Hezbollah versus Al Nusra

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It is no longer embarrassing for Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or Al-Qaeda to appear as allies in one war, because the assassination of the martyr the leader of the resistance Mustafa Badr Al-Din does not occur only as an open revenge between the resistance and Israel which knows the precise consideration of  the risks of a confrontation that is controlled by the deterrence balances, as it knows well the consequences of resorting to their judgment till the end , everything says that the various formations of Al-Qaeda are the first beneficiary of the process, by directing a blow to the leadership of the pivotal force in the confrontation which it  wages in Syria and which prepares for a divisive round in the northern of Syria.

If it was neither Israel nor America which committed the assassination, then Jerusalem Post would not report a scoop of promoting an event that an Israeli aircraft has launched a missile at the headquarters of Hezbollah near Damascus Airport, and has assassinated the martyr the leader Badr Al Din, but on the contrary Israel would negate any relation with the process although he is at the list of its goals, but it did not assassinate him, there were similar precedents where Israel did the same, unlike America which denies the presence of one of its aircraft at the time of the process over the area where the assassination of the martyr Badr Al Din was, which means that according to the facts of politics there is no justification for waiting the investigation field results only to know the limits of the America role and the Israeli role as well as the role of each of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Al-Qaeda.

America and Israel committed this process in order to say many things, first, there is a settled agreement among the parties of the war alliance not to permit ending the war of Syria according to formula that allows the getting out of Hezbollah triumphantly where Israel will be under threat, and if it must be a war then let everyone be involved in it, because the future of the region is interdependent and entangled, and the defeat of Turkey and Saudi Arabia will be in their unified army which is represented by Al –Qaeda organization, and what it meant a victory to Syria and to the resistance axis; it means a threat to the American interests especially the security of Israel, therefore the inability to wage a winning war against the resistance axis must not lead to the admission of the full defeat, but waging a war through determining  the limit of the settlement where there is no winner from the perspective of the crucial choices for the future of the region, a settlement for Syria through which it is no longer possible to be a base for the resistance nor a supportive to Palestine, a settlement where there are active political social and security interests for each of Saudi Arabia and Turkey that protect the American interests and reserve the security of Israel.

America and Israel as well Saudi Arabia and Turkey know that this settlement is not mature yet and its acceptance by all the parties of the resistance axis is impossible, thus there must be a crucial war in order to draw the balances of the impossibility of victory as well proposing a barer of the division of Syria through a settlement that bombs Syria and prevents its return to be a castle for the resistance axis. This is the function of the north war even if it turns into a project of a major regional war that ends with a big regional settlement where Israel is a partner in it and has all the necessary guarantees for its security and the future of its presence, or an attrition related war that violates the force which Hezbollah represents in the resistance axis to the extent of alienating it from the equation, and making it a lame partner in this axis, in addition to abolish  its presence as an additive value that grants the celebration  of triumph a strategic glamour which indicates to the future of the region, therefore these three ways of wars meet at Hezbollah but they intersect by weakening, besieging, and exhaust it, killing its leaders and prosecuting it by sanctions and the media campaign towards its classifying as terrorism and treating it on that basis, this is what the process of assassination showed as well as how the allies share the roles and the responsibilities.

The assassination is an American Israeli announcement, that the open war with Hezbollah will not be waged after ensuring the closure of the Syrian wound, as it is a Turkish Saudi announcement for Al-Qaeda to fight till winning the north of Syria and bargaining it in exchange of a settlement that ensures shares that are distributed on everyone and revenues that are shared by all at their forefront Israel. America will undertake sponsoring temporary settlements whenever there will be a sign of the wining of the resistance axis towards resolving the control in the northern of Syria and proposing the settlement which suits the war alliance. Within this settlement there is a new position for Hezbollah, a humiliating exit from Syria, a commitment to the Israeli security, and an acceptance of a modest role in the Lebanese interior. The assassination associated with a malicious Lebanese campaign that reveals the goals and with the taking over the resolution 1559 by Jeffry Feltman in preparation for opening the issue of the resistance’s weapons once again. The war is on all the fronts and their title is Hezbollah versus Al Nusra, so this is the interpretation of the decision of the Israeli occupation of announcing the rejoining of Golan again, either by demonstrating Al Nusra on Golan’s borders or alienating Hezbollah as a danger on these borders or a settlement that ensures the strategic security of Israel, where it will be a part of its composition, this is the decisive shot of the war which will start and which is meant to draw the path of achieving these goals.

The resistance will say its reading and will determine its approach in dealing with the assassination as an episode of the war episodes, thus the response will be and the war of the north of Syria will be as it was originally the war of the martyr Mustafa Badr Al-Din.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,