An understanding on Yemen

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The military standstill in the war which Saudi Arabia waged against Yemen a year ago has become of the constants in describing the Yemeni situation in the Western press, as in the decision-making centers in the capitals of the West. So if no one of them calls to immediate ceasing of the Saudi massacres taking into consideration the critical situation which Saudi Arabia experiences  in all its losing wars in the region on one hand, and the critical situation of the West regarding its successive losses in the region and its inability to exist defeated without allies, in addition to its need to help those allies as possible to maintain  a position and a role, to be present through the limits of power which they have and which it helps them to keep on the other hand, then this Western silence does not mean that the West did not feel that the war in Yemen has reached the stage in which Saudi Arabia and the West have entered the threat of the blocked tunnel, the open corrosion, and the dangerous threat of the high interests of them because of the inability to reach a settlement that ends the war with face saving and form a base for confronting the challenges.

There must be a settlement to end the war in Yemen, this becomes the slogan of the whole West, this settlement must be formed through the Saudi cooperation with Iran on the basis of the admission of the inevitability of the involvement Al Houthis movement in the rule within a formula that paves the way for elections, and within a system that prevents the expansion which Al-Qaeda and ISIS achieve in all the areas which Saudi Arabia says that they are under the grip of the alliance which it led accompanied with its Yemeni allies. For this settlement the UN Envoy overworks under Western support, as well as the Sultanate of Oman overworks with Western encouragement and American one in particular on the direct talks between Al-Houthis and Saudi Arabia or between the Iranians and Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis have reached the maturity to accept the settlement, despite that they are not matured yet for its conditions as the information says. They recognized that the termination of Al-Houthis is impossible, and the prevention of Al-Qaeda from filling the lines of their deployment is beyond their ability, because Al-Qaeda and ISIS are the backbone of what the Saudis call the Yemeni resistance, but the Saudis aspire for a settlement that alienates the former President Ali Abdullah Saleh hoping to achieve a moral victory, on one hand, and beholds Saleh the consequences of the war, and having control on the cans which owe him the allegiance by driving him away of the equation on the other hand, but the most important is the hope to have control over  the army which Saleh is still has an active influence among its ranks. The Saudis negotiate with Al-Houthis on a settlement that alienates Saleh out of it, in return they search for a formula that allows them to announce the victory within the process of the settlement, so they set for the settlement a framework which is the future of Sanaa, which now they are admitting of the inability to having control over it militarily, so they suggest an understanding with a unit of the Yemeni army, which is trusted by Al-Houthis  to give it Sanaa, while the Saudis in return and under international guarantees will cease their raids toward it and announce its neutrality in preparation for the political solution, which will be into effect in Geneva as they say, and if Al-Houthis  accept these two conditions the Saudis will bear the responsibilities of the international fund to reconstruct Yemen with one hundred billion dollars.

It does not matter whether this formula or any other formula of settlements will emerge, but the most important is that Saudi Arabia reaches this phase of the search for exits that indicates that exit of UAE of the war was not mere out of tiredness, but an international sign of high importance that was read by the Saudis, now it is the time and there is no much margins for maneuver.

Every settlement that is based on a government of a national unity that is followed by elections in Yemen as in Syria will mean a victory for the resistance axis, because in the two countries there is a confrontation between the resistance axis and the terrorist organizations, so neither Saudi Arabia will have an independent seat in it, nor the West does will have options and margins to choose between when it is the time for the war on terrorism.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

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