What did the Russian Minister of Defense carry to Syria?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

While the images of the military scene in Syria are different from one region to another, and while the Syrian army and its allies achieve important achievements on unannounced fronts which it is not expected to achieve a rapid progress in them, as the reach of the outskirts of Tabqa military airport after an incursion of seventy kilometers in the depth of Al Raqqa, it’s the center road between Aleppo and Al Raqqa, or the progress toward Al-Sukhnah which constitutes the head of the highway from Homs to Deir Al Zour, or the daily regaining of new towns in Al Ghouta , in addition to destroying the sites, vehicles, ammunition, killing the soldiers and the leaders of ISIS, Al-Nusra and their allies. Al Nusra front and who is supporting it, succeeded in achieving military surprising achievements in the southern countryside of Aleppo, after regaining Khan Tuman it succeeded  before two days in entering to the two towns Khalsa and Zitan and now it is preparing itself for the battle of Al Hader.

Despite the accomplishments which were achieved by the Syrian army and its allies are more important in quality and quantity, and despite what they foreshadow of the ability of achieving geostrategic accomplishments in the provinces of Al Raqqa and Deir Al Zour and thus controlling the fate of ISIS , as the progress in Al Ghouta and Daraya towards having control on all the security points which surround Damascus and the international road between Homs and Damascus, and as what is going on in Daraa and its neighboring, and despite that the areas which Al Nusa has entered under the name of Al Fatih Army were not of that importance, because their importance in fortifying Idlib and delaying the battle of its entering and thus delaying the regaining of Aleppo- Damascus road by the army is more important than threatening the areas under the dominance of the Syrian army which did not enter these areas but only with the beginning of Sukhoi storm, where it remained steadfast in its sites despite the remaining of Tuman,  Khalsa, and Al Hader at the hands of Al Nusra for two years, so the success in them forms the return to the situation which was a few months ago in worst cases. While the army is progressing in the countryside of Latakia towards the remaining hills in Mount Turkmen, however despite the fact that the losses of Al Nusra front and its allies are times more than the losses of the army and its allies especially Hezbollah, but it cannot be underestimated of this transformation in the southern front of the countryside of Aleppo, because there are many expectations that show that the starting of the qualitative attack of Syria and its allies in the surroundings of Aleppo starts from the southern countryside, but what has happened was the reverse, and because the losses which afflicted the resistance forces in two consecutive days were painful, so this indicates clearly that the front was not on a date with the expected attack in crowds, readiness, and a reading of the balances of powers, contrary to what the meeting of the Russian Syrian and Iranian Ministers of Defense suggested to in Tehran before many days of  the battles.

It is certain that since the cessation of the processes in the northern front with the announcement of the truce which is led by Russia and with the cooperation of Washington that paved the way for the failed Geneva talks, and despite estimating what this armistice has contributed in proving suitable conditions for the battle of regaining Palmyra, Russia’s reading of the process of war was related to the rhythm of the negotiation with America, while Iran and Hezbollah’s reading is based on the field and what it leads to facts, but the fear and the warning of the danger of employing the negotiating time in changing the field’s equations, which the victory in them will create a dynamism that lowers the cost of the confrontation sequentially, and thus their regaining in the same conditions will cost higher, so how if the conditions have changed, since the truce gives the opportunity for changing these conditions in weapons, men, plans, and preparations, this contrast was not hidden but it emerged strongly when Al Nusra front completed its preparations, and when the group of Riyadh announced the withdrawal from Geneva, this was as the ache hour for launching a preemptive attack, that ended with its restoration of Khan Tuman. The Russians were calling for more time for the terms of dismantling the engagement between the armed groups affiliated to the opposition and Al Nusra Front, while Syria found itself closer to the logic of Hezbollah and Iran despite its adherence to the Russian considerations. There were talks and consultations that were culminated with the meeting of the ministers of Defense to put military cooperation plans. Today it is clear that the ache hour was not for announcing the war on Al Nusra but for providing the conditions of steadfastness and the effective defense in the northern of Syria, where the negotiating problem with the Americans, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey is opposed with mobilizing the capacities to achieve surprising breakthroughs in the eastern fronts to prevent the American exclusivity and who is with it from achieving a progress in these fronts.

