Syria is winning politically after militarily
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The Turkish analysts, journalists, and those who support Turkey, along with those who are hostile to Syria and the resistance axis will be preoccupied to show that the summit which brought together the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Turkish President Recep Erdogan was a Turkish-Russian victory at the expense of Syria since no one can say that Russia lost. But it will be difficult for any one of those to have answers to these questions: Where is Erdogan’s threat of a military operation entitled “Spring Shield” for which he set a date and a goal; to return the Syrian army to the points where it was before the start of its military operations? Where is the talk about driving the Syrian army to beyond the Turkish control points? What about the international road which links Aleppo with Damascus and which became under the control of the Syrian army after fierce battles, the most important of which was the battle of Saraqib? What has happened to the northern and western countryside of Aleppo which became under the control of the Syrian army?
The simple reading of the summit’s results says that the agreement has dealt with what has not been achieved by the Syrian army of Sochi Understanding. The agreement ignored totally what has been achieved by the Syrian army by showing that the part of de-escalation areas was not under negotiation, since what is proposed is the choice between the continuation of the progress of the Syrian army with its allies supported by the Russian fire to free the areas from terrorism with the partnership of the Turkish army especially the areas securing the international road between Aleppo and Latakia or the Turkish President’s attempt to face-saving by renewing his pledge to cooperate in carrying out the mission by ensuring opening the road on one hand, and confronting the terrorist groups on the other hand. Since what is gone is gone and what was before Saraqib is not like what is after it.
The meaningful debate is about whether Erdogan is going to abide by the obligations or will he return to prevarication and the bet on variables and deception, knowing that Erdogan’s history is full of such wrong bets. But what is must be read by Erdogan and his allies is that it is the first time where the Russian-Turkish understanding occurred to dedicate the results of a Syrian military victory in the field not in the total political outcome of the understandings, and to reduce geography and time according to the results of this victory. What has been resolved has ended, and what is left is either to return to resolution or to give another opportunity. Erdogan knows that the balances which will rule the upcoming battles will be in favor of the Syrian army and the allies where Russia will be more involved publicly and where everything will be in harmony with the plan adopted by the Syrian army since the first battle of Aleppo three years ago that followed by rolling victories.
The only context presented by Moscow’s understanding is clear; the restoration of the Syrian state of its full geography, the preservation of its unity and sovereignty, and opening the door for a Turkish retreat under the recognition of that equation, because it is the irrevocable framework for vivid stability on one hand, and in order to dispel the Turkish concerns about the Kurdish file on the other hand. Adana Agreement will remain present on the table.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,