International regional 7th of May in Syria
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The missile strike in Syria in its limited field influence and its great political, moral, and strategic dimensions carried out by the US President Donald Trump is similar to what was done by the former Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora on 5th of May 2008, when he decided to disarm the resistance network betting on that the resistance will not use the surplus of its power and the prestige to change the rules of the game in Lebanon, whether in order to agitate the strife or to take into consideration the equation that the weapons will not be used internally, but the response of the resistance at the spokesman of its leader that the arms protect the arms, and that he will prevent any attempt to reach to it, and thus was the seventh of May which set the deterrence rules that led to the Lebanese Doha settlement.
Practically the equations of the world and the region, including Syria are ruled by the future of the US-Russian relationship, and what was done by Trump was to consider the management of this relationship easy by imposing a fait accompli, and diluting its size to use it to suggest that he has the upper hand before going to negotiation, in addition to sets of other considerations that are related to his image and related to moral support message to the collapsed armed groups in order to re-control the ranks of his allies behind him, but the essence is to manage the relationship with Russia by depending on that Russia will remain sticking to the principle of the cooperation with Washington for making settlements, and that it will not resort to escalation in position as long as the process did not make fundamental change in the military balances, and since it is not the beginning of the war.
The erroneous calculations and bets led once again to reverse results against its owner, the rush US thirty-six missiles which deviated of their targets have infected practically the US-Russian relationship in depth, therefore the first consequences is the stop of all the forms of the military cooperation and the security coordination, second, the release of modern qualitative weapons arsenal in favor of the Syrian army that breaks the equations of power in the region. Third, the Russian conviction of the infeasibility of granting time to the administration of Trump to arrange its cards for the negotiation and the cooperation in launching a Syrian political settlement within great cooperation in the war on terrorism, but the conviction of giving the priority to the field and the language of resolving against the armed groups which end all the opportunities which were granted to them in Astana and Geneva, so Russia will not respond to any attempts for settlements from a position of weakness, a secondary or a second –degree partner that is subject to facts.
Moscow will leave the facts to be revealed and to draw the tracks, it will grant its allies all the fiery and logistical support and the political and diplomatic cover for a rapid rolling fire resolving in many sites in Syria, there will be more than new Aleppo in many areas in Syria, moreover the moral support reached to the armed groups by the US strike will be scattered by the field in the near future, so the Americans have to appeal for a settlement at the gates of Moscow to prevent the achievement of the final resolving within months, to apologize for the exclusivity, and to commit to adopt clear fixed work rules under the pressure of fire and the war facts which were disrupted by the Russian sticking to the partnership and the cooperation and opening the door for the settlements, and instead of dealing with it in similar keenness it was dealt as a point of weakness that is subject to be exploited, this was practically happened before the seventh of May and this is what is happening today.
International regional Doha follows the international regional seventh of May, maybe in July in Hamburg and at the sidelines of the Twentieth summit everything will become clear.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,