The international regional victory and the local losses cannot be achieved together

Written by Nasser Kandil,

No one can prevent Hezbollah from its right in celebrating the victory which it achieved by imposing the nomination of the General Michael Aoun for the presidency of the Republic on Saad Al-Hariri, and making this nomination a compulsory way to fill the presidential vacancy and reactivating the processes of the country and its institutions, because the presidential elections in Lebanon have occurred at a moment of a negative balance in the balances of the regional and the international forces which rule the bloody existential  conflict between two campaigns, Hezbollah is on the forefront of one of them, while the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri is heading the local team which is originally related and which is totally involved in the war in which Hezbollah is at its opposite bank, just for that was the confrontation between two presidential candidates, who every one of them represents the eagle in the front of his allies. The General Michael Aoun was versus the Head of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea, but after the balances have changed in favor of the front which Hezbollah represents its additive value, two shifts have been changed in his favor, the first one is that Al- Hariri has withdrawn his nomination from the Geagea’ nomination in favor of one of Hezbollah’s closest allies; the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh, hoping to achieve a balance of losses; the nomination of Franjieh the ally of Hezbollah was by Al-Hariri, where Hezbollah withdraws its support from its candidate the General Michel Aoun versus Al-Hariri withdraws his nomination from his candidate Geagea.The second development is the transferring of Geagea to the bank of the supporters of the nomination of the General Aoun to prevent the arrival of Franjieh to the presidency, thus was the insistence of Hezbollah stubbornly on continuing its sticking to the nomination of Aoun and considering him a compulsory way for the Lebanese presidency, bearing bleeding and suffering in the campaign of its alliances by refusing going on with a reliable important ally for the presidency, and bearing the lack of concern of its allies who have found according to the local considerations that the nomination of Franjieh is an opportunity for Hezbollah to achieve what it wants at the regional level and an opportunity  for them to cooperate with a convenient presidential candidate compared with their tense relations with Aoun, at the forefront of those the Head of the Parliament the speaker Nabih Berri. But after the steadfastness that lasts for months, the pressures and the bets of many people of the impossibility of the arrival of Al-Hariri to the stage of the ” political suicide” by accepting Aoun, something happened was not taken into account, so Hezbollah has achieved what it wanted, while the Prime Minister Al-Hariri has surrendered to the specific request, by announcing the nomination first then starting to overcome the obstacles.

It is not discussable that the surreal Lebanese scene internally which is full of riddles and puzzles of the positions of the teams toward the presidential elections cannot hide the fact that the resounding victory which was achieved by Hezbollah equals half of its victory in the war of July amid the international and regional absence of the equation of the Lebanese presidency, the decline of the alliance which Al-Hariri is standing in it, and the attainment of the crises of this alliance limits that made Al-Hariri  choose the bitter instead of the most bitter, in addition to the consequences of the defeat of his allies and their financial bankruptcy,  especially after what has affected Saudi Arabia politically, militarily, and financially, while Hezbollah feels the victories of its allies in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria since signing the understanding on the Iranian nuclear issue and devoting the first ally of Hezbollah a regional authority that is taken into consideration, as well as a devotion  of Russia’s status as a strong critical international ally in the policies of the basin of the Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore the good selection of Hezbollah of its presidential candidate has contributed a lot in granting the elements of the internal steadfastness in this battle, waiting the regional international equation which Hezbollah’s opponents have linked their position toward the presidency with it, since the famous Al ‘Hariri’s speech in the beginning of the Syrian crisis that he does not want to return to Beirut but only from the Damascus Airport after the fall of the Syrian country and its president. This selection has ensured superior standard in favor of Hezbollah by depending on representing the sects in the positions which depend on the wider representation of their leaders, so this has granted the equation of nominating Aoun positive objective reasons that can be defended strongly. Aoun as well has been granted the opportunity of the negotiation with Al –Hariri because he is his opportunity to return back to the presidency of the government according to his same nomination’s standard, and since he has the wider representation in his community. But these factors would not lead to the victory of Hezbollah without the disciplined dealing with ethics by the local partners of Hezbollah specially the ones who are mainly concerned with the presidential elections. So neither the Deputy Franjieh who has great fortunes as a candidate that the majority can grant him the opportunity to win has accepted to abandon or to gamble with his alliance with Hezbollah in exchange of the temptation of presidency, nor the Head of the Parliament who supports Franjieh and who objects the arrival of Aoun has accepted to take this adventure. Thus the victory of Hezbollah which the General Michael Aoun is celebrating today is the outcome of the steadfastness of Hezbollah and its stability, as it is the outcome of the steadfastness of the General Aoun and his stability; it is also the outcome of the keenness and loyalty of the two allies Berri and Franjieh.

