Wednesday is a crucial day

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Whether the formations of Al-Qaeda organization have implemented the assassination of the leader of the resistance Mustafa Badr Al-Din or that Israel has implemented this process directly, the political result is the same, Al-Qaeda organization and Israel are in one regional boat accompanied with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and that the war in Syria is a fateful war which will determine the future and the presence of these four entities, because the criteria of winning and defeat  in the Middle East is depending upon one of the two equations which will result from the wars and the settlements, will the equation of Hezbollah in the Southern of Lebanon include the southern of Syria, or whether the equation of Al-Qaeda organization in the northern of Syria will include the northern of Lebanon?

Whether the timing of the assassination was related to the logistical elements and to the process elements, or whether it was a timing under the control politically, or whether it was just a coincidence for launching the first shell that has targeted a goal without intention, the occurrence of the assassination and what it represents after the issuance of American Russian understanding to renew the truce and the track of settlement in Syria, and before holding Vienna Meeting for the Foreign Ministries of the participated countries in making the settlement and those which are involved in the war in Syria at their forefront America, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran will make of this anticipated forth coming meeting an articulated event that requires the proceeding of the confrontation in Syria from a place where Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the related groups will get out of a war, in which Al Nusra front is supposed to be in the opposite bank against the Syrian army and its allies led by Hezbollah, otherwise the opportunities of the settlement which restrict the war with Al Nusra front as an official branch of Al-Qaeda organization will fall, and thus the big explosion in which Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel are involving will occur in defending on Al-Qaeda organization since it is the last army of the tripartite alliance.

What will happen on Tuesday will show whether the assassination of Badr Al-Din was a crucial episode in the war which its conditions were made carefully during the decisive month since the mid of last April, which witnessed two events that are only interpreted by the assassination itself if the great war is coming, and thus they become signs of peerless foolishness of their parties, but this in case Vienna Meeting succeeded by alienating Al-Nusra front, where Turkey and Saudi Arabia neutralize themselves and where they become satisfied with seats in settlement and truce for their groups. The two events are the withdrawal of delegation of the group of Riyadh from Geneva talks on the twentieth of the last month without any apparent reason, its title is the dangerous escalation by the Syrian army, this escalation was not seen but only by the group of Riyadh which led the field and the political escalation which is explained by the preparation for a big event as the importance of the assassination like a peremptory shot in a major war. The second event was the meeting which combined on the seventh of this month two former heads of the Saudi intelligence and the Israeli intelligence, Turki Al Faisal and the General Yaakov Amidror, it is a meeting that is happening usually for coordinating a big process between two services that assign their former heads for a disguised meeting in a form of a seminar and a workshop, where in its corridors there will be inevitable talks to estimate a phase and to plan for a phase in addition for devoting a coordination at a higher level of accuracy and confidentiality. Just to remind, the last similar meeting which was between the Israelis and the Saudis was hold between Turki Al-Faisal himself and the leader of the Future of Israel Party (Yesh Atid Party) Yair Lapidat who belonged to the Israeli Mossad at the end of September before the assassination of the leader of the resistance Samir Kuntar in less than two months, so it is normal to say that leading to a settlement from Vienna Meeting that isolates Al-Nusra front and opens the war by the coverage of the participants will mean an exceptional stupidity for the group of Riyadh and its leaders.

The success of Vienna is a full Russian success, an articulated episode towards the victory of Syria in stages and gradually, while the failure of Vienna will mean the going to a decisive war that will determine the future of the Middle East through a Saudi Turkish and Israeli bet on isolating Hezbollah and demonstrating Al Nusra, in order to extend its emirate from the northern of Syria to the northern of Lebanon, while the resistance axis has to win fully in the war of the northern of Syria in order to ensure the extension of the resistance’s equation from the southern of Lebanon to include the southern of Syria. It is clear that in case the Saudis, the Turks, and the Israelis approach the regional scene according to the equation that the resolving with Al Nusra will be in the northern of Syria, then this will mean the extension of the resistance’s equation to the southern of Syria later, while the resistance axis is aware that the complacency with the emirate of Al Nusra in the northern of Syria and accepting the manipulation in its including within the truce’s provisions will mean the extension of Al-Nusra’s equation to the northern of Lebanon, and as Russia and Iran are aware that their national security is in the field, Israel, Saudi Arabia and turkey are aware that a new existential future is coming according to all the options.

Wednesday is a crucial day.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,