A government in Lebanon, Kerry in Saudi Arabia: Resolving the matters before the end of the year

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The booby-trapping which was affected the track of the coincidence between the exit of the militants from the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo and the exit of the arrested people from Fouaa and Kfrya reveals that Saudi Arabia which found itself outside the settlements which are dedicated to Syria after Turkey has taken the exclusive possession of sponsoring the team which is responsible for separating the opposition from Al Nusra front, has employed its influence on Al Nusra front to sabotage the agreement and to disable the implementation, hoping to regain a role in the settlement which it seems ready to be launched according to the balances which were arranged by the battles of Aleppo, and which stated the fall of the project of the bet on investing Al Nusra front in the Syrian equation. The settlement here is not between two Syrian parties despite the apparent scene which it requires in the apparent Syrian formations, it is a settlement of Russian US basis with the US recognition of the defeat of its project in Syria and the acceptance of the tile of the war on terrorism as an output for a new repositioning. This settlement will be completed after Aleppo with a Syrian Turkish settlement that is sponsored by Russia and Iran and with a US consent, its center is resolving the unity of Syria and its sovereignty under its constitutional institutions specially the presidency and the army, thus to integrate the Syrian titles that are well considered by the Americans and the Turks, along with the US and the Turkish capacity in the war on ISIS under the titles of the Shield of Euphrates, and the Democratic Forces of Syria, in order to reserve seats in a unified Syrian government that paves the way for elections that will be the title of the regional international partnership of US, Russia, Turkey, and Iran in the war on terrorism.

The Saudi game with Al Nusra from outside the rules of the new phase is incomplete and is not appropriate, the US Secretary of State John Kerry moved to Riyadh to draw the lines of the new phase, its titles were a settlement in Yemen and going on in a settlement in Syria, moreover, it does not matter to have a settlement that includes Douma in the countryside of Damascus, the last stronghold for the groups affiliated with Saudi Arabia as the Turkish shares in the settlement, but the settlement must be launched before the new US President Donald Trump assumes the power, otherwise Saudi Arabia will wage a desperate absurd war without horizons for long months before there are horizons for a settlement, and it will be exposed for a war of attrition where it will not be able to lure Iran to it in order to implicate Washington and Tehran in a direct confrontation due to the positions of Donald Trump toward the Iranian nuclear file. The settlements are winding paths that allow the initiatives and achieving the situational gains, not procedural decisions with magical solutions. The war is continuing quietly, but its fires ignite in new fronts while they extinguish in old fronts, so Saudi Arabia has to determine its choice.

In the heart of the Syrian and the Yemeni paths, as well as the US movement toward Saudi Arabia to control its behaviors, Lebanon has succeeded in a record time to establish a government of the first era with thirty ministers from most of the political forces, it has met lot of the demands which many were considering them impossible and were proposed by Hezbollah, and which were adopted by the Speaker of the Parliament in order to sabotage the launch of the formation of the first government and then to weaken the era in its first beginnings, but the new formation in content and speed says that there is no deliberate complication to prevent the formation of the government or to disable the path of the launch of the era, but a containment of the problems and overcoming the obstacles which may affect the prestige of this start if they were ignored, along with doubts, accusations, divisions, and tribalism that are not desired by Hezbollah to this era after it has succeeded in what it aspired to, which means the successive success of Hezbollah in resolving and achieving the presidential and governmental entitlements according to what  it proposed since the first day for the presence of each one of them. The General Michael Aoun for the presidency of the Republic was an obligatory passage and a government of thirty members that involves all the allies, and represents as well Al Marada Movement in a considerable way, it adopts the seek for a law of elections that depends on the relativity, this was noticeable in the words of the Prime Minister after the announcement of his government that the government will seek for a new law of election that depends on relativity and the accuracy of the representation, thus the elections will depend on it in the middle of the next year.

The Speaker of the Parliament has received a lot of arrows of doubts in his governmental intentions. But now the new government treats him with justice, so he solves the knot of the representation of Al Marada Movement from his governmental share, he ensures the representation of women in a ministry entitled by Berri, while the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri adopts what Berri has already called for a quota for women in the new elections law and an innovation of a Ministry for women’s affairs that is assigned to man

The Nationalists have been represented by their head, their demand was to be represented by a Minister that does not allow the Party of the Lebanese Forces to claim the ability to put veto on the Christian representation, after the success of the Forces in embarrassing the Phalanges for getting it out, because there was not among the allies of the Phalanges who can do what the Speaker Berri did with Al Marada by giving it a portfolio from his share. Any way the representation of the nationalists is a responsibility, especially through assuming the Head of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party the responsibility of the Ministry of the country for Parliamentary affairs which seems apparently a formal consolation, while in fact the Minister of the country is the political Minister in the government and the parliamentary affairs. The center of the work of this government is represented by the seek to issue a new law for parliamentary elections in cooperation between the government and the parliament. The Nationalists have their approach, project, and mission on which they will strive to emerge it to light totally or partially. It is a law that depends on the full relativity at the level of Lebanon as a single electoral constituency. So the Nationalists through their ministers will be able to show the suspicious parties of this formula of the election law that it treats them fairly more than others, in order to be able to continue their struggle in the community and the public opinion in parallel with their political struggle from the platforms of the Ministers cabinet and the Parliament.

Is not it the quick formation of the government through conditions which they were refusing an expression of something that is similar to what has made them come for the presidential choice which they were refusing before, and which is similar to what is going on in Syria and Yemen?

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,