Before the end of the year: From Yemen to Syria …… to Lebanon
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The end of this year is full of merits, and the next year for America is the year of elections and the arrangement of the withdrawals from Afghanistan to the rest of the inflamed issues, the revenues of the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program will start to flow on Iran in the earlier of this year too. An American has said; if there was an engagement on which we could bet regarding the modification of the balances of the negotiation, then we would have waited for it and we would not have signed the understanding, Moreover Minsk Understanding which the last stage of its application will end in Ukraine this year is a good prove, what is left is the Middle East where, the player allies have granted Washington opportunities that are distributed between “fatting the calves”, and “let them hit their heads against the wall”, the Turkish calve has been fatted electorally and was left hitting its head against the Russian wall and accepting the European bribe, thus the bets on a secure zone and the militants that control over a part of the Syrian geography have failed, Furthermore, the raging Saudi bull was left hitting its head against the Yemeni wall. These are the Saudi borders, they are bleeding and affected.
The first slap is when the Russians have presented a proposal to the French despite the silence which leaves a place for virtual fake Lebanese championships by inventing the nomination of who has presented the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh to the presidential settlement. The Russian proposal did not include a nomination but a title, there is no presidency in Lebanon far from the supportive line of Syria and the resistance, and there is no presidency for the non –leaders, this was the agreement between Al Sayyed Al Khamenei and the President Vladimir Putin. So search and move if you want a role for Lebanon, consult with your allies and talk to Iran and Hezbollah, therefore the French people did and the Americans know all the details, in other words the regional and the international identity of Lebanon which is represented by the presidency has been resolved, but what is left are the Lebanese affairs which means either the General Michael Aoun or the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh, the admission of them is a full victory to the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah and their allies.
The Lebanese issue has encouraged in accelerating the regional issue, the speech of the US Secretary of State John Kerry and the French Minister of Foreign Affairs Laurent Fabius about the President Al-Assad despite the fact that the details are not important but in essence, it is a slap to Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the eve of the gathering of the opposition in Riyadh to put a negotiating ceiling, Today it is doomed within an American-French title, one government under the leadership of Al-Assad so as Lebanon, Syria surely will be, because the origin of the Lebanese proposal is still Syrian.
Suddenly the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Yemen has changed, then Abdul malek Al- Makhlafi the head of the negotiated delegation who came from a background that is capable of bridging the gaps has assigned with the UN Envoy a date in the mid of this month to start the negotiation about the political solution in Genève, which everyone ensure that it has matured enough, this date will be followed after two days with a meeting dedicated to Syria in New York for the Ministers of the Foreign Affairs who have participated in Vienna, after the main obstacle has been removed, which the West and its allies have said that it remained suspended in Vienna, it is the position toward the role of the Syrian President, thus everyone will move to classify the terrorism according to the Russian recipe accompanied with the appointment of the Syrian – Syrian dialogue for a government that supports the army and under the leadership of the President to wage the war on terrorism within the international equations which require lifting the sanction on Syria, the openness to the world, and fortifying it to accelerate the victory, because after Paris ISIS has become at Washington gates.
The session of 16th of this month may not be the session of electing a President for the Republic in Lebanon as long as the Lebanese affairs have not matured yet, and as long as the meeting for Syria will be on the 18th of this month, so may be the session of 23rd of this month can lead to a President for example, because the time is short and the delayed issue is neither internationally nor regionally. The President must belong to the track of Syria and the resistance and that is enough, moreover he must be restricted into two options either Aoun or Franjieh, and the option regarding the Lebanese matters is easy according to the 8th of March team by arranging the whole package, the governmental accompanied offers, the identity of the commander of the army and other issues, but in the opposite bank there is a true conflict between the Muslim component and the Christina one according to the team of 14th of March, the Muslim component which is represented by the alliance of the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri and the Deputy Walid Jumblatt is interested in excluding the difficult Christian candidate and whose candidacy has the challenge aspect as a result of many sectarian and interested considerations, he is Aoun, While the Christian component which is represented by the bilateral the Lebanon forces and the phalanges and which is interested in its popular Christian interests and how to exclude Franjieh from the leadership which is culminated by the support of Aoun, to the extent of saying, may the nomination of Aoun by us and his success will make us closer to his audience than Franjieh, but their problem is if they did that and dared to challenge Al-Hariri then Franjieh will precede them and blesses the nomination of Aoun, and if they did not do that and obey Al-Hariri then Aoun will precede them and blesses the nomination of Franjieh.
Saudi Arabia and those who stood with it are between fattening the calves and hitting their heads against the wall.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,