Written by Nasser Kandil,
The region enters a new phase that is represented by the development of the first consequences of the failed war which was led by the United States as a culmination of the theory of the Soft war under the title of the Arab Spring, it aimed to renew the regimes which are affiliated to Washington under an elected Islamic title that is led by the Muslim Brotherhood and which Turkey is responsible for its leading through the project of its new Ottoman, hoping to overthrow the castles which the direct American Israeli wars have failed to overthrow or taming them at their forefronts Syria and Hezbollah. Thus resizing Iran as a regional country that has limited influence on the major issues of the region, and as an owner of a pure nuclear program. From Syria the war failed, and in Syria the forces which were crowded to wage the war against it have been impeded, and through Syria the fate of these forces has begun to be determined, after Washington was certain that it reached to the deadlock. And that the drawing the destinies of Al-Qaeda organizations in its two branches the official and the speculator, Al Nusra and ISIS has been started , where getting rid of them has become a double way to keep the West’s security, and the getting out in the glitter of victory that hides the defeat in the main war,. Now Washington is beating the drums of the war.
It seems that Saudi Arabia is as a line of defense in the soft war which Washington has waged, as Israel, both of them are standing on the bank of the losers, but with chances of getting out of the left escape doors whatever their cost will be, but it is less than the earthquake which affects Turkey, the central base of war which we just witnessed its first result while the consequences and the repercussions are still on the way. Turkey is facing the threats of split, and the civil war, while leaning towards the modest country seems to be less expected losses under the weak economy which is still getting worse and weak, a marginal army which is still getting worse and more marginalized, and a fragmented community which is still being fragmented, but with the decline of the strong country and the strong army it will get more fragmented, but within the series of the losers Qatar is positioned in the list directly after Turkey.
Qatar was not mere a secondary player in the Soft war, but it was in the first attack line where the form of its position and the importance of its satellite channel “Al Jazeera” were two sources for popular, political, and moral balance that enables it from forming the desired violation among the ranks of the forces and the backgrounds of the movements and the countries of the resistance axis, as Qatar has made use of the rising of the successes of the soft war and became who formed the governments in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, and anticipated to play a role of who will draw the future of Syria, as it has made use of its ambiguous position in the trenches of the resistance’s axis since the invasion of Iraq till the beginning of the Arab Spring, so it gained prizes as the size of sponsoring the settlements and the reconciliations in Lebanon and Sudan. It seems that Qatar has pushed the prince the father in the first descending of war with the resilience and the stability of Syria towards losing the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Tunisia in front of the difficult choices after the Turkish earthquake.
It is no longer possible for Qatar to depend on its money or its satellite channel, while it is surrounded in the time of the setbacks and the settlements with two countries, one is being welcomed to be positioned where it was before the Soft war, as a country of settlements and reconciliations, here Iran is positioning but this time with different conditions. The promotion of Qatar for the allies from Russia to Syria is not so easy, unless there is something attractive in the Qatari policy, since it has the modest size of population and geography, so the least cost is to disobey the Saudi leadership of the Gulf countries. On the other bank there is hidden Saudi lust that ambushed of Qatar to revenge from the game in which Qatar has gone too far in it at the expense of its bigger neighbor, it advanced the ranks without considering the return line. Saudi Arabia is the loser player in Yemen, and the seeker for a settlement and the loser which lost its papers in Iraq, moreover, it loses its bases in Syria, so there is nothing left in front of it as a moral compensation and possibly material after the Turkish earthquake but to aspire to join Qatar, not just getting the obedience of its leaders. Here it seems that the shield of the peninsula through an arrangement that is related to Bahrain is Saudi opportunity, especially that the Americans between the cost of protecting Qatar and the cheap cost which the Saudis will ask to facilitate the settlements of the new phase will not make out of protecting Qatar their issue.
Qatar is between the choices of asking the Iranian protection and the willingness to be put under the Saudi wing, the Prince has left so the emirate has gained a temporal opportunity, today the Prince is leaving in favor of a prince who is assigned by the Saudis, or the emirate will fall if Doha does not accelerate to make a quantitative positioning in at least the Gulf trench of the Iran.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,