Written by Nasser Kandil,
There are three issues that have developed quickly on the rhythm of the expectations that they do not need too much time till their results be developed, what will be developed is neither accidental, nor temporal, nor circumstantial, but articulated , The first issue is the Turkish Russian issue and its escalation towards a deadlock concerning the attempts of the circumstantial settlement, but with a term until the end of the year, this deadline is determined by the Russian President Vladimir Putin to start the implementation of the economic sanctions which can be escalated if the tension continues, while it is supposed that by the end of the year the Syrian field will have the opportunity to say the final word regarding the Turkish perspective which it wants to impose on Syria, Second, the end of the year is the deadline which Ismail the son of the Sheikh Ahmed the UN Deputy has announced for a settlement in Yemen to resume the negotiations, this deadline which will be more important by the field developments comparing with the previous deadlines of the negotiations. The third issue is the Lebanese engagement between the presidency and the law of the parliamentary elections, where the charged committee for preparing the law has only one month for the end of the year to complete the draft, while the current formula for the settlement of the presidential issue by nominating the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh does not bear a term to be developed more than the end of the year, it means with the end of the month assigned for the committee of the electoral law.
The end of the year means the last month, it is the month where the merits of completing the lifting of the sanctions of Iran are competed according to the rules which the understanding have formulated on its nuclear program, thus accordingly Iran will have a lot of money from its frozen deposits and from the revenue of its returning oil powerfully to the market according to the quota that is assigned for it in the OPIC organization and which equals four time of its current production, in other words, it will have detents in the international banking relations and in opening commercial letters of credit to pump the foreign imports in its market. During the end of the current year the program of reducing the number of the American troops in Afghanistan will start towards full withdrawal by the end of the next year, this calls for the withdrawal of five hundred American soldiers and officers each month to complete the withdrawal of the remaining force of nearly three thousand soldiers at the end of the year, but the year of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan starts with the end of this year, furthermore the end of this year will be the term of implementing the last commitments that are related to the understanding about the Ukrainian crisis, whether according to the Russian-Ukrainian crossings, or according to the privacy of the Eastern provinces that support Russia. It is also supposed that by the end of this year, the agreed term between the Americans and the Iraqi army will end happily to terminate the presence of ISIS in Al-Anbar province, while the Russian leaders have confirmed that the most important part of the expected accomplishment of the role of the Russian aviation in the Syrian war will be shown at the end of the year, it means after three months of the starting the positioning and the intensive raids on the sites of the armed groups and the proceeding of the units of the Syrian army under their coverage.
The merits of the end of the year are many and intergraded, their coverage includes all the issues of the clashes in the world towards an engagement that replaces the clashes, therefore the understandings that are related to Syria in Vienna, and those which are related to Ukraine in Minsk and those which are related to Yemen in Muscat constitute the indicators of their paths on the rhythm of the understandings of the Iranian nuclear program which will makes the American electoral year, a year of devotion and retraction to the inside, this means a hot month on all the fronts from the Turkish-Syrian borders to the Yemeni-Saudi borders.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,