From Aleppo to Daraa …and soon in Idlib
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The administration of the US President Donald Trump can claim its favor in postponing the victory of the Syrian army and its allies in Aleppo, and its success in freezing the effects of Astana path for six months making it a confused framework that is subject to experience and test, waiting for what will happen as the delusions of the armed groups of taking the lead , this would not happen except for the confusion made by the arrogance of the US President and his fiery messages which their content is tactic rather than a strategic choice, so the US answer for what will be after the collapse of ISIS and the hypothesis of the exposure of the Kurdish forces to attack by the Syrian army and will the US troops defend them, is surely it will not.
All of those who were killed and wounded and all the devastation that occurred during the period after the battles of Aleppo were the outcome of the illusions drawn by the administration of the President Donald Trump. These illusions drove even the Turks who experienced their defeat in Aleppo to assume that a new era is beginning, and that it is possible to return to the bets of the military choice in Syria till all the tests of force have shown their ineffectiveness , and it was proven that the equation which led to the victory of Aleppo is the stable strategic equation, and that the attempt to affect it politically and militarily is just tactic actions wanted by the American from the stupid who were victims of the illusion of his force, as was proven by Trump’s summits in Riyadh and the hundreds billion dollars.
The battles of Daraa and the words of the French President Emanuel Macron have occurred as harmful slaps against the armed groups which were victims of illusion, in order to return them back to their certainty that nothing has changed and will not change. The stubbornness and the persistence will not produce but just raising the costs that can be recognized with fewer losses. It is known that the deterrence balance after a series of battles will be intensified. So there is no need for the war to pass through all its stages in order to reach to final results. The aim of the US plan was a temporary disruption of the effectiveness of the outcome of the battles of Aleppo in order to return the armed groups and their regional sponsors to the same setbacks with double costs, in order to be certain that nothing has changed, so the illusion of time will be deadly bleed on them and gains for America in Gulf rather than Syria.
Today Daraa is following Aleppo; it seems that there is a settlement that is similar to the settlement which led to the end the war of Aleppo. From Daraa to Aleppo, in the north and south of Syria and the north and the south of the Syrian war, from these two gateways the war passed to Syria and from them the war is getting out of Syria., the Syrian flag is raised over the Jordanian borders and then the Turkish ones announcing the end of the ugliest and the most dangerous episodes of this war. After Daraa, Idlib will be, and it will be soon followed by Deir Al-Zour. It an equation resolved between two allies, an ally that is getting more cohesive and an ally that is getting more fragmented, an ally that is getting more confident, and an ally that is getting more skeptical and frustrated, an ally that is planting victories and an ally that is reaping defeats. Damascus is getting out of the war, and celebrates the Jerusalem Day which it sees that is so close, while the ambitions of Riyadh are getting reduced, from waiting the day of the fall of Damascus to the fall of Bin Nayef and Qatar.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,