structural defects in U.S. strategic planning and accompanying political paralysis eliminate any expectation that mitigating steps could be taken.

 

Experts describe the “understanding” as the most prominent geo-strategic transformation of the century and the beginning of a new international era. They believe that dealing effectively with its consequences is beyond the ability of any U.S. Administration as long as its considerations begin with the protection of the interests of cartels and the military-industrial complex, irrespective of the resulting constant tension with Russia, and the protection of the interest of lobbies supporting Israel, with disregard to the resulting hatred for Americans in Arab and Islamic milieus.

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