Written by Nasser Kandil,
Due to the crisis caused by the Saudi decision of imposing the siege on Qatar in order to bring it down by either a coup or an occupation or both of them the signs of marking time began to emerge. Qatar succeeded in absorbing the first consequences of the war and succeeded in securing the elements of marking time, and mobilizing positions that protect it against the military invasion with a formal coup or without it. The title became the form of a settlement and the negotiation to reach it, this title was in favor of Qatar by making the siege a daily event to coexist with the crisis normally inside Qatar or outside it.
Many people think that what Mohammed Bin Salman thought when he took the decision of the war on Qatar that the US and the Israeli coverage are enough to say that the war has ended and what is left are executive steps for sequent days, but those forget what Bin Salman forgot that such of this coverage was available in his war on Yemen according to the same scenario and for days and weeks, but now after two years and a half the war has not ended and it seems that it has no end.
All the differences between Yemen and Qatar are in favor of the turning of Qatar’s crisis into what is more dangerous than the war of Yemen to Saudi Arabia, because the Saudi enemy in Yemen is a poor party that cannot buy the officials of the West and does not belong to the same system of connections and interest to which Saudi Arabia belongs, so the dealing with it concerning the major interests is frightening as the dealing with the resistant team as Ansar Allah, while Qatar is a source of temptation. In both cases the issue is not the danger of an Iranian intervention which the Saudis know that it is not possible, but in case of Qatar the danger becomes present through the Turkish intervention on the basis that Turkey considers that overthrowing Qatar is a way to alienate it away from the race with Saudi Arabia for reserving the first seat versus Iran in the regional system.
In the case of Yemen, the coexistence with the war without horizon is an achievement of victory that is related to military, financial, human, and moral attrition, but the coexistence with the Qatari crisis without horizon is a resolving in favor of Saudi Arabia, which means the preparation for a formal settlement where the two teams know that it is a truce for a declared Cold War in which money, media, terrorism, and diplomacy will be used. Both of them have enough balance to wage this war in order to cause the fall of the other from the inside, after the attempt of besieging it and affecting it from outside. The Gulf will witness a mobility that was not known before in the quest to attract the opponents of the other, financing, recruiting, organizing, and activating them. There will be rounds and rounds. Therefore, although the Saudis wanted from disciplining Qatar to make it an example for others, but the example of Qatar will turn to be an encouraging example for disobedience.
The coexistence with the Qatari crisis will be a continuous fire, where the forces which have hostility with Saudi Arabia and Qatar will benefit from it as Iran, Syria, the national forces in Yemen and Bahrain, moreover the Qatari and the Saudi groups will fight in Syria, and the money will be paid to attract the European and the American media towards the Lebanese one in this war. It seems that it is the time for the wars which exhausted the Orient to calm down because the Gulf arena has become chaff that is ready to be ignited.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,