What if Saudi Arabia refused the settlements?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

We want to believe Adel Al-Jubeir that the meetings which combined the Saudi delegation with a delegation of Al-Houthis have not political dimensions, they are restricted with the Saudi keen on delivering hospital materials to the Yemenis, despite the announcement of a calm which will include the cessation of airstrikes for the first time, and we want to believe as well the speech of Adel Al-Jubeir,  Riyadh’s group Riad Hijab and Riad Naasan Agha that the negotiations which the Army of Islam is holding about a special armistice in certain areas in the countryside of Damascus are mere technical research to arrange the exchange of arrestees, detainees and kidnapped, and that the war will continue under the Saudi leadership till overthrow Syria at the hands of Saudi Arabia and its group politically and socially. We want to believe that Al-Jubeir and the Gulf Cooperation Council are giving the choice to Hezbollah between the woe, destruction and the bad consequences or the repentance for its disturbance toward Saudi Arabia, and that Iran has to be polite and to be committed to what Al-Jubei said, otherwise it has to expect the worst, and what has been said about contacts with mediators of Iran and Hezbollah is just a part of this notification.

If we believe Al-Jubeir and his chorus, it means that Saudi Arabia has decided separately to continue the war on the open fronts of confrontation against Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Yemen,  despite that the Americans are not ready to wage wars, because they search for settlements, they have made a big part of them with Iran without the knowledge of Saudi Arabia and another part has been done, and usually it makes settlements with Russia without the knowledge of Saudi Arabia, furthermore there is something mentioned in Washington’ reports which have reliable sources about the readiness of the Americans to communicate with the Syrian country.

We want to believe Al-Jubeir that the  government of resolution can take its decision and treats America as it was treated by it,  to go on in its war without the knowledge of America and America has made its understandings without the knowledge of Saudi Arabia, despite that we heard Al-Jubeir in August last year that America will pay the cost highly for its committing the dead mistake by accepting the nuclear understanding with Iran, and we heard him in last September saying after the meeting of his King with the US President that the nuclear understanding is one of the region’s stability guarantees, we will not consider the whole matter, but we ask what will Saudi Arabia do if it decided to refuse the settlements?

In Syria, Saudi Arabia can continue what it is doing today, to retreat its groups from ceasing-fire and Geneva Dialogue and to continue the war with them, while the dialogue and ceasing fire will continue without them. The international consensus today is that the opposition which fights ISIS and which the war on terrorism needs it is the same which was excluded by Saudi Arabia from Riyadh’s Conference, and which includes the Kurdistan Democratic Union and the Democratic forces of Syria, so what will happen is that the track of victories achieved by the Syrian army and its allies will continue because the abilities of the group of Saudi Arabia which is hiding behind Al-Nusra front, Turkey, America, and Saudi Arabia have been shown before Vienna Conference, and without these victories there was neither Vienna nor the new positioning of the Americans and who is standing with them, thus the dialogue will be better and easier without the group of Saudi Arabia, furthermore a new government will merge and get the international recognition, while the group of Riyadh will be crushed and will be out the equation.

In Yemen the war will continue and will enter  its second year, the Saudis will bring more mercenaries to protect their borders, they will appoint dates for their deluded victory, the battles will continue and they will lead for more massacres at the expense of the innocents, the steadfastness will continue, the Saudis will know that they will not achieve  victory in Yemen, because what is going on will continue going, it is the expansion of the geography of invasion, and the expansion of the fields of processes and missile strikes, in addition to the expansion of the presence of Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It seems that there is not ability of its group led by Mansour Hadi to establish a rule on the areas which are under the control of the Saudis, since they do did have control on them but nominally, thus at the end there is no ability to build a security military stability without a political stability, its gate is a settlement with Al-Houthis which will lead to a government and will end with elections. The Yemeni balances before the Saudi intervention show the sizes and the weights of each team; the supporters and the opponents of Saudi Arabia in Yemen, where there is no Yemeni battalion that fights defending on who is supposed that he is the supreme commander of the armed forces who is the President of the Republic, who has escaped from Sanaa to Aden to outside the country within one month. In comparison between him and the Syrian President, and the position of each one of them toward who is carrying the weapons against him despite the differences of money and weapon which come across the borders in case of who are fighting in Syria accompanied by Saudi Arabia, and who are fighting in Yemen and who are besieged by Saudi Arabia from every side.

With Iran Saudi Arabia will remain screaming after it failed accompanied with Israel and Turkey to disable the international understanding with Iran, it will fail in playing a role that limits the Iranian roles which support Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon and what Saudi Arabia calls as the growing influence of Iran. As Saudi Arabia and Israel did not dare to wage the tests of force against Iran, they will not dare for what will lead to a huge rapid fire which will end with a devastating consequence on Saudi Arabia, as long as Iran meets the Saudi craziness with wisdom, thus the corrosion and the fading will be the share of Saudi Arabia, but an advancement and growing sources for the Iranian force

With Hezbollah everything became clear, every pressure on Hezbollah is a pressure on Lebanon, its tools begin by reflecting the group of Saudi Arabia on one hand, and by the abandonment of Saudi Arabia of its influence in Lebanon which is based on money exclusively, not on the wisdom through which the encyclopedias of the philosophical publications of their kings are full of on the other hand, the most important is that Saudi Arabia discovers gradually that the prestige of the country’s position in the region starts to fade and a small country such as Tunisia has dared to say no in front of it in an initial exercise of the confrontation against Hezbollah during the meeting of the Arab Ministers of Interior.

Adel Al-Jubeir is like the loud sound radio in a car which has fallen and crashed in a valley but its sound still deludes the bystanders that the fallen car is still working.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,