Washington, Ankara, Riyadh, and Aleppo

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Among the rare conditions which indicate to the articulated role in formulating the balances, the negotiations are revolving around Aleppo by proxy through the strongest two countries in the world Russia and America, neither  the negotiation occurs among the regional capitals which confront directly in the battle of Aleppo, nor the consulting is being hold with the major capitals, what is going on is the opposite, Damascus is negotiating with Ankara and Riyadh through Washington and Moscow,  this is not due to the similar conditions of  the allies of each of Washington and Moscow, it is clear that Moscow and Damascus are moving together despite all the promotion of the bets on differences and distinctions which quickly reveal by the positions and the developments, while the facts indicate and the conclusion confirms that there are approaches but not identical, and there are inconsistent attitudes between Washington and its two regional allies in Ankara and Riyadh.

Away from the speculations, and after the UN resolution 2254 has become the schedule of the political solution in Syria, and after the issue of the Syrian presidency is no longer an issue for the non-Syrians to decide in it, there are two clear controversial points left, The first point is in how to manage the truce in Syria. Second is in the attempts of investing the issue of refugees under the slogan of how to secure their shelter. It was clear that in the first point the armed groups which are supported by Riyadh and Ankara, and which Syria is classifying them as terrorism have formed and are forming  a matter of conflict between Syria and each of Ankara and Riyadh. It is clear that Al Nusra Front is forming the backbone and the collective principle of these groups, and that the hindering of the truce and ceasing-fire have been launched from that point and still. It is clear that Moscow is sharing its ally Syria the full position and adopts it to the level of the official goal of the negotiations with Washington. It is clear as well that the field developments which resulted from the Russian positioning in the war on one hand, and which resulted from the threats of the rootedness of terrorism on the other hand have permitted the Russian and the American consultations to reach the point of issuing the provisions of the truce which Al Nusra Front was excluded of them. In contrast it seemed that the Turkish Saudi acceptance of this concept has been settled reluctantly because of the lack of alternatives, and the fear of the continuation of the armed conflict which emerged on the basis of conditions that were not of their favor, as it seemed that the acceptance of the group of Riyadh was not explicit, it seems now that what is going on in Aleppo is an attempt of the coup on the truce’s provisions and its center Al Nusra Front, moreover its place in the Syrian map, the title of the igniting war there. It is not simple title for Washington to match it in politics even if its wishes were the winning of its allies in their bets.

The second point which the Turkish President carried and constituted the center of his policies for years of the war on Syria was  the secure area which based on the air embargo in the Syrian bordered strip where Syrian factions which are affiliated to Turkey are positioning, and which forms their negotiating influence for the future of Syria. The Turkish goal which extended for years before the Russian positioning was faced with American and western refusal lest the threats of waging war where the West knows especially the Americans that if they were able, they would do that from different gate and according to their own conditions, this means the arrival of the American fleets and their departure without waging a war on Syria, moreover the continuous Turkish goal after the Russian positioning has become a burden on the West and on the Americans in particular, so they were obliged to repel it publically, even when they used the plea of refugees to exert pressure on Europe which paid a lot but it did not accept the adventure which included the Turkish demand, and in the war of Aleppo today the Turkish moving reaches its limit and its peak but it is at the end line, this is the last opportunity and the last battle of the secure zone which he aimed to achieve it and keep his influence through it.

Russia has succeeded with the negotiating accumulation with Washington to set a diplomatic hierarchical structure for approaching the crisis and the war in Syria, where there is no possibility to return back, where the war on terrorism is the priority and its forefront, and that a Syrian Syrian settlement which can provide the opportunity of sharing a unified Syrian government that is approved by all is constituting an important accomplishment in forming a global and a regional front that is able to defeat the terrorism and to prevent its expansion and its threats. This settlement must be Syrian Syrian, and its internal vocabularies must be pure Syrian matter under the title that what could not be solved by negotiation can be solved by the ballot boxes, the ceasing-fire between the country and its opponents is creating a suitable background for this settlement, and that the classification  between the opposition and the terrorist organizations is a condition to ensure ceasing-fire, all of these led to the point which is resolving the issue of Al Nusra Front as an enemy of the political process, and resolving the dismissing of the secure zone. It is not easy for Washington to meet the Turkish Saudi appeals whatever they include of temptations and signs for suitable opportunities, to return to its previous position where it was three years ago, which it tested all of its opportunities in better conditions, it knows in advance and in details the consequences of the collapse of its understandings with Moscow.

Moscow and Damascus are now at the gate of Aleppo having the content of the understandings signed by Washington and UN resolutions that are issued by the Security Council, knowing that the gate of the new understanding is determined with previous understandings by resolving the battle of Aleppo as a war between the Syrian country and Al Nusra Front and as an application of the truce’s provisions not violating them, therefore through the classifying those who support Al Nusra opposing the truce and outside the political process, Washington neither can say that nor its reverse, but the war is coming and decisive and its consequences are not easy, because what will come after is different from what was before. Syria insists with its allies at their forefront Russia to resolve the matter there, preparing what is needed, while the allies of Washington as the group of Riyadh and its employers in Ankara and Riyadh have chosen to be at the loser alliance, so Washington has to choose between translating its commitments to the understandings, and ensuring an opportunity to bring what it can for the choice of settlement and truce, and between the confusion, the hesitations, and the getting out of the war without allies that can be relied on in the settlement. What Washington has chosen seems that it is a step forward and a step backward, and the resolving successively on the rhythm of war neither before it and nor after it.

It is the coming decisive war which will reveal a lot.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,