The American Russian debate …to where?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It seems that there is a round of public American and Russian debate that rises gradually and it seems that its process is escalated too; its center is the situation in Syria. When the Us Secretary of States John Kerry said that the patience of his government is running out due to the reluctance of Moscow in determining a date for the departure of the Syrian President, the response came double from the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, on one hand he said that there was not any discussion about the fate of the Syrian President between Washington and Moscow, and there were not any Russian pledges of determining a date for the departure of Bashar Al-Assad, but Washington knows the position of Moscow which is based on that the chaos will pervaded in the region without the President Bashar Al-Assad, on the other hand,  he said that the Minister Kerry has be more patient because he would need it more in the coming days, here it cannot be said that it’s over, because when the Russian President Vladimir Putin emerged publicly on the next day at economic conference to say that Moscow considers the proposal of Washington through the participation of some of the opponents  in the Syrian current  government  useful, Washington responded immediately that it did not suggest something similar to Moscow,, so we have to conclude from the level of the mutual messages and who is sending them that the debate is on the verge of more escalation.

The degree of seriousness is clear when the Russian President became involved directly in the debate, and when Washington responded by denying what was attributed to it after months of cooperation and exchanging the signs by cooperation, and  despite years of contrast and confrontations that preceded. It is clear that the debate is an expression of a public negotiation that is going on in front of the allies and the opponents; it has a function in drawing the ceilings on which it based on before entering the closed negotiation rooms and the rise of the white smoke which announces the new understanding. It is supposed that August must be preceded by the announced entitlement from Moscow and Washington as a ceiling for launching the political process, while the most important entitlement is the starting of the race to the White House and the need of Washington for an achievement that gives to its democratic candidate in this critical state of election, it is unavailable achievement neither in presenting the political solutions for the Israeli-Arab conflict from the gate of Palestinian Israeli understanding,  nor in the conflict with Iran. It seems that its only gateway after the process of Orlando is the war on ISIS, it is a war in which the bets of Washington have failed in achieving valuable breakthroughs comparing with the betting on its capacities and who is accompanied it without the knowledge of Russia and its allies.

The document of the American diplomats which calls for the US military intervention in Syria against the country, its army, and its president is a need upon request for the administration of the President Obama to show the reluctance in implementing the agreed commitments of the previous understandings, in terms of dismantling the engagement between Al Nusra Front and the armed groups which affiliated to the opposition according to the classification of Washington,  it is the result of the pressures’ exertion on the administration  that cannot be ignored despite the knowledge of Washington and Moscow of the hidden Saudi intervention in financing the signatories on that document, and in conjunction with the visit of the Saudi Crown Crown Prince to Washington, and the discussion of the Syrian issue in his meetings, so Washington alleged of the document and announced its insistence to study it well, suggesting that it embarrasses it in this crucial minute electoral moment, thus it requires an understanding from Moscow , this means putting the issue of  the intergradations between Al Nusra and the armed groups which is disabled since months on debate, thus Washington protested on targeting opposition groups affiliated to it by Moscow, while Moocow responded immediately that it is a normal matter after the impossibility of distinguishing between these oppositions and Al Nusra Front.

In front of any escalation there is an impasse. Washington fully knows that, it is not in a position which allows it to listen neither to Mohammed Bin Salman nor to Adel Al Jubeir, nor to wage a war against Syria, which it gave up of it after its fleets moved in the Mediterranean Sea, and when it had not signed the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program yet, and when Russia had not positioned in Syria, or Saudi Arabia had not involved and failed in Yemen, and after the slogan of the war was convincing enough under a legal name entitled the usage of the chemical weapons, so today it will not resort to it after everything has been changed in another course as the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency John Brennan  has explained in detail, today the issue is electoral, and it needs a victory on ISIS not an involvement in a war, the US President Barack Obama said that his refusal to wage such a war is the most important thing which he is proud of, despite the incitement of some of the allies and some of the interior, because he knows that it would have been a swamp and a trap for his country and his administration.

Starting from two clear different ceilings means hot negotiation, one calls to neutralize the armed groups from the aerial raids and the ground war while they are engaging with Al Nusra, it calls as well for putting the fate of the Syrian President on negotiation, opposed by a ceiling that said of the impossibility of neutralizing those who do not go out of the areas under the dominance of Al Nusra, and to accept to participate into a government under the presidency of the Syrian President. Among political and media engagements and military battles in the northern and in the southern of Syria and its middle and during one month a scene of balances will be drawn, they say that there will be early presidential elections within two years under UN supervision which the Syrian President has already announced his readiness for it under a comprehensive understanding, it will be the solution which Washington can give it to its allies and the allies of its allies to tell them that it trusts what they say about their popular capacity, it has ensured for them fair conditions to be in the competition through the ballot boxes, it calls moreover for the launch of Geneva to form a government that oversees the modification of the constitution and the preparation for the elections, including dismantling the engagement among the participated groups in Geneva and the terrorist formations.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,