Yemen enters the last quarter

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It seems clearly for the Americans that the bet on a crucial victory in Yemen represented by the entrance to the capital Sanaa means a war that extends for at least one year and ends with killing million Yemeni and a destruction of the majority of the cities and the Yemeni infrastructures, moreover this war will turn into an endless urban warfare in Sanaa and other Yemeni cities, in addition to loses of thousands of murdered and wounded of the Saudi and UAE armies and other  participants, in return of that number of long-range missiles fall on the Saudi cities, thus the  Yemeni chaos moves to the Saudi interior, and the appearances of fatigue start to be shown on the regime there, the terrorism which is represented by Al –Qaeda and ISIS expands in the geography of the two countries, this is what is mentioned in a report that is issued by number of American military and security participant leaders at an invitation of the Academic Brookings Institute in a workshop in which participated number of leaders of the American Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

At the time of transition which Russia has imposed on the Middle East, and at the time after the understanding on the nuclear program with Iran it is supposed that the end of the Yemeni war will be soon in a way that preserves the cohesion of the ruling regime in Riyadh, opens the door for a Yemeni political settlement, attributes in stopping the expansion of Al-Qaeda and ISIS  in the two Yemeni and Saudi geographies, the titles of the settlement become ready, it is an initial acceptance of Al-Houthis of the United Nation Resolution 2216 that is followed by Yemeni Yemeni dialogue in Muscat that will lead to an understanding on a government of a national unity through which Khalid Bahah enters to Sanaa after the abandonment of Mansour Hadi, while the Yemeni army will be led by figures that are acceptable by the two parties that will take over the responsibility of unifying their battalions and giving them the responsibility of the cities which are vacated by the militants who are supported by the two teams, in preparation for elections supervised by the United Nations with the partnership of security supervisors, military officers, and politicians to ensure the implementation of the items of this settlement. These are the recommendations of the American workshop that are in accordance with the representatives of Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs.

The Deputy of the Secretary-General of the United Nations says publically that the situation in Yemen must be towards the settlement quickly, because Al-Qaeda is expanding in Yemen, and it will be the only winner because of the continuation of the war, and that the negotiations without preconditions must be completed before the beginning of the next month, moreover the United Nations will call soon for such negotiations calling the Yemeni parties and the regional players in Yemen to support the success of this call without preconditions in order to save Yemen and the region form great devastation that will be the result of its failure.

The field developments in Yemen war say that the Saudis are dealing with brutality in killing and destroying without mercy, and that Saudi Arabia is waging a war against the Yemeni people and against the Yemeni civilization against the economy and construction, and if it remains on this situation continuing its war then Yemen will be the disaster of the twenty first century for all humanity with millions of defaced, disabled, homeless, hungry and sick before announcing Saudi Arabia its victory. The realities of the field show that Al-Houthis are taking their time in a war of a killer or murdered, it means in responding to the callings of Saudi Arabia for irreversible mad, and that what they sent of missiles into the Saudi depth is still having one task  “ do not push us to the wall and oblige us the turn the table upside down” the events say that the Saudi and the UAE armies are progressing slowly and confronting arduous war of attrition, and the regions which they suggest that they have control on are fallen, so they are obliged to invade them for a second and a third time.

The Saudi inability to take decision stops the war, it puts the international allies of Riyadh at their forefront Saudi Arabia in front of the need to say that’s enough before the rules of war will be out of control and if this does not happen then the whole Gulf will witness variables that are out of control as the Iranian researchers say, they consider that their government has provided Saudi Arabia golden opportunities to come down from the tree and to accept the language of negotiation and settlements while it seemed that Riyadh has not responded but only once when it accepted common arrangements to send the bodies of the pilgrims, this has happened after the Leader of the Islamic Republic in Iran had said that there will be a harsh response if they do not accept to send the bodies.

It seems that the American Iranian race to Saudi Arabia and Yemen will be after of the next month, where the Turkish elections will undertake in changing the region’s scene with the failure of the President Recep Erdogan as a party of the Muslim Brotherhood, despite the illusions of the reverse change, after the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs has given them money that is supposed to be useful for their winning in the elections, so there will no place for voluntary Saudi withdraw but beginnings for reverse attack that paves the way for a defeat the imposes a new map in the Gulf. For this reason the American and the national advices are given to Riyadh to accelerate the settlement before that date.