Written by Nasser Kandil,
Once again we are talking about the interconnection between forming the government in Lebanon and forming the government in Iraq. The issue is not imaginary, because since the last extension of the Lebanese parliament, and the timing of the parliamentary elections in conjunction with the Iraqi elections, where there were no constitutional opportunities to extend the term of the parliament, the question was about the secret of that conjunction. After the designation of the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri for forming a new government in Lebanon and the passing through the stage of stand-still depending on the attempt entitled no one imposes a deadline on the Prime Minister in his formation of a government on one hand, and the talk about the delay due to the interference in the powers of the Prime Minister, where all the sectarian tools were crowded, and those who are involved to perform their roles in showing the delay in the birth of the government responded, as an expression of the strength of the sect and its status on the other hand, the surprise was the delay for months in the announcement of the results of the Iraqi elections. Furthermore, Both Iraq and Lebanon witness similar surreal scene regarding the governmental situation. In Iraq, no one knows the blocs which will nominate the Prime Minister, while in Lebanon it is a formation that is known for its lack of conditions for the birth presented by the designate Prime Minister. The title in the two countries is to suggest the closeness of the anticipated government, but nothing is true.
This interconnection which reaches the chronological correlation a day by day, since the election on the sixth of May to the announcement of a governmental draft on the third of September is not by coincidence. In Iraq as in Lebanon a US confrontation occured with the forces of the resistance in order to weaken their presence in the governmental equation to the extent of isolation and besieging, and a bet on the development of more effective variables to achieve this goal. Therefore, the bet on them is not in the acceleration of the birth of the movement in both Baghdad and Lebanon. The severe US sanctions on Iran will be carried out after two months, and the International Tribunal for Lebanon will resume its work this month, knowing that it is in the last stage of its mission for issuing judgments to criminalize the resistance with the assassination of the Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. All of that is to weaken the resistance forces and to convince the forces which it became clear that they are the weighing factors in the birth of the government namely; the Kurdish Alliance in Iraq and the Free Patriotic Movement and the President of the Republic in Lebanon that linking their fate with the resistance forces is a suicidal choice. That is why everything is being done to disrupt on one hand, and on the other hand, to make maneuvers that suggest progress to calm down the popular pressure which calls for acceleration under the need of a government, but at the same time without affecting the relationship with the important force which no government will be formed without it.
What was witnessed yesterday by Baghdad and Beirut shows that the manipulation with the constitutional path is continuous, and the birth of a new government will not suit the American timing, but only if it is a government that weakens the resistance forces and confines their participation formally. Keeping this gray scene in this waiting stage is continuous by Al-Hariri and Al-Abadi, but at the end, when the time comes and America loses its bets, it will not pay the cost, rather it will adapt to the new facts, and sacrifices which those whom it presented as title for the bet. Maybe, this is one aspect of the warning of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah “Do not play with fire” because the one who plays with fire, will burn himself first.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,