Saudi Arabia between the two north of Syria and the north of Lebanon, Alloush, and Rifi

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The events accelerate in the intersected issues in the region, and the entitlements are presented  as opportunities to articulate them, this is what is shown by the Saudi interaction with the Lebanese and the Syrian scenes, and its Yemeni behavior towards the settlement, while its positions differ on the Syrian and the Lebanese backgrounds according to the requirements of keeping the necessary papers to reserve a negotiating seat, or getting rid of the papers which their expiry has ended, while the UN backgrounds announce of the developing formula for forming a unified neutral military council between the two Yemeni teams that takes over the responsibility of reuniting the army through units that are responsible of the cities starting from Sanaa and Aden, it is responsible for their security and the weapon as an applied formula of the UN resolution and a starting point of the political settlement, as well as forming a government in preparation for new constitution and presidential and parliamentary elections, the Syrian scene presents the scene of the resignation of the representative of the Army of Islam, who is called the Chief Negotiatorof the opposition in Geneva, as the Lebanese scene presents a dramatic end of the leadership of the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri in the north elections, the popular and the political castle of his leadership and the emergence of the Minister Ashraf Rifi as a strong inheritor of the leadership of Tripoli where he leads the officials of the fighting axes and the symbols of extremism.

In the northern of Syria the major problem of the future of the political settlement in Syria and the future of the war on terrorism are presented according to the bilateral of the disengagement with Al-Nusra Front as a condition for partnership for any armed group in the truce’s provisions and the political process on one hand, and the expansion of the negotiating delegation in order to include the Kurds and the factions of the opposition which are not represented on the other hand. The current issue which is presented by the title is related to the Army of Islam on the Saudi basis, while what is required is clear, the exit of this faction which is supported by Saudi Arabia from the Al-Nusra finally and it exit of the negotiating delegation to facilitate the transition to the direct negotiation according to the conditions of the Syrian country, and to ensure the opportunity of reforming the negotiating team. It is not possible to separate between the battles of Al-Nusra front and the Army of Islam in Al Ghouta on one hand nor between the resignations of Mohammed Alloush the political responsible of the Army of Islam from the position of the Chief Negotiator of the opposition on the other hand, nor between the visit of the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Adel Al Jubeir to Moscow, and between the announcement of the group of Riyadh the insistence on the starting of the dialogue with the opposition groups to enlarge the negotiating team, this makes the Saudi movement to protect the negotiating seat in Syria a group of steps to position under the ceiling of the American Russian understanding despite the exaggerated scream of the Saudi position toward the future of the Syrian presidency, but this is acceptable as long as it does practically its required obligations in the contexts of the political process and its resuming in new conditions as well as the war on terrorism and entering in a new phase.

In the northern of Syria, Saudi Arabia retracted of the escalations role in front of the Russian thrusts, it avoids the confrontation as much as it can to adapt even malignantly the assumptions  of the postponement and the bet on the war of attrition in which Al Nusra Front succeeds in its imposing with a Turkish support across the borders, while it seems that the situation of Al Nusra and Ahrar Al Sham and who is accompanied them is getting worse with the expansion of ISIS and its military moving away toward the countryside of Aleppo escaping from great losses as a result of the American bombing in Al Raqqa within the process of keeping up with the war of the Democratic Forces of Syria, which Washington supposed that it will avoid them the direct cooperation with the Syrian country and its army in the war on ISIS. Therefore ISIS’s moving away towards the West escaping from the American fire facilitates the mission of the Syrian army and the allies in fighting Al Nusra and who accompanied it, after they had lost their last supply lines across the Turkish borders, thus the Saudis will observe the war of North without concern about the future of their presence in the political equation, while in Lebanon they get rid of the consuming paper which became useless which is represented by the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri, where the cost of keeping this paper became higher than its returns, after it was proven  his inability to meet the requirements of the confrontation and the escalation against Hezbollah, it is the last remaining title of the Saudi wars which have the American coverage, so Saudi Arabia has put its interest and its confidence in the Minister Ashraf Rifi as a temporary alternative in the North to organize and to arrange its internal affairs, Rifi is reliable of his hostility toward Hezbollah, moreover he is able to communicate with the requirements of the North,  according to the equation that the future of Lebanon and Syria is coherent not due to the presence of Hezbollah in their fronts and its victories against the terrorism through its stability and the balance of its deterrence against Israel but according to the requirements of the Israeli security which the Americans see on the basis of applying the example of the northern of Syria in the northern of Lebanon will alone prevent the applying of the example of the southern of Lebanon in the southern of Syria, because if Hezbollah was not confused in the Lebanese depth, then Israel will be confused in the south of Syria.

What has happened in the northern of Lebanon practically ends the legend of Al Hariri in its main stronghold and puts it in front of possibilities of fading away or the return to the political reality  and the coping with the forces which led by Hezbollah to make a presidential and parliamentary equation that protects the remaining of the strength of Al-Hariri by the force of alliances, this requires Al –Hariri exit from the Saudi auspices that does not seem consistent with the behavior and the personality of Al-Hariri , while the fragmentation of the strength of Al –Hariri does not concern Hezbollah especially that the disturbing demarcations of the threat of strife do not affect the North where the extremism wins at the expense of the strength of Al-Hariri which granted the extremism through the hostile speech against the resistance the ability to possess his followers and the power to affect them, while the importance of the voter which the alliance of the president Najib Mikati, Al-Hariri, the ministers Mohammed Al-Safadi and Faisal Karami ignored and  which is represented by the Democratic Arab Party has become the insurance policy to win in the parliamentary elections  after this ignorance led to the loss of the municipalities, as well as the presidential election of the Minister Suleiman Franjieh by Al-Hariri has required a guarantor of Al-Hariri after he lost his northern influence, ant it was proven that Franjieh has more influence electorally than Al-Hariri who has behaved till the municipal elections as the first leader of Lebanon by the force of his parliamentary block, so now he has to devote his presidency and the election law through which it grants Hezbollah and its allies gains that secure the electoral future of Al-Hariri.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,