Written by Nasser Kandil,
It seems that all the conflicts in our region are taking place in countries none of which is living in enviable economic or social conditions, where the political authorities in most of the surrounding countries do not seem that they got popular satisfaction or having the legitimacy to be fine in front of any bomb caused by real essential crises or cross – fabricated ones. Iran which has experienced suffocated financial crisis and remained sticking to its political regime and the popular rally around it that was exploded surprisingly in the funeral of the Commander Qassem Soleimani cannot ignore the demonstrations after the crash of the Ukrainian plane or the increase of fuel price. On the other bank, the occupation entity lives a political disability during the readiness for the early elections for the third time after a year of inability to form new government, in addition to the increase of unemployment, decline of growth, and the increase of the budget deficit. The reports of the International Monetary Fund talked about the urgent need to a set of reforms especially the privatization .In Turkey as in Egypt, there is a deterioration in the currency exchange and a mutual concern between the two governments from the opposite regional policies and roles in the region, but there is a recognition that they have internal political movement against the regime that cannot be ignored. While countries as Iraq, Jordan, Palestine are experiencing conditions that are getting worse politically and economically, in addition to what is taking place in Sudan and Algeria politically and socially and what is experienced by Tunisia economically, socially, and politically. Syria is still confronting the open ten- years war against it along with the financial and economic blockade and political and livelihood crises.
Currently, Lebanon is not a rare case, but no one as Lebanon lives in a state of loss and strategic negligence regarding the issues that draw the maps of the new region and determine its alliances and choices no matter whether they are right or no. Iran which lives under siege, pursuit and threat forms a third party in an international alliance with China and Russia to rearrange the situation in Asia and a regional superpower in the decision-making centers. While Israel which is lost politically does not forget to take the initiative to lead an alliance for gas and oil through a project of pumping gas to Europe in which Greece, Cyprus, and Italy participate. Egypt, Jordan and Palestine join Israel and its allies in the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline. Iraq has great options as to oust the American troops and a strategic economic treaty with China. Turkey which is a member in the NATO heads towards Russia to meet the new maps of oil, it extends towards Libya and forms a passage for the Russian role in the northern coast of Africa, where Africa forms a partner in the South Stream pipeline to transfer the Russian gas to Europe. Syria which is tired is present in the new strategic scene, its military political alliance with Russia and Iran becomes an economic one and it extends in oil and gas, so it imposes on Turkey not to tamper in the Syrian interior, so this makes the Syrian gas a natural member in the club headed by Moscow and which includes Ankara and searches for a share in Libya.
The Lebanese people think that the talk about these maps is a luxury, since the priority is to resolve their current issues whether if they are among those who advocate the call for the radical change of the political and economic regime or among those who are worried from the turning of the crises into financial collapse, social bomb, and political and security chaos. But in fact they ignore that the new maps do not wait. Lebanon is a productive country of oil and gas. If its financial pressures and the social mobility resulting from these financial conditions are not employed to serve imposing unfair and harsh options on Lebanon before demarcating the final maps, they will be subject to this employment at any case in order to solve the current problems and to seek for an appropriate time to discuss the options related to these maps. Everyone knows that there are two gas alliances in the region one is led by Israel and the other is led by Russia. Lebanon has to choose one. The ongoing political and media battles which ignore this fact aims at exerting pressure on Lebanon to join one of these two alliances contrary to its will and its real interest. It is known that what is intended is not the alliance led by Russia, since David Satterfield’s paper of demarcating our maritime borders that satisfies Israel is waiting for a signature in Lebanon as each one of Jeffrey Feltman and David Schenker told us while they were talking about the financial crisis, the popular movement, and the Lebanese government.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,
Written by Nasser Kandil,