Hezbollah ends the regional international victory today with the announcement of Al-Hariri of the nomination of Aoun, in order to start the path of preventing the turning of the unprecedented regional international victory of a president “Made in Lebanon” who is a trusted ally president by the resistance and a friend of Syria into losses that affect the alliance of the resistance from the inside, and thus the relation of Hezbollah with the political, military, demographic, social, and cultural partner  will be affected with distress and tension, and this strategic partnership between Hezbollah and the Speaker Berri will be affected also with disinclination, if Hezbollah does not have the same attitude due to the refusal of going on in presidency but in partnership, as the political background of the allies of Hezbollah will be affected internally with many losses due to the internal understandings which surround the arrival of the General Aoun to presidency, As the understanding with Al-Hariri on one hand, and the understanding with the Lebanese forces on other hand, thus Hezbollah finds itself in front of an entitlement that is not of less importance than what has passed, how it can turn the victory  after what it achieved of regional and international profits into profits that are shared by the allies of the same options, not profits for some and losses for others.

The turning of the regional and the international profit into local profits provided the continuation of this profit has started with the ally who standstills as a candidate and has got the support of Hezbollah due to his representative magnitude and his political steadfastness, he feels today that he has become closer than any  other day to enter Baada Palace as a President of the Republic, and the current challenge how can Hezbollah from this balance re-gather the profits and distribute them on the allies rather than the distribution of losses. The matter is not mere reassuring against the groups of the two or three despite their importance, but by the real partnership in the form of the rule that shows the values of the coalition in which Hezbollah has presented an example of their practicing according to the standards of loyalty and altruism. The General Aoun the presidential candidate is proceeding from his new position thus this led to the dispelling of the doubts and the misgivings of the partnership’s offers that cannot be refused by the allies who doubt, and whom their positions are not compared with what they say against him today. So the happy advocates of the General Aoun raises against them vilification campaigns, some consider them enemies, for example, Al-Hariri who was an enemy of yesterday or Geagea who was an enemy before have become friends. Their position is measured by looking deeply in the question what if Berri and Franjieh decide to attend the session of presidential election without a partnership with Hezbollah, as was the nomination of Franjieh supported by Al-Hariri and the Deputy Walid Jumblatt, and there was not a problem of ensuring the quorum or the majority, so was that possible without their position?

The example of the winning president by the force of the stability of the resistance and the loyalty of their allies, even if it is against their interests is achieved by making the victory inclusive to the allies, and by giving up of the profits and sharing them among the allies as well as by refusing the temptation of monopolies which Al-Hariri will encourage Aoun to commit them to obtain alike. While the stability, prosperity, and starting from a strong era are able to stop any collective rule in which the profits are in parallel with the roles and the sacrifices in achieving the victory, not with the oral positions toward the nomination. So the form of rule which the General Aoun will present its example to the allies as partners in drawing the choices and making decision not as consolation prizes offered to them will determine whether the internal resistance alliance is capable of accommodate its regional and international victory. So this openness to the balanced equal partnership alone can deny what is said about understandings under the table, or groups of two or three and will reassure the souls and the concerns and will be a base for the era of stability, prosperity, and the establishment of a country.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,