The chemistry between Putin and Macron…. and Syria

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Russian circuits closer to the President Vladimir Putin talk about a chemistry that he discovered through his relation with an international political leader, then it is shown that this leader has a position on the chess map which is run by the professional player Putin, and that this role starts from reading the important influence of his country on the main file in the Russian agenda, a role that is drawn by the same ability to bear the dispute and the crises, along with the ability to tolerate and to grant opportunities. The basis depends on a quiet reading of the interests of the country and the well-established status of the leader, and on the paths which Russia will impose on the file which it wants a partnership in it, a reading of how the concerned leader adapts to the variables, and the ability to take his country by the force of his influence towards the choices which he finds them interact with his interests and aspirations towards the historic leadership between leaving the imprint which he looks for it on one hand, and between the interests of his country and their effective forces in it on the other hand.

This has happened with the Turkish President Recep Erdogan and the French President Emanuel Macron, in case of Erdogan, the beginning was not through the convergence of the Russian and the Turkish polices on the pivotal issue of the foreign policy of the two countries, namely the war on Syria, however the chemical relationship started between Putin and Erdogan, in other words, it means a Russian aspiration to attract Turkey to play a role, while Turkey was leading the war axis on Syria against the bank led by Russia, but when the collision occurred by a Turkish decision, Putin seemed firm and resolving, but he soon showed tolerance and presented the inducements to pave the way for the new role.

By virtue of the geography of the Middle East, Putin’s vision seems to be inclined to establish two strategic partnerships in managing the solution in Syria, one with a Turkish –Iranian bilateral from Astana, it manages the security file in its political and military dimensions to prevent the division of Syria, and to  arrange the integration of the armed groups which are sponsored by Turkey into a apolitical solution that ends with a unified government under the leadership of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, in preparation for a new constitution and parliamentary and presidential elections according to the UN resolution 2254. The second partnership is still in the beginnings, it may be under crises and disputes as the first one, but it opens up to tolerance and paving the role for a new role, it revolves around the files of reconstruction and the return of the displaced,  it is a French-Chinese bilateral. The funding imposed by the file of reconstruction and the displaced along with its economic and security importance to Europe and France in particular is not possible for the Gulf which is bankrupt and divided to offer, and it cannot be thought of without China. France which complains from the absence of the European vision and the fragmentation of its forces and interests, and from the US political weakness is anticipating to reserve a role and a seat, since it sees the Gulf and what it suffers, and it sees the opposition and its divisions, so it is not obliged to enter in the direct political search under conditions that alienate it from its allies, but on the contrary they will follow it if there is a path that is similar to Astana that is open on the planned negotiation paths that remain Russian and American in essence.

Macron studies the call for an international regional Syrian conference about the reconstruction and the displaced, hosted by Paris and in which the Syrian government and figures from the private sector whether loyalists or from the opposition, the experts, the United Nations and its bodies, the donor countries from Europe, the Gulf, Japan, the funds, and the concerned international banks, along with China participate. This role requires to open the French embassy in Damascus, and to benefit from the revenues of that in having a Syrian cooperation in the file of terrorists from French ancestries which exerts pressure on Paris as a dire necessity. There will not be a problem if France adopts a diplomatic speech that commensurate with an acceptable role by all the concerned parties in the Syrian crisis to reserve a role for itself.

It is the beginning of the chemistry between Putin and Macron that produces an interaction in Syria!

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,