Russia, Kerry, and the quintuple meeting: Fire escape, linking a conflict or negotiations?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The US Secretary of State John Kerry has announced his call to Russia for a common meeting with America that includes Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Turkey. Which is dedicated to discuss the political solution of the Syrian crisis, starting from that “the situation in Syria is no longer possible and that the harm and the danger are affecting many countries in  the region and in the world as a result of what is happening in this country” without telling us what is the new thing which had made him enthusiastic for such a meeting under the plea of the aggravation of danger and damage, and which was not present during the meetings which combined the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the American President Barak Obama and has combined Kerry with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov twice three weeks ago, on the sidebar of holding the United Nations General Assembly to have this American diplomatic genius for such of this proposal?

 The only new thing is the Russian positioning militarily in a way that turns the balances in the war against the armed terrorist gangs which have the coverage of the countries which Kerry sees the necessity of their partnership in the meeting with Russia at the presence of his government, this meeting will be at the level of foreign ministers or any subsequent level of coordination,  but the only new thing is the Turkish elections which present powerful assumption for an arbitrator failure that will affect the Turkish Justice and Development Party which Kerry wants it as a partner in the meeting before its expected departure, this departure will topple the government, which the US Vice President John Biden has said about in front of the professors and the students of Harvard University that it is the first shelter for the terrorist groups and it is the government which has been blinded by the hatred of getting rid of the Syrian President to the extent it intended deliberately and consciously and with the cooperation of Gulf governments which are preceded by Saudi Arabia according to Biden’ saying to spend hundreds of millions of dollars for arming these groups. So which concern Kerry is worried about out of the aggravation of danger and damage from that country, the concern of the development that stems after the Russian positioning which is followed by a reverse attack on ground by the Syrian army or the concern of the collapse of the incubator which constituted the shelter, the support and the operator of the terrorist groups from ISIS to Al Nusra Front, Al Fatih army and Ahrar Al Sham and the Army of Islam and others of the branched nominations of Al-Qaeda Organization?

Kerry has excluded France among his allies maybe as a penalty because its government has dared to present a project of deploying international supervisors in Al –Aqsa Mosque, but he excluded Iran and Egypt the two active and involved countries in Syria more than others, he neglects that Russia has announced through the spokesman of its Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Bogdanov the determination to launch what it called “The International Contact Group on Syria” it includes all the invitees which Kerry has nominated them except Jordan, in addition to Iran and Egypt. Russia does not have a problem with Jordan within the concept of a regional alliance against the terrorism, President Putin has nominated Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to join the alliance with Syria against the terrorism, but Kerry was talking about the political solution, so what is Jordan’s role except hosting it for number of the Syrian refugees that is equal to what Lebanon is hosting without making this a reason to invite Lebanon, which means that the three countries which Kerry has chosen have similar description as states that are responsible for gathering the terrorists, training, arming, and hosting their warehouses and their operational rooms. Now Russia is targeting them and the Syrian army having their sites, they disappear, so in anticipation of a disaster Kerry says that he is ready to sponsor a negotiating meeting between  these sponsored countries and Russia to reach to the solutions, Kerry nominated and considered it as a political solution in Syria, but his implicit intention is “come and let us bargain on arming these groups in exchange of ensuring their seat in the political solution and tempting them by stopping considering them within the terrorist groups in exchange of seizing the Russian and the Syrian targeting against them.

Initially, Moscow cannot refuse such a call, since it adopts the permanent call for wider consultation with the countries of the region to cooperate in confronting the terrorism and in finding a political solution for Syria that is based on the dialogue among the Syrians. Conversely Moscow cannot overlook the attempt of replacing its call to form “a contact group on  Syria” in preparation to Geneva Three Conference with a form that excludes active and friendly countries and of positive attitude of the war against terrorism like Iran and Egypt, and accepts forming a regional referentiality without them that takes the responsibility of continuing the war against terrorism and sponsoring the political solution in Syria. It is logic that Moscow is welcoming of the call and considers it one of two things; an opportunity to prepare for the meeting of the Contact group so it accepts the call, or a step towards the Contact group, so it accepts the call to expand, but it does not mind to keep Jordan as a neighboring country thus it adds Iraq and Lebanon out of the same consideration, in addition to Iran and Egypt certainly..

What is important is that the American enveloping movement is clear in its timing and goals, it has three aspects, first finding a negotiating platform about Syria to discuss the fate of Al Nusra Front and its similarities and to try to find a form that is presented to the organizations which the Americans and their allies call them implicitly” the red-handed” to have a negotiation with them about this form and to give them the opportunity before resolving the decision of terminating them on the lists of the targeted terrorist organizations, this is absolutely refused by Russia, Second, to find an escape for Saudi Arabia especially if the Justice and the Development Party has failed in returning to monopolize the forming of a government and drawing the Turkish policies by calling it to engage in the direct dialogue with Russia in order to have a ready platform for the giving up as in the Yemeni negotiating platform in Muscat, third by linking the conflict between Washington and Moscow about the complicated issue which is called the transitional phase in Syria in order to resolve it after the results of the Turkish elections.

The American call is implicitly an attempt to freeze the military qualitative current action in the northern of Syria which may surprise the Turkish elections with Aleppo; Moscow will know how to manage the dealing with this call on one hand, and how to make it lose its poisoned implications on the other hand.