The Syrian challenges to Washington in Munich

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The meeting of Munich will be held for the participated countries in Vienna’s path which the admission of the new facts of Syria has started with it, the most important of them is the dismissing of making the future of the Syrian presidency a title and an entry of the political solution in Syria. The meeting of Munich has a challenge to save the meetings of Geneva between the Syrian government and the opposition delegation from reaching the impasse, amid a language of high limits by the allies of Washington on one hand, and a field progress by the Syrian army and its allies on the other hand, in addition to the distant visions for the conditions of starting the direct negotiation.

Washington is facing a Turkish Saudi language that talks about intentions and desires of the ground military intervention which expressed themselves publicly, but they are conditioned with the American coverage, which the experience of bringing the American fleets two years ago proved that it was incapable and that its consequences were beyond the American ability, so how it will take the risk after the Russian presence has become a decisive factor in the balances, Washington has admitted of the Russian presence’s consequences in the amendments which it accepted through Vienna’s path regarding the vision of the rules and the conditions of the political solution, in return Washington knows that what the Turkish and the Saudi want is not the war on ISIS, it calls them and puts a pressure on them to seize a negotiated part of the Syrian geography in anticipation of more Syrian military achievements. Ankara and Riyadh try to avoid their turning as capitals to battlefields for the war with ISIS which seems inevitable if they involve in a ground war against ISIS, so the limit of their endeavor is the scream for the ground intervention in order to get the American approval to supply the armed groups which affiliated to them with networks of anti-craft missiles which Washington prohibits giving to them.

Washington is aware that tampering with the Russian air weapons by the American missiles means the involvement of Washington in repeating the experience of the attrition of Russia which occurred three decades ago in Afghanistan, and that Moscow will consider that, as it informed clearly Washington that it is an announcement of  a war that causes the falling of all the understandings and all the types of cooperation in Syria and elsewhere, this means before anything else; the turning of Syria into an arena for a major international regional war, if Washington wanted it, then it would wage the war with its fleets preceding the Russian positioning in Syria, and it has not involved in signing the nuclear understanding with Iran, how if the administration of the US President Barack Obama has entered the decisive electoral year, where its allies are betting of spending time with it while they presented the support for the Republican opponent of the ruling party today, while the Democrats know that the understanding with Russia and Iran on common scenarios in the war on terrorism, which its entry is the successful political process in Syria is the secured way to the White House.

Washington is aware that disrupting the understandings which were settled according to Vienna’s path has been occurred by its allies, the Meeting of New York which the US Secretary of State John Kerry has called for at the end of the year was exposed to the failure because of the Saudi piracy on seizing exclusively the formation of the opposition delegation to Geneva and inserting terrorist groups that affiliated to it and to Turkey in composing the Riyadh’s conference for the opposition. Washington is aware as well that the visit of Kerry to Moscow which has saved the Meeting of New York and led to the understanding regarding the content of the US resolution, has included a consensus on charging the UN Envoy Steffan  De Mistura of the two tasks; classifying the terrorist organization and forming the opposition delegation according to what was stated in the UN resolution, this did not happen, so this disrupting is still an impediment in front of Geneva discussions and ceasing-fire, these two merits are depending on identifying the terrorist groups to exclude them from the political process and ceasing-fire..

Washington is aware that the military track which the Syrian field is witnessing will not change, but its acceleration will increase and will be wider, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov said about three possibilities that are waiting for Syria, these possibilities are between just and fair launching of the political process, the acceleration of the victories of the Syrian army and the explosion of a major international regional confrontation, this is a message to Washington on the eve of Munich Meeting, Lavrov has given Kerry the recipe of the entry once again to the political process from the gate of Munich to re-charge De Mistura for the task of classifying the terrorist organizations and forming the opposition delegation, as a prelude for the coming session in Geneva, otherwise the Syrian military progress will continue till there is no  justification to make Syria share its victory with its local, regional, and international opponents or the big explosion. As long as Washington has avoided the big explosion in less dangerous circumstances and has accepted the variables of the situation in Syria in order to avoid the mono military victory of Syria and its allies that culminate with the victory on ISIS, therefore there is no choice in front of Washington but only by restoring the process of Geneva in order to form a Syrian government that includes an opposition that is not a part of the terrorism, so this government will be a partner in the war on terrorism under the United Nations coverage with the partnership of Russia, America, and their allies, this will justify for Washington and its allies the reconciliation with the Syrian country as a prelude for an American partnership in the victory on ISIS on the eve of the American presidential elections, and what is represented by this partnership in this victory as a winning card for the Democratic Party.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,