The Russian American negotiation for waging the war of Al Nusra includes all the Syrian issue, but it is clear that the Syrian progress under the Russian support towards Deir Al Zour and Al Raqqa was to prevent the exclusivity of the America to proceed against ISIS in order to link this decisive battle against ISIS which constituted the most important paper of Washington and the administration of the President Barack Obama for the coming presidential elections with the compulsory partnership to wage it accompanied with the Syrian army and its allies , so this makes the current negotiation equation according to a bilateral American coverage of the war on Al Nusra,  with or without Saudi Arabia and Turkey opposed with the normalization with the new Syrian government that includes parties from the opposition with or without the group of Riyadh, this means that everything postponed, difficult, and articulated is now on the table.

Moscow is waiting for Washington to resolve its choices between going in the coverage for Al Nusra front in exchange of the normalization with a government under the Syrian Presidency, so if Washington resolved its matter positively then Moscow would achieve an accomplishment that deserves this waiting, and if it did resolve its matter, then Moscow has to decide with the allies the option of the resolving with the Al Nusra or with ISIS or with both of them or the preparation for a long attrition war. Washington which does not bear the presence of ISIS and Al Nusra in the light of the collapse of the security in the countries of the West finds itself that it is in front of the time pressure and its entitlements, between its urgent electoral needs for an impossible achievement without Russia, Syria or Iran in Syria and Iraq and the threat of the rootedness of ISIS and Al Nusra and their representation an increasing threat against the West, in addition to the west’ recognition that the crucial blow against them will not be in Syria and Iraq, with the cooperation of Russia, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah, or it will not be, so the needed cost will be through terminating the bilingual language publicly between the public call for the departure of the Syrian President and the cooperation with him publicly as an essential term, and the ability to attract the Turkish and the Saudi to this cooperation, in addition to the ability to go on in this course without Saudi Arabia or Turkey in the game of the next region. This is in addition to the consideration of the security of Israel and its requirements and the position of the war against Hezbollah and combining it with its presence as a pivotal partner in the coming wars, in contrast the degree of the ability to attract the group of Riyadh to participate in this transformation or the degree of the ability to go on without it, with an opposition that does not form a base for the penetration of the future of the project of the country in Syria.

Washington is aware of the deadlock of its allies from the confusing situation of Saudi Arabia between a professional settlement and a failed war in Yemen to the situation of Turkey between the growth of the Kurdish presence on the borders and the sticking to the hopeless support of Al Nusra Front, it is aware of its deadlock with it, as the deadlock of Israel which is unable to wage  a war of changing the balance’s equation with Hezbollah,  and the limits of the war of besieging without effective military action, in addition to the common endeavor with Israel to prepare platforms for the political initiatives on the Palestinian axis that mixes the papers, it is aware that the time is imminent. Moscow is observing in point blank; it seems that the month of the decisive negotiation is in July because August is the last month for achieving accomplishments before the elections, therefore appointing a date for the progress of the political process in Syria is not in vain, because the US withdrawal from Afghanistan will end at the end of the year. While it seems that the only option in front of Washington is the understanding with Moscow on presenting a unified government in Syria in which the opposition participates in making the early presidential elections in Syria after two years, which the Syrian President said that he accepted within a comprehensive understanding and after a war on terrorism, so this is an exit for Washington’s allies on which the positions are based. While waiting this month and its end, the fortification of the fronts of Aleppo and its countryside will be the task of Russia and the allies, therefore, the spokesman of the Russian defensive and security council announced supplying Syria of equipment and ammunition declaring that it does not want additional weapons, while the Russian Minister of Defense arrived in a surprising visit to Syria to reassure the allies by enhancing the presence in the field and treating all the points of weakness, in addition to checking the procedures of his field leadership in the base of Hmymim giving the necessary instructions.

It would be difficult for Washington to go on without allies, but it would be more difficult to go on with them but without horizons, it is the month of the decisiveness in the options.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,