The regional labor is Turkish and Saudi

Written by Nasser Kandil, 

The American action in the region does not suggest of having a clear political operation visions for the war or for the settlement or for both of them, as it was two years ago at the peak of its rashness for the war, or the attempt to change its outcome into a negotiating acumination after its despair in picking the fruits of the deceive victory. The American performance since the understanding on the political solution of the chemical weapon in Syria, and then the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program was a daily performance that is directed by controls not by a plan, it is an outcome of the passion not the action, it says yes or no according to the steps that its allies who are going on in the plans of escalation propose, and its Russian partner who is trying to attract it by the force of the impasse, the failure, and the inability to the exits that save the acceptable interests, and save facing. Whenever the American has a proposal, he checks and measures it on controls such as what if we say (No) and what if we say (Yes). This is what the American did when the Russians proposed a settlement its title the path of Vienna, at the peak of the military dashing for the Sukoi storm and the field crushing movement of the Syrian army and its allies. The content of the settlement was the exclusion of the fate of the Syrian presidency out of the terms of the political solution, making the war on terrorism a priority of the international and regional intervention, the pursuit for a Syrian unified government that is a partner in it where neither Al Nusra front nor ISIS participates in it, and leaving the others to choice between accepting or joining Al-Nusra or ISIS. The American consideration is if we say No the war will continue and the decisive victory will be accomplished in favor of Syria and its allies ,so it would be better to say Yes, but the American did not say Yes and did not put a plan in order to translate it,  but in order to avoid the repercussions of No. that was when the Turkish and the Saudi said let us break down the exception of the truce, containing Al Nusra and restricting it with ISIS, he said Yes because he assumed that Yes will improve the negotiating situation under the ceiling of the settlement with the Russian, in the light of what he betted on of the ability of Al- Nusra through the support of its allies to impose a military fait accompli that makes the Russian acceptance improbable, and when he failed he said to the Russian Yes, Al Nusra is a legitimate goal of the war.

The American labor ended with an equation of going on with the Russian but under the limits of settlements and wars, we will commit not to compel our allies with, we will postpone giving them the longer time to arrange their papers, we will not make the Russians plan ours. The American outcome is independent of the Russians and of the allies, it is the Al Raqqa attack by the Democratic Forces of Syria which based mainly on the Kurds, they arouse the suspicion of the Turks, it is different from the plan of Saudi Arabia. The goal between the two ceilings is the maximum through the control of the geography of the negotiating Syria under the title of a local opposition, and the minimum through imposing symbolic military presence in the Syrian issue. Washington does not mind if its allies succeed in achieving the accomplishments of Al Nusra war, or in depleting Syria and its allies, it is ready to employ all what they achieved in negotiations, but it will not pay the cost of their failure and will not submit to their pressure to join them, furthermore it will not allow them to surpass the controls which undermine the understandings with the Russians such as the kind of arming the armed groups and the limits of the direct intervention in the war.

Each of Turkey and Saudi Arabia put their importance to continue the war of Al Nusra and to bet on it, they know that everything other than Al Nusra is just a military scene including the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham. In this summer, the bet of that war, its choices, and its ends is to ensure linking Aleppo and Idlib with the Turkish borders or a production of depletion lines  of intersecting geography, or a victory of the Syrian army and its allies that links Aleppo and Idlib with the geography that is under the dominance of the army, reaching the Turkish Syrian borders and turning what remains of the presence of Al Nusra and its supporters into points that their eradication requires just time. What was remarkable was that each of Saudi Arabia and Turkey showed reverse signs of the choice of escalation in anticipation of what might happen, and a linking with what cannot affect the shares of settlements, the forefront intersection with these settlements in Saudi Arabia is cancelling the representative of the Army of Islam Mohammed Alloush from the negotiating delegation, opening a dialogue between the group of Riyadh with the rest of the opposition components under the slogan of expanding the negotiating delegation, and the speech of the Saudi Crown Prince about the necessity to reconsider the policies and to accept the difficult concessions, in addition to the zigzagged stable path to stick to the negotiation about the political solution in Yemen, while the most important sign of Turkey was the speech of the Turkish Foreign Minister reported  by official media means about considering the most important priority in Syria  is to keep its unity, which means neither the political change nor overthrowing its President and its regime, and that Iran and Russia constitute the most prominent powers that share the same goal with Turkey, thus it must seek to develop Turkish Russian Iranian understanding that ensures its achieving.

The Americans continue their way in the war of Al Raqqa which is marking time, while they are seeing the progress of the Syrian army under a Russian coverage, while the Turks and the Saudis are standing at the crossroads between the option of escalation and the settlements, waiting for a deceive round which the Northern areas of Syria are prepared for, Ramadan month will witness its beginnings while its consequences will be emerged in August, thus the path and the fate will be determined, however the labor which the Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef has foreshadowed of which will include difficult concessions will end, the Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu said that it includes an announcement of a Turkish understanding with Russia and Iran, and the  adequacy of non-forming the Kurdish entity on the borders of Turkey as a concept of the Turkish national security in Syria.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,