Saudi Arabia and Turkey ….. and the last battles

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Despite the Russian success in imposing the exclusion of Al Nusra Front from the armistice’s provisions according to the understanding which combined Moscow and Washington, and which has been translated by a resolution from the Security Council by approving the provisions of the armistice, it was clear that the form of the armistice according to the agreed Russia perspective by Iran and Syria was a movable process not a procedural achievement that was subject to the issuance of a text. The armistice was an exit of the failure in reaching to an understanding on the criteria of classifying the terrorist organizations, and isolating them from the political process towards forming a delegation for the opposition that excludes the groups which are agreed on their classifying as terrorists, but includes a broader representation for those who believe in the political path on the basis of the priority of the war on terrorism. The conflict was revolving about the path of the terrorism’s list regarding Al Nusra Front with each of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, along with two groups that belong successively to Riyadh and Ankara; the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham. Moscow, Damascus, and Tehran believe in the impossibility of integration them in the political process. The conflict in the path of the opposition delegation was focusing on the status of each one of these two groups in the negotiations on one hand, and the ability of the expansion of the delegation to represent the committees of the Kurdish protection and some of the factions which were excluded of the group of Riyadh.

The formula of the armistice aimed to put an optional criterion on classifying the armed groups and resolving indirectly the list of terrorism, this criterion is to keep away  of Al Nusra Front and to accept its classification as terrorism as a condition to join the political process, and to take advantage of the armistices’ provisions, and thus to deal with the armistice as a conflict’s theatre not as a ready formula for implementation, on this theatre the bilateral of Riyadh and Ankara in addition to Israel and under the title of the armistice provisions will try to replace the political improving of  the image of Al Nusra Front and showing it as a partner in the political process by integrating it under the banner of the group of Riyadh in the armistice’ provisions,  and making use of the armistice’ revenues and its features to tempt Al Nusra to accept to be affiliated under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, and to benefit from the importance of Al Nusra to enlarge the size of the negotiating Riyadh group on one hand, moreover to stabilize the presence of the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham within the armistice’s provisions and the political process as two main partners on the other hand, in addition to prevent any attempt of affecting the exclusiveness of representing the opposition by the group of Riyadh.

In contrast,  the Russian Syrian Iranian alliance will try to employ the armistice and its provisions to mobilize and crowd sufficient capacities for ongoing resolving of accurate and articulated sites of ISIS and Al Nusra which are excluded of the armistice’s provisions, on the basis that this rolling resolving will reveal who supports the armed groups which are affiliated to Saudi Arabia and Turkey and make them weak, so forcibly they will either involve in the political process or they will accept the fate of Al Nusra, moreover this resolving will try either to activate the presence of the opposition groups which are outside the group of Riyadh towards the articulated moment in which the armistice will collapse, because of the exit of the bilateral the Turkish and the Saudi or to impose a permanent maintaining of the armistice with every variable in accordance with  the behavior of the opposed parties.

As an outcome of any objective political and military assessment, the Russian Syrian Iranian axis has surpassed its opponents in the first round of the truce duel, it has succeeded militarily in waging the battle of Palmyra and to add a geostrategic accomplishment in the war on ISIS, as it succeeded in proving the impossibility of ignoring the Kurdish component of the negotiations. In contrast, the Turkish Saudi alliance has succeeded in manipulating with time to hide its adherence to Al Nusra through protecting it under the banner of the Free Army in Aleppo and its countryside, and protecting the role of each the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham in the armistice and in the negotiation process. The decisive moment has come after the common Turkish Saudi bet had fallen with Al Nusra on the ability of ISIS to extend the war of Palmyra and to turn it into an attrition war against the Syrian army and its allies. Now it is the moment of truth, the Syrian army and its allies will proceed to Idlib where there is no place for deception in the identity of Al Nusra’s dominance and raising the flag of the Free Army. This means the falling of Al Nusra, or otherwise Al Nusra has to get rid of the mask of the Free Army and to be encountered in Aleppo and its countryside in order to protect its last most important stronghold in Idlib, this was what happened.

The second round of the battles of the process of the armistice is concentrating on the fate of Al Nusra Front, after Palmyra has put everything at stake, just for that the delegation of the group of Riyadh is withdrawing from the negotiations to link the continuation of the talks with guarantees to protect Al Nusra, it called it the moderate opposition, that is why the fronts of the countryside of Damascus where the Army of Islam has the decisive word are integrating with the fronts of Aleppo and their countryside where Al Nusra has the most importance presence followed by Ahrar Al Sham. Behind all of that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are standing and having talks about the priority of confirming the truce, it means to confirm the protection of Al Nusra sites, since it is a moderate opposition that raises the flag of the Free Army, these are some of the reasons of the Israeli escalation about Golan where Al Nusra is the source of Israel’s security as Netanyahu said. the outcome of this equation with all its implications is that Russia, Syria, and Iran win the second round and therefore the battle of Al Nusra becomes the third round of the rounds of the truce process, the second round becomes in between, so the one who withdraws of the negotiations and takes the fighting to new fronts will lose the points according to the rules of the armistice therefore the loss was in favor of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in preparation for the next meeting of the countries in Vienna path which launched in Munich the provisions of the armistice and it will evaluate them in New York at the end of this month.

The UN Envoy will oblige to score the loss’ points on the Saudi Turkish team represented by  the group of Riyadh, he says that its withdrawal was a political show and that the discussions will continue without it, he says as well that the violation of the armistice in the countryside of Damascus is representing a dangerous violation of the commitments of the parties and their position in the political process, everyone is preparing to go to the third round where the Turkish and the Saudi bilateral hastens to make it in the field through agitating all the fronts where Al Nusra is merging with the rest of the armed groups in anticipation of New Work Meeting which the Russians try to make it before the decisive battle in Aleppo and its countryside, in an effort to restrict the fight with Al Nusra Front and to provide a mechanism that sorts its sites from others including the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham, but with its insistence to classify them as terrorism, but alienating them from the war on Al Nusra as what has happened in the battle of Palmyra by restricting the fight with ISIS and accumulating the profits’ balances sequentially.

The battle of Al Nusra is inevitable before New York Meeting or after it, the attempts of Riyadh and Ankara will not succeed in changing the equation, by modifying the armistice to include Al Nusra within its provisions, thus the fight will be absurd to affect the political path of New York, and the escalation which is doomed with the military inability despite the direct Turkish intervention will be a round of killing and destroying that will continue till the process of resolving starts in Aleppo and its countryside as it happened in Palmyra. It is an inevitable path for the armistice and an actual translation of its content, but the difference which will be resolved by days is “will the battle of Al Nusra turn to be the battle of the group of Riyadh, the Army of Islam, and Ahrar Al Sham?” Thus they will get out of the armistice and the political process by the force of their integration with Al Nusra. Therefore the scene will be different totally early next June with the Fourth Geneva. Half of the getting out will be voluntarily after the recognition that there is no opportunity for the group of Riyadh in the political process that is not supported by the field which is owned by Al Nusra and which its end will be in the ballot boxes where the group of Riyadh cannot dare to test them even under UN auspices and the best conditions of the equal competition, because it knows more than others its result and the size of its representation when it is the time for the moment of truth, while the other half will be compulsorily, on the basis of then embarrassment then getting out, or as the Russian way of playing chess the shift of the Horse, keeping the Castle then Checkmate!.

The battle of Al Nusra is the last battles of Turkey and Riyadh …. That is why the talks of Yemen are at the state of pending.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,