The solution of Yemen is serious and in Ramadan

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There are many indicators that allow to conclude that the ceilings of the Yemeni escalation do not reduce, which allow saying that the participation of the two teams in the negotiation constitutes a kind of reluctant acceptance, the alternation is reflected by the repetitive announcements of the agreements of ceasing-fire that are not proven or implemented, and the repetitive withdrawals from the negotiations in protest on the mutual accusations of non-seriousness. In addition that the fighting fronts witness since the starting of the negotiation in Kuwait harsh developments and a violence that sometimes surpasses what was before the negotiation, furthermore, the political ceilings of the two teams are still strict and it is difficult to meet, the demand of Al Houthis is an understanding on a unified government that includes all the terms of the settlement, while the group of Mansour Hadi refuses that matter because they consider it a legitimacy of what they called the coup, they demand starting giving the cities and the weapons to the army which they called “ legitimacy” which means their army, where Al Houthis describe that as a call for surrender.

In exchange of all of that, it is easy to assert that the two teams of conflict do not have a road map for the phase after the failure of the negotiation and the return to the military confrontation, the negative balance of the forces has reached its extent in proving the inability of the military resolving for each one of them,  it is an impossible resolving for Al Houthis and their allies because of the aerial and ground Saudi intervention, as it is impossible resolving as well for the Saudis after their dreams and hopes have been broken after a year of the steadfastness of the Yemenis and their champignons, however the deadlock of the military choice makes the negotiation an inevitable option to get out of the war of attrition no matter how long the negotiations will last and gets complicated, at the same time the two teams seem to be aware of this fact, because when each one of them leaves the negotiation protesting, it insists on remaining in Kuwait and launching the positions which indicate to its sticking to the negotiating option asking for the interventions of the mediators to return the negotiations back to their acceptable course.

The consequences of the war of attrition affect the ability of the two teams to withstand within the limited financial resources, the Yemeni team which is supported by Saudi Arabia knows that the Saudi Gulf financial support has been reduced to less than a half, while the Houthis team and its allies know that the resources of the Yemeni treasury in Sanaa has depleted and it is no longer sufficient for more steadfastness unless there is a political solution, the consequences of the war of attrition has one beneficiary, it is Al-Qaeda organization in its original copy and its revised version ISIS,  which gets rooted and expanded in the war, through its expansion it constitutes a bridge of connection with Somalia on one hand and the opposite banks of the Red Sea on the other hand,  and Pakistan across the Pacific Ocean also, this makes the strategic dimension of this expansion and this rootedness a source of concern and attention for the West especially the United States which moved from the position  of the public supporter of the Saudi war into a source of supporting the negotiations, this was what the US President Barack Obama expressed to the Price of Kuwait at the presence of the Saudi King through his call for sponsoring the negotiations, but later he moved to the serious pressure to accelerate reaching to the happy ends of the negotiations.

The arrival of the official Spokesman of the Revolutionary Committees to Riyadh was a few days before the issuance of the report of the Secretary-General of the United Nations which enlisted  the coalition which is led by Saudi Arabia on the black list, this required Saudi Gulf campaign till the classification was removed, it is know that the enlisting and the withdrawal were accomplished by American decision, the cost was Saudi pledge of accelerating accomplishing the negotiation, and that the real negotiation was going on in Riyadh as what has happened before the starting of the negotiation in Kuwait, but during few hours it was announced an emergence of signs of a comprehensive agreement in Kuwait that includes forming a neutral military commission which was agreed upon, it will take over the security and the weapons as a preparation for forming a national Yemeni unified army that will be followed by a unified government, which will be the reference which will lead the political process with constitutional modifications that will end with parliamentary and presidential elections.

The expectation may ascend and descend about the solution in Yemen, but it is clear that there is an expected date since the starting of the negotiations of Kuwait; it is the end of Ramadan as a date for reaching to a solution which must be carefully noticed.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,