Turkey will not be in the alliance of Russia-Iran, so where will it be?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Turkish President Recep Erdogan went to Moscow after a month of the accelerated normalization of the relations which passed into break and tension to the extent of announcing a war. The normalizing of the relations and the Summit have occurred after the acceptance of Erdogan the request of the Russian President Vladimir Putin of the public apology for dropping the Russian plane by the Turkish combat plane. Erdogan remained postponing for months before he uttered faltering the apology, knowing in advance that it is an announcement of a submission and inability to bear the consequences of the break and the hostility. Here we can understand the essence of the foundations on which the Turkish Russian relationships are based after the normalization. Turkey realized that it is at the gates of economic collapse while the West is doing nothing for it, only Russia can revive the vital paralyzed sectors such as tourism, agriculture, construction and banks, but each one of them has a great share in the economic cycle, where its center is the Russian market such as agriculture and construction or the Russian customers such as tourism and the banks. Turkey realized as well that the difficult costly waiting till the balances of the forces which their center is the war on Syria, get balanced is without avail. Because everything proves that what is owned by Turkey and the alliance which it belongs to and which is led by Washington is postponing the victory of the alliance which is led by Russia that supports the Syrian country. Turkey realized that the means of adjusting the balances of forces are what it has drawn as a framework for the action in Syria starting from the support of the NATO and America in particular to establish a buffer zone and an area of air embargo inside the Syrian borders and expanding the making use of the formations of Al-Qaeda organization militarily. It was clear through the crises in which it fell as a result of the developing of the escalation that the option of the military intervention is out of question for NATO which abandoned it when there was a collision with Russia, and that the investment on Al-Qaeda without overwhelming military presence in favor of the NATO and Turkish forces means giving it a base of launching which everyone will pay its cost starting from Turkey itself. The coup has occurred to enhance the certainty of the Turkish leadership that it pays the cost of what it has done, and that its allies are waiting for it, either regarding the human rights or the gloat of exposing to risk, or the waving of reducing the level of the relations and the cooperation. The Turkish leadership which is aware that it did that seeking for its new Ottoman dreams and has met the great Western project of overthrowing Syria is aware that the West has dealt with it as gambler partner wins if it won, but it withdraws and leaves it alone bearing the loss if it lost, making use of the craziness of Erdgogn by luring him with a big role, and thus he will exhaust his power, so if he wins we will pick the fruits of his winning and if he loses we will make him pay the cost by a coup or alike.

In return there are no illusions in Moscow and surely there are no illusions in Tehran, Damascus, or Haret Hreik for the  transferring of Erdogan from one bank to another in the equations of the region at least in this quickness recently, but it is a realization that without Turkey there is no war on Syria, it is driven and given the reasons of continuation by the abroad, and it is a similar realization that there is something that worth making an effort to adjust the position of Turkey that is equal to the effort which was made by Washington throughout years and months on the basis of the seeking for a minimum participation  with it in confronting the terrorism which approaches form the West and affects it, and the seek to separate between it and the factions which accept  to show the terrorism as a threatening common danger against the Syrians, and to separate between them and the world, and to accept to consider the war against the terrorism  a priority that precedes the priority of confronting the Syrian country and its army,  and the seek to overthrow its president. Moreover accepting a settlement that based on forming a government that sponsors the cooperation between the Syrians, them, and the world for the war on terrorism and paves the way for a new constitution for elections that do not exclude anyone whether a candidate or a participant under a degree of UN supervision and sponsorship which is enough for ensuring guarantees for widest participation, best representation, and widest internal and external recognition of the results. This is the concept of Vienna’s path and later Munich’s statement, the resolution of the Security Council 2254, and the insurability of the truce with the political process. The differences which turn the scale of the interest in the Turkish path in parallel in one hand and alternately on the other hand comparing with the American path are many. The time does not bear the unconcern of the US maneuvers in exchange of the zeal of the field and its requirements especially with the US presidential election period. In contrast, the Turkish American relationships are aggravated. So on the opposite bank Turkey is realizing its opportunity for winning a golden seat in the Syrian settlement and for having some compensation for its losses from the bets of its involvement and its progress in the war fronts on Syria for many years.

On the table of the President Vladimir Putin and the President Recep Erdogan there are texts of Moscow’s understanding which were approved by John Kerry in order to be ready by Erdogan. Putin asked; can you be a partner in applying this understanding which Washington does not have the ability to deny, but it escaped from applying it due to the fear of the electoral bids, and can you be the godfather of the separation between the elected opposition which is nominated to participate in the political process and between each of ISIS, Al Nusra front in its old structure and its new name. Moscow will commit itself to neutralize the groups which it proposes for the truce and the political process from targeting, provided that their exit from any engagement with Al Nusra front, Moscow will ensure as well not forming a Kurdish entity on Turkey’s borders and reducing the privacy degree to the minimum, and will ensure forming an opposition delegation for the negotiations that is agreed upon for a political process, its mission is to link the fate of the internal Syrian dispute with the ballot boxes and the going into forming a government that includes all the parties which agree on the priority of the war on terrorism in conjunction with the war on Al Nusra and ISIS. Moscow expects that the response of Erdogan will be a question; Does Moscow have a roadmap to play this role, Erdogan will be answered with a big yes, provided that the Syrian Turkish borders will be close in front of any human or military supplies, and when anyone resorts to you putting himself under your control, you should notify us even under the pressure of the war, those will increase and you should provide them with the conditional protection through their exit of the war. So after making a qualitative transition in the course of war on Al Nusra, the emergence to public through an initiative that includes the agreement becomes appropriate, and through it a call for Geneva with a new opposition delegation. Moscow expects that the meeting of Putin Erdogan will lead to understanding on a roadmap that grants Ankara Washington’s seat in the partnership till the end of the year. If it did well it would win and if it committed a mistake it would lose alone. The economic understandings will remain accomplishments that are granted by Erdogan for the media reassurance, but their implementation   will be in the beginning of the year.

Within the Russian roadmap timing and formula for normalizing the relations between the two governments, and between the Syrian and the Turkish armies to secure the borders, the intelligence cooperation, and the coordination in the humanitarian issue and the file of displaced. That was said by Russian media sources that are closer to Kremlin on the occasion of the visit of Erdogan to Moscow.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

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