Kerry’s most important visit to Moscow

Written by Nasser Kandil,

This visit seems to be the most important, since the first visit of John Kerry to Moscow was in 2002 when it ended the first hundred days of the second mandate of Barack Obama after the successive sending of the war team to Syria, which was headed at that time by the US Secretary of States Hillary Clinton and has included the Defense Minister, the Head of the Central Intelligence, and the Advisor of the National Security.  The presence of John Kerry in the Ministry of the Foreign Affairs has formed the first sign of a series of appointments for the alternatives for the team of war, it was culminated by Kerry’s visit to Moscow to announce an agreement on a main principle entitled; No for the American military intervention in the war on Syria like the Libyan way, and that the common work on a political solution despite its complications and the complications of its achievement is a common choice for Moscow and Washington. This achievement was sufficient for Moscow at that time to accept a common statement that grants Washington through its ambiguity what made it addressing its allies, by saying that the political solution is implicitly open on the possibility of the departure of the Syrian President without going to war.

The two main problems in the path of the development of the Russian American understanding since that visit were first, the presenting of Russia of a suitable exit of the issue of the Syrian Presidency that does not affect its sovereignty in front of its allies and the American forces of the public opinion on one hand. Second, how to deal with the armed organizations which Al Nusra Front forms their backbone and which their targeting with Al Nusra or neutralizing them from it forms a qualitative development in the balances of powers in favor of the Syrian country and its president. These two matters are relevant to each other and to the relationship of Washington with its allies, but they rule the hesitant American position because of the American assurance that the matter first and foremost is a matter of balances of powers where there is no place for emotional positions or good intentions to reach to an understanding, because every shift in favor of the Syrian country means a weakness in the American position specially in the Turkish, Saudi, Israeli triangle which ensures its interests in the Middle East. Washington knows as well that this shift in the balances will mean surely the admission of the Russian Iranian sticking to the strategic initiative in the geographical Asian range that is stretched from the Mediterranean Sea to Afghanistan towards China.

Washington is aware that this visit may be the last and the most important before the end of the mandate of the President Obama or at least before the American presidential elections. This means that any resulting understanding will be an electoral push for the candidate who is supported by the US President and his administration, especially that this understanding will affect the war on terrorism and what Washington aspires to as a victory on ISIS. So if this visit was crowned with understanding this would pave the way for a smooth withdrawal from Afghanistan in the early next year, on the basis of the reassurance for an Asian map that is resulted from the geographical convergence in the Afghan Asian by the giants of Asia, Russia, China, and Iran without taking the form of the challenge to America. This visit comes after Washington and its allies had exhausted of the maneuvers and the bets. So neither making use of Al Nusra Front while it is being defeated in Aleppo is possible, nor the bet on a war and a victory on ISIS by the Syrian forces that are supported by America is possible too. What has happened in Al Raqqa and Boukamal is proving that strongly, but after the Russian positioning in the war and what it granted it of a surplus power there is nothing can prevent the dramatic developments in it in favor of the Syrian country and its allies that leads to opportunities for a settlement that keeps what it can be kept in favor of Washington’s allies and the allies of Washington’s allies.

Kerry went to Moscow to meet his counterpart Sergei Lavrov and the President Vladimir Putin, he has paved the way for the visit saying that he will restrict the mission by the understanding on the rules of the cooperation in the war on ISIS and Al Nusra, but he said something against the allies of Saudi Arabia and Turkey; the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham that has provoked a big controversy in Washington that is similar to what Moscow is calling for. He knows that Turkey has started a path that meets what Moscow is calling for. But regarding the Syrian presidency the American talk has become restricted to the talking about the pressures on the commitment to a political solution and ensuring the truce, as well neglecting the talk about the overthrowing, the stepping down, and the impatience, as the condoning of joining Crimea Peninsula to Russia.

Washington’s allies are anticipating the consequences of the visit, while Moscow’s allies are comfortable and confident that if the understanding was achieved then the war would move on in a course that is secured militarily but politically winding, and if it was not achieved then the war would move on in a course militarily winding but politically secured.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,