Jordan is positioning …. to precede Egypt !

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Contrary to all the escalated indicators of the administration of the US President Donald Trump, it seems that the secret diplomacy is working effectively. After two days of the return of the Jordanian King from Washington, Jordan was targeting ISIS in the Syrian-Jordanian borders which are close to the Occupied Palestine near Al Yarmouk and Al Shajara, then it applied for an urgent join to Astana path that is sponsored by Moscow, Tehran and Ankara to cease-fire, it participated in the coordinated meeting proposing the inclusion of the armed groups in the Southern of Syria to the cease-fire and the war on ISIS and Al Nusra. These groups are funded by Saudi Arabia and directed by the MOC the US military operations room in Amman.

It cannot be imagined the swift Jordanian transformations in conjunction with the visit of the Jordanian King to Washington without the availability of three conditions; first, US demand or blessing or at least a support of this transformation, second, having Saudi encouragement or at least an acceptance, third, a green Israeli light especially the Jordanian air force for raids that have been implemented in sensitive accurate sites or at least not objecting that. The three conditions have one center necessarily, the US decision to support Astana path till the path of Geneva becomes ready and the effective  US participation in the war and the political track after the summit of the Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

The current information says that Saudi Arabia and Turkey have cooperated to drive Jordan to do that transformation and positioning to hinder what is prepared by Washington and Moscow to grant Egypt the Arab seat in Astana Path. Riyadh which stood positively encouraging the path of the settlement in Lebanon was capable despite the scream of its leaders against the Iranian influence through their announced war on Hezbollah of discovering an indirect way through which it can encourage the ally that took the initiative, but they do not bear its responsibility however they bless its success and receive the congrats in case of its success. It seems that Jordan was selected, because it does not have the ability to implement raids without big international regional cover, it does not have the ability to bring the armed groups to Astana Path and the war on ISIS and Al Nusra without such a cover or even more, and because its gains from ensuring its security of this positioning are great in addition to its moral revenues. But most importantly are the implicit signs of the cooperation and the normalization of the governmental Syrian-Jordanian relations which Saudi Arabia cannot do directly at least right now.

Egypt was slow in moving toward Astana Path and the preparation to fill the gaps in the mechanisms of ceasing-fire, knowing that it is more qualified and acceptable; it is a source of relief for all the participants and the involved. Moreover, it symbolizes the Arab cover which is needed by Astana Path. Although the Jordanian step and its implications are important, but the time is not too late for Egypt to take a step that will lead to major transformations in the balances, and will grant the path toward the political solution and the war on terrorism a lot of momentum. Jordan becomes one of the neighboring countries which joined the path as Lebanon and Iraq, while Egypt forms the Arab partner which makes a positive balance with Turkey and Iran.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,