The end of the Saudi era in Lebanon…. What about Egypt?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The turning point which the Saudi relationships entered in Lebanon is representing a dangerous geopolitical shift in drawing the Lebanese internal equations whatever was the dealing with it by many as a crisis that is worked on its solving, or as a temporal summer cloud that is caused by a state of anger or a misunderstanding, which some animators, pleasantries and the public relations campaigns may be useful in its ending and returning it back to the normal state as the Prime Minister Tammam Salam said,  or as the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri bets on showing a popular political solidarity campaign that satisfies the arrogance of  Riyadh’s rulers through the Lebanese appeals and soliciting, thus they will return to the reconciliation  and acceptance as the situation was before.

It is clear that the sequent Saudi decisions against Lebanon are moving through a progressive plan, including the refusal of receiving the Prime Minister and his accompanying delegation who have asked for a date with the Saudi leadership. So it is clear that the plan wants to proceed in a parallel through the political and moral humiliation on the party that belongs to Saudi Arabia, and the collective punishment on the Lebanese people, towards saying that Lebanon has to be subordinate and submissive otherwise it will not enter the Saudi paradise.

This happens at the time of scarcity and the austerity in Saudi Arabia, which confronts a real bankruptcy danger; many people do not believe that the warnings of the international fund are serious and at stake, and that the stopping of the margins of the political luxury from the tables of the royal spending is at the top of these warnings which must be taken into consideration, in addition to nationalize the business of the Saudis by decreasing the depending on the expensive labor. Lebanon is included in the two receipts; Saudi Arabia did not succeed in employing what it spent on its Lebanese groups in making it a starting independent point of its account with Turkey in order to intervene in Syria, despite the temptation of the geography and the demography, it did not succeed in presenting its credentials to the Americans and the Israelis in the most important battle against which Hezbollah represents an additive value in the region’s wars, since it is the capable team of scaling this party, it did not succeed in controlling the Lebanese political stability by passing a presidential deal which Washington has pledged of it, as a regional responsible that considers Lebanon of its dominance areas, despite its acceptance of the ally of the Syrian President and Hezbollah as a consensus presidential candidate, who is the Deputy Suleiman Franjieh.

The failure, then the failure, then the failure is what Saudi Arabia is gaining of what it describes as its dear investment in Lebanon, so it decided to dispense the services of its Lebanese employees, to dismiss them from the service and to put new book of terms for employment which is dedicated neither to palaces residents nor to the titular, today it wants leaders from the streets that are able to gather militants, arouse disorders  in order to turn it from an authority that is not followed into an opposition that disturbs, confuses, and clashes, its coverage is stirring a violent storm against Hezbollah through group of harsh painful procedures on the Lebanese, to the extent of bankruptcy in order to say that “O, Lebanese this is what you earned of the presence of Hezbollah” our subject is not how Lebanon, the Lebanese and Hezbollah will confront this challenge, but the consequences of this challenge will impose a systematic change in the Saudi policy which has the biggest share in making Lebanese leaders since Al-Taif Agreement at least with its money and the exclusiveness of its managing with the Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri and then the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri. It wants to say today depend on yourselves, furthermore your partnerships do not mean us, let these partnerships go bankrupt, even Solidere will not be safe of the punishment by buying the stocks and the real estate which are owned by the Gulf people, there will be neither municipal elections funding nor parliamentary elections funding, so depend on yourselves, you who were depending on us, we did not get but the failure because of you.

New Lebanon with new Saudi policy and political movement that changes radically the forming of a crucial Lebanese sect in the life of Lebanon, it played and now it is playing a pivotal  role in drawing the policies and the balances in it, in which the extremism will harvest some of its segments with this change, but the weakness of the leaders which depend on the Saudi money will not be in favor of the extremism alone, because a degree of a balance among some of the important leaderships will prevail again, and the parliamentary elections will show that, Moreover the Saudi exit to fight Lebanon will not lead to a victory, because Washington which wants from Saudi Arabia to prove its ability to restrict Hezbollah, it wants at the same time to ensure the stability, and to prevent the escalation to reach to an explosion moment that makes the whole country under the control of Hezbollah and its allies, so it is not possible to ask the thing and its opposite from Saudi Arabia , while Egypt the owner of the traditional role which it has inherited from Saudi Arabia in the era after Gamal Abdul Nasser is preparing itself with a Russian American support for a regional role that starts from the gate of the war on ISIS in Libya , and an important expected role in the Syrian settlement, so will the Egyptians move to ensure the stability in Lebanon with a Russian American coverage, while the Americans will find the range for employing the surplus money of the Iranians in Lebanon for an economic protection of the political military and security role of Hezbollah. Thus the regional equation of Lebanon is Egyptian and Russian, so the Lebanese presidential issue will move between Cairo and Tehran passing by Damascus.

Translate by Lina Shehadeh,