Debate Within the Entity Over the Ground Operation… Northern Commander Fears the Hornet’s Nest and the Tunnels / Have the U.S. and Israel Accepted the Failure of Their Lethal Package and Acknowledged the Reality of a Unified Front?

September 26, 2024

Albinaa’ Newspaper Headlines

The political editor wrote

Leaked information about a proposed agreement being crafted behind the scenes – awaiting the meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and the occupying entity’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tomorrow, Friday – reveals that the American-Israeli wager on subduing Hezbollah by force has reached a dead end. Hezbollah has successfully absorbed the shock of the lethal package aimed at it, which saw 10,000 of its supporters and fighters taken out of the battlefield – 1% of its base, estimated at one million Lebanese who closely support Hezbollah, and 10% of its fighting force – a force that is estimated at 100,000 fighters. This loss – proportionally speaking- is equivalent to 3.5 million Americans and 100,000 soldiers being removed from the battlefield, a blow that could topple a superpower. Yet, Hezbollah has emerged from this ordeal standing strong, regaining the initiative and promising to escalate support fronts with renewed vigour. Its firepower has rendered an area half the size of Lebanon, extending 65 kilometres deep from the Lebanese border and 90 kilometres wide, uninhabitable. The number of people fleeing this zone continues to rise.

This impasse in the war plan has sparked debates over the feasibility of a ground invasion on one hand, and the prospect of a broader war on the other. Simultaneously, diplomatic efforts are advancing with proposals that recognize the concept of a unified front, suggesting a simultaneous and interconnected ceasefire in both Lebanon and Gaza.

Within the entity, discussions have moved away from the idea of urban warfare and indiscriminate strikes on civilian areas, fearing similar repercussions on the entity. This shift was catalysed by the arrival of the ‘Qader 1’ missile over Jaffa, which threatened the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv and sent two million settlers into shelters. This triggered memories of a scenario outlined in Hebrew newspapers about a year ago, prepared by the entity’s internal security service, the Shin Bet (Shabak), which predicted the shutdown of airports, railways, and a collapse of electricity and communications infrastructure in the event of a potential conflict with Hezbollah.

The debate has since shifted to the ground operation, with concerns mounting over its complexity. A comparison between a potential ground war with Hezbollah and past conflicts, like the 2006 Lebanon war and the more recent battles with Hamas, only highlights the increased challenges today. Despite statements from the Pentagon indicating that the Israeli army is not prepared for a ground war with Hezbollah, the idea of launching such an operation remains on the table. A live broadcast discussion between Northern Commander Uri Gordon and the 7th Armored Brigade leadership revealed fears of facing what he described as a “hornet’s nest”, and the network of tunnels along the contact line.

All of this discussion is taking place against the backdrop of statements from senior officers in the occupying army noting Hezbollah’s retention of its strategic missile capabilities. These officers have called for a ceasefire in Gaza to secure a ceasefire on the Lebanese front, a sentiment echoed in reports of ongoing U.S.-French diplomatic efforts. These efforts, though not yet solidified, aim to reach an agreement based on simultaneous ceasefires on both fronts – a position Hezbollah firmly supports. There are ambiguous indications that Netanyahu may be willing to accept this formula, despite reports that he informed Washington of his acceptance in principle, with details to be discussed during his meeting with President Biden tomorrow.