France and the Lebanese opportunity towards Syria and Iran Leading the war on terrorism in Lebanon
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The wounded France seems after the massacre, and the continuation of terrorism in terrifying it through strenuous chases and the false notifications that it needs to prove its position as a superpower through an accomplishment that cannot be achieved but only at the war’s field in the war on terrorism, it seems that the internal accomplishment and its standard of the final getting rid of the formations and the terrorists cells is an exhausting, and long-term work, that its results are dubious unless there was an effective success in hitting the back bases on which the workers in the terrorist organizations depend towards Europe, after their center has become in the Mediterranean coast specially Syria, even the French security officials do not hide that they need of a long-term complicated cultural social and political work after the winning in the war in Syria and Iraq militarily, in order to ensure that the organized structures of the extremism cells which are rooted among the ranks of the Islamic and Arab origins immigrations do not transform into armed civil confrontations that target the national unity of France and its national security with unrecoverable wounds.
As long as the arena of the useful possible and required accomplishment is in war fields, and as long as the arena of prevention and the following up is in France, then the challenge which faces the French government is how not to be a mere minor player in this war, and what can it do to be one of the victory –makers, thus it grants its citizens in addition to security the sense of the greatness of their country and with the revenge of those who have targeted their security and blood?.
The observes in Moscow say that the French President has notified the Russian President about his desire of a positioning that provides effectiveness in the war in Syria, but without complications that require a long time for paving the way for the cooperation with the Syrian country from impassable gate which is the gate of the political solution in Syria, and whenever the Russian American alliance becomes a true alliance, it grants France better opportunities for a big and more effective role, this helps as well in improving the Saudi Turkish performance towards the requirements of the war, but it is clear that this track requires a French acceptance of a modest positioning for at least a year, in order to have a special flavor in its partnership under an international and regional background and which is related to the bloody French wound, and through a French search for a distinguished excellent role.
Lebanon is granting the opportunity to France, because in Lebanon the war on terrorism is related to the war in Syria as long as the challenge of terrorism is continuous, after it has recently targeted the Southern suburb of Beirut, and the daily alert of the Lebanese security services as the French security services for chasing, prosecuting and tracking. It is known that without a major political decision that invests the frozen capacities of the Lebanese army for and attacking role to eradicate the center of terrorism on the Eastern borders without the armies of the other region, Lebanon will not be at rest. It is known as well that the political and regional veto has prevented a Lebanese Syrian cooperation that gives this task the opportunity to be achieved.
In Lebanon, the closer power to the Syrian country and Iran and the partner in the war on terrorism is represented by Hezbollah, which tries for a long time for a governmental decision that leads for a partnership with the Lebanese army to eradicate the center which is represented by the barren of Arsal, and the magnitude of the penetration in the Lebanese town itself. Accompanied with Hezbollah the Free Patriotic Movement the closer alliance to Hezbollah which is led by the General Michael Aoun who argues with France because of its attitude towards the Lebanese presidential elections which France is seeking for a role in, but in way that is accepted by Saudi Arabia and annoys Aoun, but the Free Patriotic Movement has the control on the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs which will be keen and comfortable for a French position that meets the Russian position in the cooperation in the war on terrorism in Lebanon. But this beholds France the responsibility of resolving the complications of its Lebanese allies through the powerful saying to Saudi Arabia that as we have supported you in Yemen, we are waiting for your support in Lebanon.
By leading the war on terrorism in Lebanon, France is hitting many birds with one stone; it approaches to Syria and Iran without losing its relationship with Saudi Arabia, but at the same time to make use of this relation to achieve a Lebanese consensus on this war which relieves Lebanon. Through this leading as well France will be granted later the opportunity of progress from this consensus to another consensus that approaches the internal settlements, as it is an acceptable partner by the two opposed international regional alliances in the region through distinguished relations with Russia and America on one hand and with Iran and Saudi Arabia on the hand.
Despite its participation in the war in Syria Washington seems that it is a minor part in it, because Russia has the initiative and it the only one which has an ally that leads the ground war, thus Washington is compensating its rank through its role in Iraq which it forms its main war because it has an ally that leads the ground war there; it is the Iraqi army and the Peshmerga. Conversely Moscow which has a relationship with Iraq through the quartet operational room finds that its role in Iraq is minor, because Washington has the initiative out of its distinguished relationship with the forces which lead the ground war, thus Russia compensates this by playing a leading role in the war in Syria because of this ground force and its relation with the Syrian army, while France finds that its minor participation in Syria and Iraq will remain minor, because the leadership in Syria will remain for Russia, and for America in Iraq, so it has to find a parallel front though which it has a distinguished relation with a ground ally that leads the war in order to keep a position for itself among the superpowers, so there is no choice but Lebanon since it has distinguished relationships with its local, regional, and international allies. France is an ally for the forces of 14th of March but it will achieve the slogan of the forces of 8th of March, it is feature that cannot be applied on others because Russia which adopts the slogan of war does not relieve the team of the 14th of March which sees its success a balance for its allies, moreover America does not raise but doubt to the team of the 8th f March, while France has its suitable role, it has a historical relationship with the Lebanese army. Maybe the war is the opportunity to make the lost Saudi gift in Paris a weapon for this army by the force of the logic of war.
Through this historical decision, the visit of any French President for congratulations after the termination of the presence of ISIS and Al Nusr in the Eastern chain will have a meaning, and will find whom will welcome him and whom accepts his role in the presidential elections, and maybe he will have an importance in Damascus and Tehran through the gate of Moscow, in addition to his effective role in the war, thus he can present initiatives to normalize the relations and the leading of the settlements.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,