Al-Assad draws the map of what is beyond Palmyra

Written by Nasser Kandil,

May be long time will pass before many observers, and some of the concerned who live the Syrian moment from their different sites notice that there is a new qualitative track that has drawn the roadmap of the war destination and the political solution in Syria as a result of the qualitative military strategic process which was carried out by special trained and equipped units of the Syrian army, supported by selected units of the elite that are modest as the number of the allies, as well as a reserve mobilization of popular troops that are prepared to fill the gaps which the advanced troops leave upon their incursion into new areas and liberating them, accompanied with a tense concentrated air  support of the Russia air force with effective participation of the Syrian flight.

All the articulated events which change the destination of the events qualitatively do not leave their impacts immediately, and their consequences do not appear as an immediate outcome , but we start notice that there is something different happening and drawing a new framework for the developments of the events and what comes after, for example where we were witnessing a pulling back and forth and an escalation in the discussion about vocabularies, it is substituted by smooth and fluent ones, and where the priorities were searching for a common definition they become an automatic present matter, and where the attack and retreat was, it becomes a process toward one development to enhance the image of a victor and a defeated, and where the facts were faced with denial they become evident. Some of the denials hide their faces and stay away gradually and some show impertinent and insist to be present and have a position on the triumph bank talking in an immoral way about a political reality that based on coping with the variables. While many of the suspicious turn to be applauders and the war turns into a match where half of the playground becomes free from the spectators and where the applause is for one side and all the fans are in one side.

What the battle of Palmyra did is similar to what the battle of El Alamein did in the Second World War, where there is only one scenario for the future of the war and the political solution in Syria; this is what the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has summarized in his speech, “contrary to the belief that the victories of the Syrian army could delay the calendar of the political solution, these victories are hastening it, because the victories will undertake to overthrow the bets and the illusions of those who hinder the solutions headed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey about  the effectiveness of their alternatives in changing the facts of the field and the political solution, therefore the political solution will proceed on the rhythm of more victories”. The US Secretary of State John Kerry said that the battle of Palmyra is included within the concept of the truce and the political solution which exclude ISIS and Al-Nusa of them, as well as it is included within the concept the agreed concept of the war on terrorism, therefore, every military act that has an international consensus imposes on the opponents a new positioning and a new language which the Americans, the Europeans, and the Secretary-General of the United Nations have undertaken its expression.

Except for all the military elements which grant the process an exceptional value in the war and the geographical value of Palmyra through its centering the linking and connecting lines between the provinces of Syria and its fourth directions and the oil and gas lines, the choices of crossing from and to the borders, in Palmyra the fate of the project of ISIS has been determined, just for that the organization has put all its importance to win the battle, it did not have any way to accept the option of the tactic withdrawals which it depends on in the difficult and exhausting confrontations, the loss of Palmyra makes the war at the gates of the fateful existential strongholds of the organization in Al Raqqa and Deir al-Zour. The loss of Palmyra according to ISIS means the loss of the vision and the map for the future of its war in Syria, because there is no value in having control over Deir al-Zour and Al Raqqa in capturing the Syrian geography without Palmyra to have a linkage with Al Qalamoun and then Lebanon, or Al Qalamoun it dissociates Homs, the coast, Aleppo, and Hama from Damascus and besieging it from Al Qalamoun then Al Zabadani and Al Quneitra on one side, opposite by Al Badia, the Iraqi Jordanian borders, Homs and its countryside on the other side , so it can be said militarily that the battle of the fate of ISIS has been waged in Palmyra. No one of the military strategists can read other than that, hence the organization has accepted to put the cost for the defense of Palmyra five hundred murdered and over a thousand wounded, it is the highest number for its losses in any battle of its battles since its emergence and its control over the parts of the geography of Syria and Iraq.

All the world watched this war and knew that thousands of the Syrian soldiers and officers were its pillar accompanied with hundreds of the allies, and that the Syrian fire was the coverage for the progression with a qualitative professional support of accurate strikes by the Russian air force, the actual duration for the battle after the completion of the processes of accomplishing in ten similar was ten days, it is more than a recorded time compared with the accomplished goal, despite missing seventy five martyrs of the Syrian army, three martyrs of Hezbollah and the martyrdom of one Russian observing officer, all of them have presented priceless sacrifices, but unfortunately the military measurement is harsh in the wars, it shows that comparing with the goal, the losses of ISIS, and the difference between the position of the attacker and the defender, it was expected that the cost of the victory in Palmyra is thousand martyrs at least, and the human cost as the size of the limited destruction and the recorded time is considered a miracle in the standards of wars.

The image which the strategist analysts looked through is that ISIS has waged the battle of its existence accompanied with what is higher than what can be available for it in any other battle to win, it has comfortable geographical domain for its back bases and the built fortifications in addition to those offered by the desert and the entangled complicated hills which give a bonus for the defenders, in addition to the size of the human force which is beyond the consideration of the fighting’s  geography, furthermore all the effective weapons, equipments and the ammunition as well as morale, will,  determination are available for achieving the victory, all these reasons will not be in any other battle in the same ratio, In return the Syrian army has waged its battle accompanied with its allies and its supply lines, it has support and a distinguished qualitative professional air coverage, thus the two parties met in confronting the position of each one of them which is in its best condition, where through the circumstances of the confrontation, the fate of the future of each one will be drawn and no better choices will be available if one has lost these conditions, just for that the wills of heroism till the victory were confronted at the two banks of the war, furthermore the blood, the sacrifices, and the determinations have been resolved who is the winner in this confrontation and what is coming after. They show as well that the air bombardment which was twenty years ago by the coalition aircraft against ISIS sites did not achieve any victory, while the air bombardment which serves troops that are progressing and having ability, eligibility, will, and ammunition to achieve the victory became a real partner in its accomplishment.

In the war of Palmyra, the President Al-Assad, the Syrian army and the allies of Syria say that the war on terrorism has one way, it is Palmyra way, it is not that way that was tested, its limitation has been proved and its inability could not be repeated on one hand and its high cost on the other hand as the battle of Ain Al Arab Kobani or its failure has been proven as the battles of the Democratic Forces of Syria in achieving the crossing of Al Tanf, or the collapse that has been built before the entering the war as has happened with those who were trained by Washington and surrendered in the countryside of Aleppo before they shoot their first shot and after they had cost the American treasury millions of dollars, just for the battle of Palmyra has put the world, the region’s countries, and many forces before decisive options their basis is that victory on ISIS is possible but it has its own roadmap that enhances the chances of the political solution in Syria, and who does not want to join the track which Palmyra has drawn, has to announce clearly his standing on the bank of ISIS and terrorism.

After Palmyra the name of the President Al-Assad and the Syrian army will be mentioned in the West media and by the Western diplomats, as well as at the corridors of the major international negotiations in new language, and after Palmyra the equation which will be applied on the groups of the opposition especially “that belongs to the group of Riad” internationally will be we want your Palmyra not your murmurs.

Whenever achieved more victories the political solutions will become closer, and whenever the victory on ISIS approaches, ISIS will hit more in the West, and whenever the danger of terrorism aggravates the ratio of understanding increases there more. In a day not so far the name of the President Al-Assad will be mentioned in an important Western newspaper in articles that compare him with the General Charles De Gaulle and his role in the Second World War in achieving the victory on the Nazism, while the groups of the “Armed opposition” and the advocates of the revolution will be mentioned as the group of Vichy.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,