What is after Al Ghouta?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Those who ask questions about the victories of the Syrian army and its future should remember the questions they posed with every similar victory before the decisive battle of Aleppo, and questions as will the Russians support the Syrian army till the end? And will Turkey stand doing nothing? What about the Russian- Iranian relationship with Turkey? And what can Israel and America do, since they will not leave the Syrian army emerge victorious?. Despite the facts in the battle of Aleppo, and then in Deir Al Zour, Boukamal , and today in Al Ghouta the same questions emerge without benefitting from the answers provided by a year and a half of the battles and the consecutive victories.

The answer to the questions starts from saying that Aleppo is more important than Al Ghouta to Turkey, and Boukamal is more important than Al Ghouta to America, Al Quneitra and the south-west line of Syria is more important than Al Ghouta to Israel. The bargaining of the allies with the Syrian state may be possible in everywhere other than Al Ghouta. What was proven by the battles of Aleppo, Deir Al Zour, Boukamal, and Al Ghouta together as the stability of the allies, the power of the Syrian army, and the inability of the enemies dominate the future of what remains of the war on Syria.

Al Ghouta which many were wondering despite the victories and the liberation of more than of its half a week ago about how to end the rest which is described by the most difficult, is providing the answer through the rolling stones of domino from Harsta, Ain Tarma, Irbin, and Zamalka and the withdrawal of the militias of Ahrar Al Sham and the readiness of the militants of Al Rahman legion to do the same, in addition to the confusion that affected the leadership and the militants of the army of Islam who were ready to withdraw but their problem was the rejection of the armed groups to receive them in Idlib and the refusal of the Syrian army to allow their withdrawal to Idlib.

After Al Ghouta as every time the analysts wonder what is the next destination of the Syrian army, usually it is surprise. Is it Idlib, countryside of Aleppo, Daraa, or Quneitra? But for sure the results will be in favor of the Syrian army and will be added to the cohesion of its allies and the limitedness available options and the weakness of the ability of its enemies to form serious challenge capable of stopping that progress.

Despite the Turkish and the American occupation of the north and their hiding behind the Kurdish title, the Syrian country and its allies have options and margins that are not used yet to repeat the liberation politically and militarily as happened in the other areas. The former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford talked about a bilateral that; there is no US war to protect the Kurdish entity and there is no hope in the long staying for the Americans in Syria when Syria and its allies decide to resolve the progress northwards, he said in the end they know that they will soon pack their bags for departure.

Israel which supports that war, links its destiny, presence, and strategy with the future of this war. When Israel asked the United Nations to redeploy the UNDOF units on the separation line in Golan after it violated it itself and made it under the domination of the armed groups hoping of a security belt once, and betting on the desecration of the Syrian geography many times, then this means that Israel has found that hiding behind the United Nations is the best bad available options and what is coming is worse through betting on variables that weaken the Syrian state and stop its path towards victory and liberation.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,